Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

Instead 28 F-16, Try could get the weapons list delivered by Dijkstal, is this correct? Idk about the other weapons, but the Type-23 Frigates and the Kidds forward delivery are definitely something.

Theres a lot to process here. The Coalition, War on Terrorism, Australia, China, the OPM & GAM... Indonesia must be prepared for any scenario.
 
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25th January 2003:
The morning saw President Try Sutrisno speaking over the phone with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar. Wismoyo reported that he had arrived in Germany but that the American and British Embassies there are “asking to talk”. Try told Wismoyo to give them some time and deal with them accordingly.

It was after lunch when Prime Minister of Netherlands Hans Dijkstal, accompanied by Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Peter Balkenende, arrived at the Presidential Palace after a morning spent with the KADIN hailing the Netherlands and Indonesia’s economic ties. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat as the discussion got underway.

Dijkstal said that he had had a long session the previous evening with President of the United States John McCain, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair, Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello, and Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin and that he had been asked by the Coalition to convey the Coalition’s response to Indonesia’s stance on the matter of “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia.

Firstly, the Coalition had agreed to Indonesia’s request to abstain on the matter of “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia. The Coalition said that this was on account of the importance of retaining Indonesia’s support on the War on Terror. Special mention was made about Indonesia’s continuing zeal in pursuing Islamic extremism in Indonesia and the assistance which Indonesia has given the Philippines in fighting the Islamic insurgency there (“President Joseph Estrada of the Philippines has put in a good word for you”.

Try nodded in acknowledgment, inwardly happy that McCain got the message.

Secondly, the Coalition agrees that Indonesia’s existing relations with various nations, including with Yugoslavia and its allies, will not be jeopardized as a result of the Coalition’s stance towards Yugoslavia. The Coalition will respect Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy and that includes Indonesia’s relationship with Russia and the various aspects of that relationship.

“All four of them are happy with this?” pried Try “Even after what Indonesia agreed with the Russians yesterday?”

“That’s a reality we have to deal with given that the question of the 28 F-16s could not be revisited Mr. President”, said Dijkstal "Though we must draw a line if Indonesia was to cross over from buying weapons to anything resembling an alliance."

Try nodded in satisfaction though there was something disconcerting about the way Dijkstal was smiling; the smile of someone wanting to break some bad news. Thus it was that Dijkstal spoke about the Coalition’s response to the third component of Indonesia’s stance on Yugoslavia.

“A concrete answer cannot be given to Indonesia’s question about whether or not the humanitarian intervention in Yugoslavia constitutes a precedence because we would be dealing with a hypothetical, not an actual, situation”, Dijkstal said.

“It’s an interesting formulation, Mr. President”, said Try trying to keep his tone even “I’m just curious who came up with it.”

“All of the discussions are confidential”, replied Dijkstal politely but firmly.

There was an awkward silence in the room as Try processed the response.

“Actually, Mr. President, I have something to show you”, said Dijkstal “You can call it compensation for not being able to revisit the question of the 28 F-16, your Minister of Defense and Security probably already has a copy.”

Or compensation for not being able to reply whether we will face an international intervention if we’re facing separatists thought Try to himself.

Dijkstal produced a piece of paper and handed it to Try who studied what is being offered.

*Delivery of the 4 Kidd-Class Destroyers to be brought forward, payment installments to be spread out over an increased amount of years.
*4 C-130H Hercules as military aid
*36 M109A6 self-propelled howitzers as military aid
*36 M116 howitzer as military aid
*50 Cadillac Gage armored car as military aid
*30 Scorpion Light Tanks as military aid
*20 Ferret Gage reconnaissance APC as military aid
*2 Type-23 Frigates with a soft loan


The meeting did not last long after that as it was time for Dijkstal to go, Dijkstal saying that the United States is ready to hear from Indonesia once it has made its decision. Try and Dijkstal posed for pictures and held a quick press conference before Dijkstal departed for Halim Perdanakusuma Airport and his flight out of Indonesia.

When Try returned into the Presidential Palace, a gathering had assembled waiting for him; Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Wismoyo Arismunandar once again via a secure line from Berlin, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Edi Sudrajat, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo.

Try spoke first about the three components of Indonesia’s stance on Yugoslavia. There was relief in the room that the first two components were accepted but guffaws when it was said that Indonesia’s concern was hypotheticals. Ari Sudewo said the Coalition were ignoring the question either because they did not have an answer for it or they did not want to commit to something which they considered to be a situation unlikely to happen.

“Should we have pushed for a more definite answer?” asked Ginandjar.

“Not at the moment”, replied Ari “Right now we’re just innocently asking if what’s about to be done in Yugoslavia is a precedent.”

The meeting then discussed the list of weapons which Dijkstal produced and which was made available to Wismoyo in Germany.

“What I want to know is, are there strings attached to this?” asked Try.

“I don’t see strings in this, Mr. President, I only see the this as a reflection of where we have positioned ourselves in relation to them”, replied Ginandjar “We’re still a useful ally to have in the War on Terror and we’re in all but the name the leader in the Southeast Asian region. And while our opinion will differ on Yugoslavia, we haven’t positioned ourselves as an anti-American country the way Bolivia has since Morales came to power last August.”

“There’s also the part where by getting involved in Yugoslavia and while still having the War in Terror in the background, that’s less attention the United States can give to our region and to Asia as a whole and China will have Asia to itself because its participation in Yugoslavia will only be little to minimal”, added Wiranto “Japan and Taiwan will not be reliable until there is a change of government, South Korea’s priority will always be North Korea, India’s priority will always be Pakistan, the only one that seems to be prioritizing China as a threat is us, we’re the ones that has to be beefed up.”

“The British contribution is quite considerable” added Tanto as he went over the list of weapons at hand.

“It is”, said Wismoyo’s voice over the phone “The message I’m getting is that it’s supposed to be a warning shot to the Malaysians about getting too close to China and considering buying Chinese weaponry, like a Type-99 to try and exceed the Leopard 2 coming our way. The frigates are about budget cutbacks, though.”

“The Australians aren’t contributing anything”, Try said with a sour smile.

“That’s to be expected, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar “From their point of view, they don’t want to beef us up when they got various military and peacekeeping commitments in addition to the Yugoslavian intervention they’re about to embark on.”

“There is one invisible string attached, Mr. President” piped in Marzuki.

“How might that be?” asked Ginandjar skeptically.

“Which would look better?” asked Marzuki, ignoring Ginandjar “If we announced our stance on Yugoslavia and then agree to what they’re offering or agree to what they’re offering and then announce our stance on Yugoslavia?”

There was silence in the room as everyone thought through what Marzuki’s asking.

“If we agree to what they’re offering and then announce our stance, it will look like they bought our stance with weapons”, volunteered Wismoyo and there were mutterings of agreement in the room.

“So we have to announce our stance on Yugoslavia first and then agree to what they’re offering”, muttered Try.

“Correct”, said Marzuki.

“Are they doing this on purpose?” asked Edi.

“It’s just the dynamics of the situation, Mr. State Secretary”, replied Ari “There’s no reason for them to force us to declare anything because we’re neither for or against their plans in Yugoslavia.”

“But then again the United States and its coalition’s cause is an unpopular one, they look too much like they’re spoiling for a fight”, said Soerjadi “NATO won’t support an invasion. France and Germany have already spoken out against an invasion. Perhaps in lieu of support, they would be bolstered if a prominent nation from the non-aligned world such as us said something even if it is to say that we won’t get in their way.”

“We must make a decision soon”, replied Wismoyo “We have a whole lot of items being offered as military aid, faster delivery on something we’ve already purchased, and two frigates on very favorable terms. This and the weapons we are purchasing with the Russians will add to our strength.”

“I agree, Mr. President”, added Wiranto.

Sumarlin had kept quiet throughout the whole meeting. He only needed to make eye contact with the President a few times to know what the latter was thinking.

“What you all have said is true and I have determined that we should take the offer being made to us after we have made a statement on Yugoslavia, such a statement should preferably be made within the next week or so”, Try said “I think we should also call for all of the weapons promised to be delivered within 2 years of our agreeing to the offer.”

The meeting ended on that note as the officials began to depart with Ari and Edi hanging back.

“They accepted that we’re abstaining on Yugoslavia and they accepted that we don’t want our relations with Russia to be jeopardized”, Try began “I was hoping we would get something positive on their attack on Yugoslavia not being a precedent if we were to get into a scuffle with separatists. That was the answer I was most anxious to hear."

“It is too early to push on this issue, Mr. President”, said Ari “We don’t want to push to the point that people are asking if we are facing the prospect of separatist action and we don’t want the OPM or GAM, whichever way this information gets to them, to sense that we know that they’re around.”

---
This one was a tricky one to write because I wanted to emphasize the various reasoning and dimensions and calculations why Indonesia got the offer that it did.

The weapons being offered here as aid are some of things that were sold by the US to Taiwan in OTL but couldn’t be in ITTL because Taipei is advocating closer relations to the mainland. You also have two frigates being sold at a discount and with a soft loan by the UK that was sold in OTL to Chile as part of budget cutbacks.
Kinda funny that in a way Indonesia contributed to the Royal Navy fall as a comprehensive naval force because of their budget cuts. Those Type 23s should be still very young when they enter service if they accept the offer. A loss for Royal Navy but a win for TNI AL I guess.
 
25th January 2003:
The morning saw President Try Sutrisno speaking over the phone with Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar. Wismoyo reported that he had arrived in Germany but that the American and British Embassies there are “asking to talk”. Try told Wismoyo to give them some time and deal with them accordingly.

It was after lunch when Prime Minister of Netherlands Hans Dijkstal, accompanied by Dutch Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Peter Balkenende, arrived at the Presidential Palace after a morning spent with the KADIN hailing the Netherlands and Indonesia’s economic ties. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat as the discussion got underway.

Dijkstal said that he had had a long session the previous evening with President of the United States John McCain, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Tony Blair, Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello, and Prime Minister of Canada Paul Martin and that he had been asked by the Coalition to convey the Coalition’s response to Indonesia’s stance on the matter of “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia.

Firstly, the Coalition had agreed to Indonesia’s request to abstain on the matter of “humanitarian intervention” in Yugoslavia. The Coalition said that this was on account of the importance of retaining Indonesia’s support on the War on Terror. Special mention was made about Indonesia’s continuing zeal in pursuing Islamic extremism in Indonesia and the assistance which Indonesia has given the Philippines in fighting the Islamic insurgency there (“President Joseph Estrada of the Philippines has put in a good word for you”.

Try nodded in acknowledgment, inwardly happy that McCain got the message.

Secondly, the Coalition agrees that Indonesia’s existing relations with various nations, including with Yugoslavia and its allies, will not be jeopardized as a result of the Coalition’s stance towards Yugoslavia. The Coalition will respect Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy and that includes Indonesia’s relationship with Russia and the various aspects of that relationship.

“All four of them are happy with this?” pried Try “Even after what Indonesia agreed with the Russians yesterday?”

“That’s a reality we have to deal with given that the question of the 28 F-16s could not be revisited Mr. President”, said Dijkstal "Though we must draw a line if Indonesia was to cross over from buying weapons to anything resembling an alliance."

Try nodded in satisfaction though there was something disconcerting about the way Dijkstal was smiling; the smile of someone wanting to break some bad news. Thus it was that Dijkstal spoke about the Coalition’s response to the third component of Indonesia’s stance on Yugoslavia.

“A concrete answer cannot be given to Indonesia’s question about whether or not the humanitarian intervention in Yugoslavia constitutes a precedence because we would be dealing with a hypothetical, not an actual, situation”, Dijkstal said.

“It’s an interesting formulation, Mr. President”, said Try trying to keep his tone even “I’m just curious who came up with it.”

“All of the discussions are confidential”, replied Dijkstal politely but firmly.
Is the coalition have intel in regards to Libya? It feel like it.
There was an awkward silence in the room as Try processed the response.

“Actually, Mr. President, I have something to show you”, said Dijkstal “You can call it compensation for not being able to revisit the question of the 28 F-16, your Minister of Defense and Security probably already has a copy.”

Or compensation for not being able to reply whether we will face an international intervention if we’re facing separatists thought Try to himself.

Dijkstal produced a piece of paper and handed it to Try who studied what is being offered.

*Delivery of the 4 Kidd-Class Destroyers to be brought forward, payment installments to be spread out over an increased amount of years.
*4 C-130H Hercules as military aid
*36 M109A6 self-propelled howitzers as military aid
*36 M116 howitzer as military aid
*50 Cadillac Gage armored car as military aid
*30 Scorpion Light Tanks as military aid
*20 Ferret Gage reconnaissance APC as military aid
*2 Type-23 Frigates with a soft loan
That is more than I thought(which were only the C-130E as I mentioned before), especially since they are military aid, not being bought. Perhaps a carrot for Indonesia to pay earlier the debts if the War on Terror finished earlier perhaps.
The meeting did not last long after that as it was time for Dijkstal to go, Dijkstal saying that the United States is ready to hear from Indonesia once it has made its decision. Try and Dijkstal posed for pictures and held a quick press conference before Dijkstal departed for Halim Perdanakusuma Airport and his flight out of Indonesia.

When Try returned into the Presidential Palace, a gathering had assembled waiting for him; Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Wismoyo Arismunandar once again via a secure line from Berlin, Minister of Legal Affairs Marzuki Darusman, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Tanto Kuswanto, State Minister of National Security Soerjadi, Edi Sudrajat, Commander of ABRI Wiranto, and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo.

Try spoke first about the three components of Indonesia’s stance on Yugoslavia. There was relief in the room that the first two components were accepted but guffaws when it was said that Indonesia’s concern was hypotheticals. Ari Sudewo said the Coalition were ignoring the question either because they did not have an answer for it or they did not want to commit to something which they considered to be a situation unlikely to happen.

“Should we have pushed for a more definite answer?” asked Ginandjar.

“Not at the moment”, replied Ari “Right now we’re just innocently asking if what’s about to be done in Yugoslavia is a precedent.”

The meeting then discussed the list of weapons which Dijkstal produced and which was made available to Wismoyo in Germany.

“What I want to know is, are there strings attached to this?” asked Try.

“I don’t see strings in this, Mr. President, I only see the this as a reflection of where we have positioned ourselves in relation to them”, replied Ginandjar “We’re still a useful ally to have in the War on Terror and we’re in all but the name the leader in the Southeast Asian region. And while our opinion will differ on Yugoslavia, we haven’t positioned ourselves as an anti-American country the way Bolivia has since Morales came to power last August.”

“There’s also the part where by getting involved in Yugoslavia and while still having the War in Terror in the background, that’s less attention the United States can give to our region and to Asia as a whole and China will have Asia to itself because its participation in Yugoslavia will only be little to minimal”, added Wiranto “Japan and Taiwan will not be reliable until there is a change of government, South Korea’s priority will always be North Korea, India’s priority will always be Pakistan, the only one that seems to be prioritizing China as a threat is us, we’re the ones that has to be beefed up.”

“The British contribution is quite considerable” added Tanto as he went over the list of weapons at hand.

“It is”, said Wismoyo’s voice over the phone “The message I’m getting is that it’s supposed to be a warning shot to the Malaysians about getting too close to China and considering buying Chinese weaponry, like a Type-99 to try and exceed the Leopard 2 coming our way. The frigates are about budget cutbacks, though.”

“The Australians aren’t contributing anything”, Try said with a sour smile.

“That’s to be expected, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar “From their point of view, they don’t want to beef us up when they got various military and peacekeeping commitments in addition to the Yugoslavian intervention they’re about to embark on.”

“There is one invisible string attached, Mr. President” piped in Marzuki.

“How might that be?” asked Ginandjar skeptically.

“Which would look better?” asked Marzuki, ignoring Ginandjar “If we announced our stance on Yugoslavia and then agree to what they’re offering or agree to what they’re offering and then announce our stance on Yugoslavia?”

There was silence in the room as everyone thought through what Marzuki’s asking.

“If we agree to what they’re offering and then announce our stance, it will look like they bought our stance with weapons”, volunteered Wismoyo and there were mutterings of agreement in the room.

“So we have to announce our stance on Yugoslavia first and then agree to what they’re offering”, muttered Try.

“Correct”, said Marzuki.

“Are they doing this on purpose?” asked Edi.

“It’s just the dynamics of the situation, Mr. State Secretary”, replied Ari “There’s no reason for them to force us to declare anything because we’re neither for or against their plans in Yugoslavia.”

“But then again the United States and its coalition’s cause is an unpopular one, they look too much like they’re spoiling for a fight”, said Soerjadi “NATO won’t support an invasion. France and Germany have already spoken out against an invasion. Perhaps in lieu of support, they would be bolstered if a prominent nation from the non-aligned world such as us said something even if it is to say that we won’t get in their way.”

“We must make a decision soon”, replied Wismoyo “We have a whole lot of items being offered as military aid, faster delivery on something we’ve already purchased, and two frigates on very favorable terms. This and the weapons we are purchasing with the Russians will add to our strength.”

“I agree, Mr. President”, added Wiranto.

Sumarlin had kept quiet throughout the whole meeting. He only needed to make eye contact with the President a few times to know what the latter was thinking.

“What you all have said is true and I have determined that we should take the offer being made to us after we have made a statement on Yugoslavia, such a statement should preferably be made within the next week or so”, Try said “I think we should also call for all of the weapons promised to be delivered within 2 years of our agreeing to the offer.”

The meeting ended on that note as the officials began to depart with Ari and Edi hanging back.

“They accepted that we’re abstaining on Yugoslavia and they accepted that we don’t want our relations with Russia to be jeopardized”, Try began “I was hoping we would get something positive on their attack on Yugoslavia not being a precedent if we were to get into a scuffle with separatists. That was the answer I was most anxious to hear."

“It is too early to push on this issue, Mr. President”, said Ari “We don’t want to push to the point that people are asking if we are facing the prospect of separatist action and we don’t want the OPM or GAM, whichever way this information gets to them, to sense that we know that they’re around.”
To be fair, it feel like with these additional weapons, it could also be a way to lure OPM and GAM into a trap of doing a mistake that could be interpreted by the West as an unprovoked action against Indonesia (unlike what happen to Serbia
---
This one was a tricky one to write because I wanted to emphasize the various reasoning and dimensions and calculations why Indonesia got the offer that it did.

The weapons being offered here as aid are some of things that were sold by the US to Taiwan in OTL but couldn’t be in ITTL because Taipei is advocating closer relations to the mainland. You also have two frigates being sold at a discount and with a soft loan by the UK that was sold in OTL to Chile as part of budget cutbacks.
I wonder what the Chilean Navy would buy then ITTL.

Well, looking foreward to the next update then.
 
Okay, straight to the point,with a first glance at the polls pre-assassination, I honestly thought Balkenende would still be PM even in this scenario (that would perhaps involving a ITTL 2002 results that is more closer to the OTL 2003 elections), but who knows, any Dutch member could perhaps interject in this.
For this one, my argument would be that the trend around the ITTL world is for the moderates of the center-right parties to emerge as leaders. McCain in the US and Costello in Australia are examples. In the Netherlands I thought that the VVD would be closer to the center rather than the CDA.

Instead 28 F-16, Try could get the weapons list delivered by Dijkstal, is this correct? Idk about the other weapons, but the Type-23 Frigates and the Kidds forward delivery are definitely something.
The other weapons are pretty much "We're annoyed that Indonesia turned to the Russians, but we still want to be on Australia's good side". Australia's place in the ITTL Coalition of the Willing is pretty important because they're the reason why China is wanting to limit its involvement in Yugoslavia because of their agreement to export coal. But what I wanted to convey here is that there is tension, even within coalition partners.
 
Hehhh just Type 23 British truly something succeed to destroyed TOT (Transfer of Technology) scheme in the future. Well for naval technology only China, South Korea, French or Italia (Thales), and maybe Japan (after armament weaponry technology export approved). China definetely out because they are geopolitical threat. Japan too because their law against exporting weaponry technology. Conclusion only French or Italia and South Korea to advance our naval technology. Well on OTL we are buying Gowind from French and Bergamini from Italia. Both agree 20% production process on PAL. British only change their mind for sharing technology Type 31 after French and Italia succeed with Gowind, Bergamini, Scorpene and Rafale.
 
216: All Systems Go
26th January 2003:
Chairman of the DPR/MPR Matori Abdul Djalil and Vice Chairman DPR/MPR of the DPR Basofi Sudirman spent Sunday having lunch together as much in their DPR roles as in their respective roles as Chairman of the PPP and the Chairman of the PKPI. They held a joint press conference.

On the MPR General Session, Matori said that the MPR’s Standing Committee is still hard at work making preparations such as agreeing on the agenda and amendments to existing resolutions. All preparation will be finalized within a week.

On the President’s request to pass the Anti-Terrorism Bill into law, Matori and Basofi pledged to expedite the passing of this law before the DPR goes into recess for the MPR General Session.

As party chairmen and coalition partners, Matori and Basofi reaffirmed the PKPI and the PPP’s respective intentions to abide by the commitments of the coalition agreement signed last year, including to ensure the President’s re-election at the 2003 MPR General Session. When asked who the PKPI and the PPP’s vice presidential candidate will be, Matori and Basofi said that they await the President’s instructions.

27th January 2003:
At the JIEXPO the President and Minister of Trade Anthony Salim attended the opening of the Indonesian FMCG Expo with the President hitting the gong to mark the beginning of the expo. In his speech, the President congratulated Indonesian FMCG companies for penetrating into new markets and slowly building their brand in those new markets. As the President toured the various FMCG stands and booths, Anthony highlighted Nigeria as a market where Indonesian FMCGs has done well but he also mentioned Papua New Guinea’s enthusiasm for Indonesian FMCGs saying that this was a reminder not to neglect markets closer to home.

At the DPR Building Vice Chairman of the DPR Hartono said that the President “must understand it” if the Anti-Terrorism Law is not passed before the MPR General Session.

28th January 2003:
The President travelled to Karawang, West Java where, accompanied by Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Health Azrul Azwar, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, and Head of BPOM Umar Anggara Jenie, he inaugurated the following:

*PT. Aisin Indonesia Automotive’s automotive components factory in Karawang, West Java
*PT. Bridgestone Indonesia’s third tyre factory in Purwakarta, West Java
*PT. Omron Manufacturing Indonesia’s electronics components factory expansion in Cikarang, West Java
*PT. Kalbe Farma’s first medicinal raw materials and biopharmaceuticals factory in Cikarang, West Java

“I want all of us here and across the nation to not only take notice of the factories we have completed here but also the fact that we are strengthening the structure of our industries by producing more of our own automotive components, electronics components, and raw materials for our pharmaceutical industries”, said the President in his speech.

29th January 2003:
After a meeting with the President, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita held a press conference. Ginandjar said that the Indonesian Government wishes to convey its thanks to Singapore and Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong for mediating and defusing a developing situation between Thailand and Cambodia. The media in Cambodia has claimed that a Thai Actress had said that Cambodia’s Angkor Wat Temple belonged to Thailand. It has been found that the comment made has been taken out of context and that with Singapore’s mediation, Thailand has agreed to take action to censor the potentially offending comment and Cambodia has agreed to exercise restraint. Ginandjar said that in order for ASEAN to remain focused on preparations for the resumption of AFTA, the situation in the region must remain conducive.

Ginandjar said that he and the President also watched the State Union Address delivered by President of the United States John McCain. He was immediately asked about McCain’s vehement condemnation of President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic for “humanitarian crimes in Montenegro” and “stealing elections in Montenegro and Yugoslavia as a whole” as well as the invasion and military overthrow of Milosevic being very real prospects now with the speech. Ginandjar replied that the time for all nations to formulate their stance on Yugoslavia if they haven’t already. Ginandjar conveyed the President’s words that Indonesia will announce its stance in the very near future.

Asked whether there was still unfinished work to be done before the term was done, Ginandjar replied that the President and himself are due to attend the D-8 Summit in Tehran next week.

There was a question about Indonesia’s role as the chair and hosts of ASEAN in 2003. Ginandjar only said that this was a matter probably better raised in the next term of government. This provided an opening for questions about what was in the future for Ginandjar. Rather than his usual answer that he paid no attention to domestic politics, Ginandjar had a different answer.

“The MPR General Session is only a month away”, Ginandjar said “I believe I will know the answer before then.”

30th January 2003:
The President met with Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Finance Mar’ie Muhammad, Governor of BI Boediono, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat at the Presidential Palace.

The topic of discussion was economic prospects in 2003. Dorodjatun reported that Indonesian coal prices will continue to creep upwards on the back of strong demand both domestic and foreign. Revenue from coal is expected to increase, especially after Indonesia secures a large market for its coal exports in India. Another source of growth will be FMCG markets in Africa becoming more established after a solid year in 2002 and Indonesian FMCG companies are taking steps to expand production to meet that demand by building new factories or expanding existing ones.

The President said that he hopes the moratorium on the construction of new government offices announced in the Draft Budget will free up and drive down the prices of building materials and other construction materials that could be used to build houses. Boediono agreed, saying that the construction industry was the last to recover from the Asian Financial Crisis, it had very strong years in 2001 and 2002 but quickly showed signs of overheating so it needs to be cooled down.

Mar’ie said that the DPR has adopted the stance that the Draft Budget would only be passed after the MPR General Session. This is to give a new government a chance to withdraw the Draft Budget and formulate its own budget in the event of this current government’s “termination”.

The President asked about the likely impact of the United States’ and its allies’ attack on Yugoslavia on the world economy. Sumarlin said that as long as the war is limited to Yugoslavia and does not become a wider conflict, the international economy should be all right. In a twisted way, Sumarlin said, it was good that Yugoslavia is the target rather than somewhere in the Middle East. Considering that Indonesia is a net oil importer now, this will help keep oil prices stable and in turn keep costs down and inflation down in Indonesia.

31st January 2003:
Arriving early in the morning at Surabaya, East Java, the President and the presidential entourage made their way to Jombang to Tebuireng Islamic Boarding School, the site of Nahdlatul Ulama’s (NU) 80th anniversary. The President was welcomed warmly by the NU members and was greeted effusively by Chairman of the NU Abdurrahman Wahid. The two walked arm in arm to the location where 80th anniversary celebration was to be held.

Though he highlighted the things which has been achieved by the NU in its 80 years of existence, Wahid paid particular attention to his special guest. Referring to the President as “Cak Su”, Wahid hailed him as both “the current and the next President of the Republic of Indonesia”. Wahid said that the last 5 years has seen a “noticeable decrease in the sectarianism which marked the last few years of the previous government” and that this positive development should be continued and built upon in the next 5 years. Also in attendance and watching from the crowd, Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais just chuckled to himself hearing this.

In his keynote speech, the President congratulated NU on what it has achieved, acknowledged Wahid’s comments on the decrease in sectarianism as part of achieving a “Pancasila State”, and added there are a whole lot of other things he has been proud to have done in the last 5 years in various areas of policy.

“The constant theme in what has been achieved in the last 5 years, is that we as a nation have not been afraid to make our own path and we will continue to do that”, said the President “One matter that the world is paying attention to right now is the matter of Yugoslavia. On the grounds of human rights abuses being perpetrated by the Yugoslavian Government and non-acknowledgment of an election result in Montenegro, the United States and its Coalition is considering a military intervention up to and including a ground invasion and regime change.

Each and every nation must make its stance known on this matter, including the Republic of Indonesia and our stance are as follows…”

Thus it was that the President took the opportunity of attending the 80th Anniversary of the Nahdlatul Ulama to outline publicly Indonesia’s stance on Yugoslavia. That it “abstains” on the matter of whether or not it supports or condemns the United States’ and its Coalition’s impending attack on Yugoslavia and that it will continue to maintain relations with Yugoslavia and the nations supporting it in the conflict, including Russia.

2nd February 2003:
Speaking at a meeting with PNI members who will attend the MPR General Session as delegates, Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri called the President’s stance on Yugoslavia “no stance at all” and that Indonesia, has abandoned Yugoslavia.

Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar was seen arriving at the Presidential Palace on this Sunday where he met with the President. Wismoyo reported that he had communicated Indonesia’s acceptance of what was offered by the United States and the United Kingdom to the two respective nations. They have replied in the affirmative and that they will attempt to ensure delivery of the weapons within two years.

3rd February 2003:
At the Bogor Presidential Palace, the President accompanied by Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas opened the Governors, Regents, and Mayors Work Meeting. The President in his speech highlighted the general success of regional governments in implementing the policies of the central government and in taking on responsibilities delegated to it on the basis of deconcentration. For the future, however, the President asked that regional governments need to improve services especially when such services involves direct interaction with the public. This is the purpose of the Public Service Bill that has been introduced to the DPR.

The President and Harsudiono mingled with various governors, regents, and mayors and found that the regional governments were most grateful for the assistance given by Minister of Tourism Soeyono in helping identify tourism sites that could be promoted and could generate revenue.

One regional official most keen to speak with the President and Harsudiono was Governor of Maluku Suaidi Marasabessy. At the same time that Prime Minister of the Netherlands Hans Dijkstal had been in Jakarta the previous week, Suaidi had been in the Netherlands and had made contact with members of the Republic of South Maluku.

“They are willing to acknowledge the Republic of Indonesia’s authority over the entirety of Maluku, that they will cease their activities and dissolve, Mr. President and Mr. Minister of Home Affairs”, reported Suaidi.

“But there’s no such thing as a free lunch is there, Mr. Governor?” asked Harsudiono wrily.

“They’re asking that Maluku be made a Special Region with special provisions that would only apply to Maluku”, replied Suaidi.

Harsudiono scoffed at this while the President shook his head slowly.

“I don’t think it’s wise to grant Special Region status to further provinces, Mr. Governor”, said the President “Mostly because that will just motivate all the other provinces to ask for the same. If every province is a Special Region then there is no such thing as a Special Region. Let’s just leave it at Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Aceh, Irian Jaya, and East Timor.”

The President and Harsudiono began to walk away.

“I would ask that you consider this, Mr. President”, urged Suaidi “They also claim that they have information about a possible threat to the Republic and would only give that information if you commit to give that Special Region status to Maluku.”

“I’ll talk to them when they have dropped that request”, said the President.

4th February 2003:
At the DPR/MPR building, Chairman of the MPR Matori Abdul Djalil had a press conference flanked by Vice Chairmen of the MPR Hartono, Basofi Sudirman, Nyoman Suwisma, Alex Litaay, Edwin Soeryadjaya, and Mario Carrascalao. Matori said that the MPR’s Standing Committee, headed by Carrascalao had completed all the prepatory work for the 2003 MPR General Session in cooperation with the representatives of all the MPR’s delegations.

Carrascalao reported that the prepatory work covered various aspects of the MPR Session such as the MPR Session’s agenda and draft resolutions including the proposed updated rules for the presidential elections itself. The agenda has been locked in but the draft resolutions will still need to be approved at the MPR General Session by all 1000 MPR Delegates.

The President watched all this from the VIP Room at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport, watching until the press conference was finished before he stood up and got ready for his flight. As he walked out of the VIP Room, there were a lot of microphones thrust at the President’s face asking for his thoughts about what he had just seen.

“The MPR General Session is all systems go, I just have this trip to attend to and then I too will be all systems go for the MPR General Session”, said the President.

---
Chapter title refers to both the military operations against Yugoslavia and the MPR General Session now being “ready” to happen.

OTL Gus Dur is seen as seeing the final years of the New Order as having sectarian tendencies as a result of Soeharto's utilization of political Islam to balance ABRI (with Try as commander and Edi Sudrajat as Army Chief of Staff) whose loyalty he was starting to question https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...ectarianism+icmi&pg=PA183&printsec=frontcover

Everybody remembers the GAM or the OPM, but I daresay that the RMS is often forgotten https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_South_Maluku
 
Well, their economy, and thus oil consumption is growing at a rate that would probably even outstrip the production, and as of now, the Cepu Block is still in development and only be producing (not much in the scale of things in Indonesia) oil in October 2004 at the earliest, although there should be a program to upgrading and renewing the (aging) facilities especially those that has experience a reduction of the oil production perhaps.
 
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“I would ask that you consider this, Mr. President”, urged Suaidi “They also claim that they have information about a possible threat to the Republic and would only give that information if you commit to give that Special Region status to Maluku.”

“I’ll talk to them when they have dropped that request”, said the President.
And here we go, more and more signs has dropped but Try is still remained confident as ever. March 2003 is looking more and more interesting.
 
Also, the number of provinces in Indonesia is still 27, right? No new provinces such as North Moluccas (in which the reason it was created is only to give the Southern Moluccans more free hand without involving the north).
 
Also, the number of provinces in Indonesia is still 27, right? No new provinces such as North Moluccas (in which the reason it was created is only to give the Southern Moluccans more free hand without involving the north).
Still 27 Provinces. No new provinces. But the list of Daerah Istimewa includes Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Aceh, Irian Jaya, and East Timor.

The relationship between the Central Government and the Regional Governments is on the basis of deconcentration rather than decentralization. Under deconentration whatever authority the ITTL regional government gets, it's something that's been delegated to them rather than permanently transferred to them under decentralization. The concept actually exists under OTL Otonomi Daerah for certain functions but obviously most of the Central-Regional Government relations is conducted on the basis of decentralization. Fore more on deconcentration, check out https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekonsentrasi

I think a few pages back you asked about how governors, regents, and mayors are elected. That one is something where ITTL is more centralized than OTL because governors are directly appointed by the president. regents and mayors are appointed by the minister of home affairs. That one was decided all the way back in ITTL 2000 to avoid situations where a Tutut sympathizer becomes a governor as in the case of ITTL Prabowo being discharged for Tim Mawar and then going on to become Governor of Central Java.

On a random note:
In the first 10 seconds of this video, you'll see Try. And then the camera will zoom out and show a shorter white-haired man with glasses sitting to his left (our right). This man is JB Sumarlin, the ITTL VP of Indonesia. In this OTL video he is attending in his capacity as Chairman of the BPK (State Audit Agency), this is an agency which is constitutionally responsible for acting as an external financial auditor of the government. So you can see what Try and Sumarlin looks like side by side.

And of course, someone who will be familiar to those of you who follow this TL for foreign policy-related matters: Ginandjar Kartasasmita seen here in his OTL 1998 capacity as Minister of Economics. I daresay during the Habibie Presidency he was the 3rd most powerful person in the government after Habibie and Wiranto.
 
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Still 27 Provinces. No new provinces. But the list of Daerah Istimewa includes Jakarta, Yogyakarta, Aceh, Irian Jaya, and East Timor.

The relationship between the Central Government and the Regional Governments is on the basis of deconcentration rather than decentralization. Under deconentration whatever authority the ITTL regional government gets, it's something that's been delegated to them rather than permanently transferred to them under decentralization. The concept actually exists under OTL Otonomi Daerah for certain functions but obviously most of the Central-Regional Government relations is conducted on the basis of decentralization. For more on deconcentration, check out https://id.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekonsentrasi
Yeah, i know already about that, and without UU Otonomi Daerah, the provinces is still more-or-less following the central government closely than OTL.
I think a few pages back you asked about how governors, regents, and mayors are elected. That one is something where ITTL is more centralized than OTL because governors are directly appointed by the president. regents and mayors are appointed by the minister of home affairs. That one was decided all the way back in ITTL 2000 to avoid situations where a Tutut sympathizer becomes a governor as in the case of ITTL Prabowo being discharged for Tim Mawar and then going on to become Governor of Central Java.
Ah, okay. Thanks for the info.
 
FMCGs are doing well in Nigeria and PNG. Are there other prospects on schedule? Definetly its a winner move.
There will be something about this in the next chapter.

Damn didn't know he was this powerful... And the way i first found out about him were from his son wikipedia page lmao
I think it was mostly because he was Coordinating Minister of Economics during an economic crisis. But he was also competent because by the end of Soeharto and during Habibie’s presidency he was the person the IMF wanted to deal with when it comes to negotiating with the Indonesian government.
 
217: The Final Overseas Trip Of The Term
5th February 2003:
The White Palace where Shah Reza Pavlevi used to reside in Tehran, Iran provided the backdrop as President of Iran Mohammad Khatami opened the D-8 Summit. In the audience, President Try Sutrisno applauded alongside his fellow heads of state and government who had come to attend the summit.

Unlike past summits, where he focused on bilateral meetings, Try concerned himself with assisting Khatami with formulating the communique the latter wanted the summit to produce. The three issues Khatami wanted the communique to cover was continuing commitment to fight against terrorism, deepening economic cooperation, and a statement on the United States and its Coalition’s impending attack on Yugoslavia. Try and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita took upon themselves the duty of lobbying some of the delegations present there.

Over lunch, Try and Ginandjar got the chance to sit with President of Pakistan Aziz Khan who was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Inam ul-Haq. Aziz began by saying that “aggression was aggression” whether directed against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, or those of the Islamic faith. Try countered by saying that whatever action is taken should be considered on a case by case basis instead of using a blanket label such as aggression and called on Pakistan to play a more constructive role against terrorism.

“We acknowledge and support the new government in Afghanistan, Mr. President, I believe that is constructive enough”, said Aziz before glaring at Try “I think the United States and other…so-called Muslim nations have already committed aggressive acts in the name of taking action against terrorism.”

Try bit his tongue. Wanting to say something about the possibility of members of the Taliban or, for that matter, the Al-Qaeda hiding in Pakistan but wanting to pick his fights.

That was the way it went with Aziz trying to verbally joust Try and Try politely countering while Ginandjar and Inam ul-Haq tried to get agreement on wording for the communique.

After a while, Aziz raised a geopolitical rather than religious concern. He asked whether it was wise to “gang up” on China through the agreements Indonesia and India signed the previous month. Try retorted by saying that the agreements signed with India last month was of an “economic nature”. Aziz smiled at this.

“The Chinese are helping to build us a port in Gwadar near the Arabian Sea but long term we want a corridor that would intensify trade, invest in infrastructure and solidify cooperation between our two countries. Of course these are of an economic nature too, Mr. President. But then this corridor from China’s western border to the Arabian Sea will go through Kashmir and I’m certain your friends in Delhi won’t keep quiet when the time comes”, said Aziz.

“What are you saying, Mr. President?” asked Try.

“I’m saying that I can guarantee your agreements with India will not be treated as just being of an economic nature in Beijing”, replied Aziz.

A less ominous meeting was with Prime Minister of Turkey Husamettin Ozkan and Minister of Foreign Affairs Ismail Cem. Try and Oskan found plenty to agree on not only fighting terrorism and radicalism but also against those with the intention of enacting Sharia Law in their respective countries. The two exchanged invitations to visit each other.

At the end of the day, Try met with Ginandjar as well as with Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat. Dorodjatun and Edi reported of their meeting with the Nigerian delegation. Dorodjatun said that he and Nigerian Minister of Commerce Mustapha Bello signed an agreement establishing Nigeria as the regional hub in West Africa for Indonesia’s FMCG-related business. Indonesian FMCGs will arrive in Nigeria en route to other West African destinations and Indonesian FMCG companies will establish their regional office in Nigeria. The aim over the next few years will be for Indonesian FMCGs to decisively enter the market in Benin and Togo to Nigeria’s west as well as Cameroon in Nigeria’s east.

6th February 2003:
Try had breakfast with Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak accompanied by Ginandjar and Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs Rais Yatim. Their talk was civil with Najib proposing that D-8 members begin working towards a Preferential Trade Agreement, a suggestion which Try readily agreed and accepted.

Najib was in a pleased mood. Chinese-Malaysian economic ties were deepening, the most notable sign of which was China’s commitment to direct Chinese tourists Malaysia’s way to help support Malaysia’s tourism sector. Try listened politely as Najib talked about how Chinese tourist agencies from Guangzhou were going to bring tourists from that region to Malaysia. The meeting was going smoothly, too smoothly and then it was time to wrap it up.

“I congratulate you on the way you’ve strengthened your military in the last few years, Mr. President”, said Najib as all 4 men stood up to part ways “But you must know, it’s not just the weaponry that’s important but the personnel manning it as well. The latest fighter jets and IFVs are nothing if they fall to the sea or get lost in the forest.”

For a split second Try thought he could see Najib smile smugly. In a split second Ginandjar saw Try beginning to give Najib a death stare.

“You have the heart of a minister of defense, Mr. Prime Minister”, said Ginandjar jokingly to defuse the tension as he and Najib shared a hearty laugh while Try forced himself to join in.

The second and final day of the D-8 Summit saw the joint communique of the D-8 Summit. On the matter of the War on Terror, the communique stated the importance of “Islamic-majority nations’ role” in fighting radicalism and called for more cooperation in that field. The final draft had called for the D-8 nations to fight Islamic radicalism but Pakistan’s push to avoid using the word “Islamic” was heeded. At that point Egypt and Turkey pushed for the sentence regarding “Islamic-majority nations”.

On the matter of economic cooperation, the communique incorporated Najib Razak and Prime Minister of Bangladesh Khaleda Zia’s proposals that the D-8 explore the possibility of working towards a D-8 Preferential Trade Agreement.

On the matter of Yugoslavia, the communique expressed “disappointment” of the United States and its Coalition to use force on Yugoslavia but adds that in the multipolar world, all nations including D-8 Members, must necessarily have “its own respective and nuanced stance on this issue”. In the press conference after the communique was read, Khatami said that for this part of the communique, Indonesia’s input was most appreciated.

There was a group photo and then the summit came to an end before the leaders began to head their own way. President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak gave a hard slap on Try’s shoulder as he said his farewells.

“You’re not the Guardian of the Two Mosques but you have the largest Islamic population and Iran’s friendship…and Egypt’s too for that matter, so that’s got to count for something”, Mubarak said “Boy, I’d love to see how things will be in the Islamic world in the next few years. But you have to get re-elected first, right?”

More melancholic was the farewell of President of Nigeria Olesegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo said that his PDP Party had convinced him not to run for a second term because they thought Vice President of Nigeria Atiku Abubakar had a better chance at winning the upcoming Nigerian Presidential Election. The argument ran that while it was true that the Nigerian Government must stand up against Northern States wishing to implement Sharia Law, the fight would be more credible if it was led by a Muslim at the helm.

There was a photo-op between the D-8 Heads of Government with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei though there was no one-on-one session between the leaders.

Try spent the afternoon talking with Khatami one-on-one about the latest international developments, how in the aftermath of President of the United States’ State Union, preparations for a ground invasion of Yugoslavia and the removal of President of Yugoslavia Slobodan Milosevic had begun with military build-up being conducted in Croatia and Albania. At the same time, Russia and the Belarus are channeling military aid and equipment to Yugoslavia.

Try said that what’s important now is that Russia and its allies’ involvement be limited to military aid but that they do not get involved militarily. Khatami agreed, he told Try that Prime Minister of Russia Vladimir Putin was in Iran a few weeks ago. Putin told him that Russia will “restrain itself” during the course of events and that the rhetoric about fighting the United States in Yugoslavia was just for public consumption.

“I’m curious, Mr. President”, said Try “For the United States, the whole point of this exercise is to show Russia that in a Cold War, whether the original one or redux, whether the USSR or Russia, the United States will win. What do you suppose Russia’s goal is if, as they said most of their rhetoric is for public consumption.”

“From what I’m seeing, they know the best they can do for Milosevic is to delay his removal for as long as possible and that when he is removed, the aim then will be keep his supporters armed for as long as possible so they can play the role of insurgents and harass the governments the United States hope to install in Yugoslavia and in Montenegro”, replied Khatami “Make sure that the United States cannot withdraw without the possibility of Milosevic reassuming power again looming in the background.”

“What you’re saying is, Russia’s goal is to get the United States stuck in Yugoslavia”, said Try.

“Precisely”, said Khatami.

7th February 2003:
A night flight from Tehran meant that the Try and his entourage landed in Singapore in the morning for a short informal visit. After President of Singapore SR Nathan welcomed him in a short ceremony, Try, Ginandjar, and Edi proceeded to Sri Temasek, the official residence of Prime Minister of Singapore Goh Chok Tong. Goh waited for Try accompanied by Minister for Foreign Affairs Teo Chee Hean and none other, much to the surprise of the Indonesian delegation, than Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew himself.

Try once again expressed his thanks for Singapore’s mediation in the “actress situation” that was developing between Cambodia and Thailand. Goh said that he felt Singapore had to mediate because ASEAN had just agreed to the resumption of AFTA and that he did not want Cambodia and Thailand’s dispute to jeopardize this agreement by escalating to the point where nations in the region are taking sides and China would be tempted to show its support behind Cambodia.

“Singapore’s concern with China is within the context of Singapore’s stance that the continuing presence of the United States in Asia is a force for good, but the United States’ attention has turned to Yugoslavia and will be firmly so once its attack begins”, continued Goh “Now with China not being as involved as Russia hoped it would in Yugoslavia, China will have a freer hand to advance its interests in Asia, including Southeast Asia.”

“From where Singapore sits, what is China aiming to do in the near future?” asked Ginandjar.

“Right now the new General Secretary’s aim is to get as many nations as possible to switch from recognition of Taiwan to recognition of the People’s Republic of China”, replied Teo “They only have this year to try to do that. Next year is a presidential election year in Taiwan and barring a miracle, President Soong looks set to get his comeuppance.”

“What about Southeast Asia more specifically?” asked Try.

Lee chuckled and those present turned towards him.

“By the United States’ decision to invade Yugoslavia and committing resources there, by China having a freer hand to advance its interests, this region will see the point that you want to make that China is a threat, President Try”, began Lee “The next few years will be interesting, because the possibility is certainly there of you getting what you have been aiming for the last few years: Southeast Asia united behind Indonesia’s leadership to counter China’s influence.”

Not long after that the meeting ended. After farewells, Try headed to the Dharul Gufran Mosque to attend Friday Prayer and then to Changi Airport to depart back for Jakarta.

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Oh boy, Chinese tourists from Guangzhou are heading Malaysia’s way in early 2003, that’s going to be all good, right?

Mubarak’s boast about Indonesia’s friendship with Egypt notwithstanding, that’s a pretty good analysis of where Indonesia is at power/influence-wise in terms as far as the Islamic world is concerned.

The “actress situation” between Thailand and Cambodia which Singapore mediated is events in the OTL being butterflied away https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Phnom_Penh_riots
 
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