Will address the comments above, but in the meantime...
11th May 2002 (Day 25 of the Election Campaign):
With a bright smile on his face, Chairman of the DPR Harmoko accompanied by Minister of Public Works Rachmat Witoelar inaugurated the Surabaya-Mojokerto Toll Road on behalf of the President. Interviewed afterwards, Harmoko expressed his pride that he had been chosen to represent the President. When asked if this was a reward for his strong performance campaigning in rural areas, Harmoko said that whether his performance has been strong enough will be seen in the election results. Harmoko also ridiculed Chairwoman of the PKPB Tutut Soeharto’s idea that the President’s activities should not be broadcasted even during an election campaign.
At a campaign event in Bali with Minister of Tourism Soeyono, Chairman of the PKPI National Campaign Hendropriyono watched on with a cheerful mood. Hendropriyono said that he’s just happy that the main thing the other side has got going for it is their funds but now they cannot use it because people are sick of being bombarded by the PKPB advertising. When asked if the PKPI can win the election, Hendropriyono said that it will be a struggle but they have a better chance.
Back in Jakarta, President Try Sutrisno was giving an official welcome to Prime Minister of Japan Taro Aso who had gone to visit the United States and Australia before he arrived in Indonesia. Once the ceremonies and the statements were out of the way, Try and Aso retreated into the Presidential Palace for their intial talks. Try was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat while Aso was accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Junichiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Hiranuma.
The initial talks covered strategic issues and proved to be a roller coaster. Within the first few minutes, Try and Aso quickly found agreement in their stance on China with Aso expressing his concern that China had increased its military spending, that this increased spending was not transparent and that this made China a threat. After Koichi Kato’s reluctance to “anger” China, Try felt nothing but relief.
The two picked each other’s brains on China. Try said that his objective is for ASEAN to move as one on strategic matters so that it can serve its own interests rather than that of the United States or Russia’s. Unfortunately, this objective seems to have clashed with China’s goal of wanting to expand its influence in Southeast Asia citing its attempted interference in the Vietnamese Communist Party National Congress and its immediate support for Gen. Khin Nyunt’s regime in Myanmar.
“We realize it is presumptuous for us to take on China one-on-one but this is why it’s become more important that ASEAN move as one if not on the other big questions, then at least on China”, explained Try “At the moment, though, we’re in a situation in the region where there are Southeast Asian nations that agree with us, that don’t agree with us and that are indifferent.”
Aso then responded with a comment that floored Try because it got him to start thinking about possibilities.
“I don’t think its presumptuous, Mr. President”, replied Aso “Indonesia’s economy is only slightly behind Russia’s. If Russia can get the United States to worry about turning its back, then it is well within Indonesia’s capabilities to cause trouble for China. My visit here is to ensure that Indonesia has even more capability to cause trouble for China.”
Aso then explained things from Japan’s point of view which boiled down to the fact that it was the second largest economy but it being “only a matter of time” before China overtakes it; though this did not meant he wanted Japan to roll over. The main problem he faced at the moment was that the current state of affairs would not last long. The circumstances of his predecessor’s resignation as prime minister was such that upon taking office, Aso immediately faced demands by the public to hold an election. The public outrage was such that Aso was only able to delay holding the election until after the Football World Cup at which point, Aso said, it is likely the LDP will lose.
Trying to be as polite as possible, Edi asked what would happen if the LDP lost. Hiranuma said that the DPJ will come to power and its leader, Yukio Hatoyama will be prime minister. Edi asked what would Hatoyama’s foreign policy look like. Koizumi smiled ruefully as he said that Hatoyama and the DPJ were pro-China in their foreign policy.
Aso said that at the present time, with limited time and a pro-China government on the horizon, what he wants to do is ensure that “someone will keep China busy” for however long his party will be out of power.
Ginandjar wondered whether India or South Korea would not have been better choices. Koizumi shook his head saying that India and South Korea are concerned about China because China being “off their backs” means they can focus on their respective primary security threats, in this case Pakistan and North Korea.
“Why us, Mr. Prime Minister? Why not someone else?” asked Try.
“I’ve always known that you were serious about China ever since you came to visit Japan last year and my predecessor didn’t know what to do you with you, Mr. President” replied Aso “But I knew I’m making the right call when a week ago in Washington. I was in the Oval Office with McCain and he showed me what the CIA found out about you…the coup in Myanmar, the missing general and his men, you’re evacuating them into Indonesia aren’t you?”
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That night, Aso attended a dinner held by the Jakarta Japan Club. In his keynote address, Aso urged overseas Japanese living in Indonesia to take advantage of the favorable economic climate in Indonesia and invest in it. Aso said that Indonesia is a nation of great strategic value for Japan and that by investing in Indonesia, overseas Japanese will also strengthen Japan.
Try watched the broadcast of Aso’s speech on the TVRI in his office as Edi walked in with more memos about what Aso wants to discuss during his visit. Try asked Edi what he made of the meeting with Aso.
“Based on the quick once over I gave to these memos, I’d say he’s serious about Japan using Indonesia to ‘keep China busy’, Mr. President”, said Edi “But from where I sit, with all that you want to achieve, it’ll be a shame if you don’t manage to extend your rent in this place.”
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Only 4 C-130s making the trip today with all four making second trip to take in evacuees.
12th May 2002 (Day 26 of the Election Campaign):
Chairwoman of the PNI Megawati Soekarnoputri and a group of PNI members paid their respects at President Soekarno’s tomb in Blitar, East Java today. During lunch at a local restaurant, Secretary of the PNI/Chairman of the PNI National Campaign Sutjipto reported that though short of funds, the PNI has been making inroads into the urban poor in Indonesia’s big cities and some of the secondary cities in the last few days; the PKPI’s effort not to lose rural voters to the PKPB leaving some vulnerable spots in urban areas.
It was a quiet day for Aso. He went to church at the Jakarta Cathedral, Aso being a Catholic, accompanied by Vice President JB Sumarlin and Second Lady Johanna Sudarmi Sumarlin. Other than lunch at the Vice Presidential Palace, there was not a lot he did.
At the Presidential Palace, the President met with Commander of ABRI Wiranto and Chief of BAKIN Ari Sudewo. The latter spoke first reporting that the Extreme Right has gone quiet for the election campaign. The likes of Jemaah Islamiyah does not care which party gets the most vote but know that if they try anything, it will make the people realize that the warnings about the Extreme Right are true and play into the government’s hand.
Wiranto reported that the overall security situation is satisfactory, however with the anticipation that the election will be close, there will continue to be tight security especially during the counting period.
Election security aside, the President told them about the CIA’s knowledge of Operation Chinthe and asked them “whether anyone else knows about what they’re doing”. Ari said he was not shocked that the CIA is aware adding that they had remained quiet to avoid alerting their counterparts in China and elsewhere. Inside Indonesia, Ari reported, the decision made to settle the evacuees in Army barracks and transmigration settlements means they are far away from the prying eyes of intelligence operatives operating out of the embassies and consulates. Ari also reported that the Vietnamese’s seriousness at maintaining the fiction that Shwe Mann and Co. are in Vietnam is keeping China and Myanmar from looking in Indonesia’s direction. The “leak” that the evacuees are probably in Australia are also keeping the intelligence operatives in those countries busy.
From a military standpoint, Wiranto said that the routes of the airlift and the sealift are designed so that the C-130s and the Kolinlamil and passenger ships are utilizing Indian airspace or in India’s EEZ as much as possible en route to India and back to Indonesia. Wiranto also expressed his belief that the operation should be well-disguised to the eyes of outsiders. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands through which the Indonesian airlift and sealift are operating is home to an Indian Armed Forces Tri-Service Command which had only been formed recently. Given the recent formation of this command, it would seem to anyone that would take notice that India is trying to consolidate on the formation of this command by increasing and expanding its presence.
“In terms of informing the general public, what kind of timing is being considered, Mr. President?” asked Ari Sudewo.
“Once the evacuees are all here and once the Election’s been held, I will look to make the announcement”, said Try “I have no idea how people will react to this.”
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The Kolinlamil’s KRI Tanjung Kambani as well as PT. Pelni’s KM Bukit Siguntang, and KM Umsini escorted by 3 Diponegoro Class Frigates arrived in Aceh and Medan. The 6 C-130s are in action with 4 of them making second trips.
13th May 2002 (Day 27 of the Election Campaign):
The meeting began early at the Presidential Palace with Try and Aso sitting across from each other at the table accompanied by their delegations. On the Indonesian delegation, Try was accompanied by Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Mining and Energy Djiteng Marsudi, Minister of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Indroko Sastrowiryono, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, Edi Sudrajat, and Head of BNPB Yusman Yutam. Aso was accompanied by Junichiro Koizumi, Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry Sadakazu Tanigaki, Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Yoriko Kawaguchi, Minister of Disaster Management Tadamuri Oshima, Director of the Japan Defense Agency Shinzo Abe, and Takeo Hiranuma.
By the time the meeting broke up and a signing ceremony was held by attended Try, Aso, and the delegations, it seemed like there was one heavy-duty agreement after another that was announced. The highlights are as follows:
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of the Trans-Sumatra Toll Road
*Technical assistance, aid, and investment for the construction of Soekarno-Hatta International Airport’s Terminal 3
*Investment for the construction of the Donggo-Senoro LNG Plant in Central Sulawesi and a contract to import LNG from the plant.
*Transfer of knowledge (training, seminars, experts, visits to Japan) to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian manufacturing specifically in the automotive/automotive parts, electronics/electronic components, steel/steel products, and textiles.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of Indonesian fishermen and shrimp farmers to educate them about fish farming management practices and exporting standards.
*Transfer of knowledge to assist development and capacity building of disaster management in Indonesia specifically earthquakes and tsunamis.
*A grant of three marine patrol vessels
By far the most important thing agreed upon at the meeting was Aso’s decision that Japan will cease to attend ASEAN+3 meetings saying that its relationship with Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations are already well-served in other forums. This agreement was the one that got the most attention by observers, reporters, and analysts alike; the consensus being that Japan just gave its blessing to Indonesia’s leadership aspirations in the region.
During the joint press conference as Try and Aso took questions, Edi could not help a chuckle. For all Hendropriyono’s worry that the President was not on the campaign trail for the PKPI, having the Prime Minister of Japan essentially talk up the President and what he has achieved has certainly got to count for something.
After the press conference, the Japanese delegation said their farewells as they got ready to depart. Try and Aso had a private lunch where they had one last discussion. On this occasion Try tried to pick Aso’s brains about how the United States and Australia saw Indonesia. Aso described Indonesia as being in the United States’ “good books” though not to expect much from their end support-wise in the short term because they feel they’ve already given plenty such as moratorium on the payment of debt, help with Freeport, and other things which they acknowledge they’ve yet to fulfil.
“And Australia?” asked Try.
“All over the place”, replied Aso “They know that you are their best bet if China gets too strong because you provide a buffer between them and China, they think it’s good that your economy’s flourishing but you finally putting money into your defense…there are some concerns about that.”
It was on that note that their lunch ended and Aso made his farewells. By mid-afternoon he had flown home.
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No airlift and sealift are made due to maintenance. At ABRI Headquarters, Wiranto chaired a meeting about how get the remaining evacuees to Indonesia at a quicker pace.
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Japan liked to refer itself as the Older Brother (Saudara Tua) in relation to Indonesia in its WWII propaganda.
Indonesia has a close economic with Japan in the shape of aid and investment. One outward symbol of this close relationship is that the President of Indonesia and the Prime Minister of Japan visit each other a lot. In ITTL, there’s an additional dynamic. By this time, ITTL Japan not only sees ITTL Indonesia as a place to import natural resources from, it is for the first time seeing Indonesia in terms of “Hang on, we could use them to counter China”.
Andaman and Nicobar Command
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andaman_and_Nicobar_Command
The projects mentioned here are heavy-duty and as usual happening earlier than OTL (ie. 3rd Terminal of Soekarno-Hatta that doesn’t wait until the existing 2 terminals are overcapacity). If anybody’s curious why the LNG project mentioned is not the Tangguh LNG field, the Tangguh LNG Field is languishing off-screen, it is a Bob Hasan project so the government is not in a rush to encourage it, ITTL Bob Hasan is probably diverting the money to the PKPB.
https://www.google.co.id/books/edit...q=lng+tangguh+bob&pg=PA30&printsec=frontcover
I’m not good with numbers but I did a rudimentary calculation using Indonesia’s economic growth rates mentioned ITTL and came up with somewhere between $290 and $300 billions which according to this chart (
https://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Economy/GDP#2001), places it above Argentina but behind Russia. Argentina’s is probably closer to Indonesia’s ITTL because it’s going experience pain but not to the point of riots and changing presidents every few days/week which happened in OTL (will explore this when we go around the world though I don’t know when). If you ignore the EU being counted as an economy on that website, that places Indonesia as the 17th largest economy in the world at the end of ITTL 2001.
I used this calculator to do my calculations of economic growth
https://www.omnicalculator.com/finance/gdp-growth. So for the 1998 GDP, I put the Indonesian GDP for 1997 in the “GDP in the previous period” and then play around with the numbers in the “GDP in the current period” column until the GDP growth column gets 3.9% which is the ITTL Indonesia economic growth in 1998.
That’s probably not the most accurate way of going about things but just want to see albeit in a rough way, how is Indonesia economically in the ITTL world.