President Forever Scenario: A New Spirit - 1980

[Ariosto]

This is the first in a series of scenarios I intended to try and create, going from 1980 to around 2008; however it has rather quickly become clear that I cannot independently make these scenarios, even outside of testing, and so I am asking members of the board for help in their development.

First a synopsis to explain the premise of the scenario.

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The divergence for "A New Spirit" is that Jerry Brown enters the Democratic Primaries much earlier than he historically did, and so it is he rather than James Carter that ends up winning the Democratic Party nomination, and subsequently the general election against incumbent President Gerald Ford. Despite a new sense of optimism that Brown brings with him into Washington, the feeling is quickly depressed by the economy taking a turn for the worse, being further deepened by an energy crisis precipitated by the fall of the Iranian government to Islamists in September of '78. Legislation in favor of clean energy sources was shortly after pushed through Congress up until the Republican Party took up the majority in the House in January, and though funding is no longer to the levels as proposed by President Brown, oil prices are starting to drop, with the initiatives winning the approval of the majority of Americans. Inflation remains a major concern however.

While the rise of the Islamic Republic in Iran was a notable political issue of the time, it was dwarfed in comparison with the movement of Soviet military forces into Afghanistan in June of '79. Publicly the Soviet Union justified their intervention in that it was meant to help the government lead by Nur Muhammad Taraki put down the insurgency that had developed against him. To most international observers however this was seen as nothing more than the propping up of a puppet government, and to those like Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson it was nothing less than the first stage of a Soviet attempt to expand their influence further into the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent. The Brown administration bitterly condemned the intervention and formally lodged a complaint to the United Nations, but quickly found itself divided on how to respond beyond that. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance had worked with Brown to create some weak yet significant economic ties with the Soviet Union which would be undone by any suggested economic sanctions, additionally also jeopardizing the proposed SALT III talks. Zbigniew Brzezinski on the other hand was in favor of cooperating with multiple nations in arming the Mujahedeen who were fighting the Soviets and for severe economic sanctions until the Soviet Union withdrew from the country. Brown would as he often did eventually side with Vance, leading to Brzezinski's resignation in September.

Brown's governance had not been a fiscally liberal one, and on the issue of balancing the budget he had found more success in working with the Republican House rather than the Democratic one. Cuts to social programs, especially in combination with a significant rise in the budget of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (which was also given a Cabinet Post), has earned him the animus of the Party's liberals, among them Senator Edward Kennedy and Representative Ron Dellums. Open pressure upon state legislatures to adopt the Equal Rights Amendment nor general Social Liberalism has moved a growing sentiment that Brown no longer represents some of the key tenants of the Democratic Party.

As the middle of October rolls around, Brown is in a rather weak state politically. Washington Senator Henry Jackson has declared that he would run against him and is but a few steps behind the President in the polls. Representative Ron Dellums, after strongly considering running as the nominee of the People's Party in the general election, has also decided to challenge Brown directly. A number of Republican candidates have also come to the fore, among them former Governor of Texas John Connally, Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker, George H. W. Bush, Governor Pierre du Pont, CEO Frank Borman, Senator Robert Dole, and others.

Among third parties, the American Party has managed to recruit Representative Larry McDonald of Georgia who is polling decently in the South and West. The Libertarian have put up an attorney from California known as Ed Clark as their candidate, with New York businessman David Koch as his Vice President. The People's Party have again turned to noted pediatrician and political activist Benjamin Spock as their nominee with Dellums deciding not to seek it, with LaDonna Harris as his running-mate.

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Main Three Candidates of the Major Parties
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Polling for the Democratic Presidential Primaries
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Polling for the Republican Presidential Primaries
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Polling for the General Election
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Now, what I need the most help as of now is polling data for the Republican candidates; Gallup has the best database through GallupBrain, but my university does not have access to it, and I'm not exactly willing to hand over hundreds of dollars for a private subscription. Therefore I ask that anyone interested find out if their University/College/Library has access to GallupBrain, and contact me directly through PM if they can. I know which polls I want to access and can provide links for said polls; I just need said person to be able to read the data in a specific section and relay that info back to me. Gallup and said person will get credit in a Readme that will come with the scenario folder, alongside other participants in this thread provided they did something more substantive than say hello, so to speak.

There is also the matter of candidates, their campaign infrastructure, that sort of thing. At the present I have the following candidates, outside of the three Third Parties:


Democratic​

• President Edmund "Jerry" Brown
• Senator Henry "Scoop" Jackson
• Representative Ronald "Ron" Dellums
• Senator Edward "Ted" Kennedy - (Off)
  
• Former Governor Cliff Finch
• Former Governor Hugh Carey - (Off)
• Senator William Proxmire - (Off)
• Senator George McGovern - (Off)

Republican

• Former Representative George Bush
• Former Governor John Connally
• Senate Minority Leader Howard Baker
• Former President Gerald Ford - (Off)
• CEO Frank Borman
• Senator Charles Percy
  
• Representative Phil Crane
• Governor Pierre du Pont
• Senator Lowell Weicker
• Former General Alexander Haig - (Off)
• Former Governor James Edwards - (Off)
• Governor Robert Day - (Off)

Campaign Infrastructure is listed as thus

• Command Strength - Overall campaign organization, on a national scale.
  
• Strategic Strength - Targeting a state for quicker deployment of campaign resources.
  
• Advertising Strength - Essentially the skill of your advertising staff.
  
• Spin Strength - In regards to pushing scandals out of the limelight, or highlighting stories.
  
• Fundraising Strength
• Research Strength - Either for scandals on opponents, or insight into local or national issues for advertising or campaigning.
  
• Polling Strength - Ability to conduct an independent poll of a state, and how accurate said poll might be (so skill of the campaign's pollsters).
• Ground Strength - How quickly you can organize volunteers into effective campaigners.

The above I can sort of determine according to the polling data if and when I get it, given normally a campaign that has polled well for some time normally will have the resources to support it on a certain level. This is then adjusted according to how the candidates ran their campaigns in OTL; so for example Bush would have a higher fundraising stat than Connally given they managed to pull in the same amount of money before the primaries began, even though Connally was polling around 10% while Bush was around 3%.

So there you have it. Anyone interested in helping?
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[Ariosto]

So no interest at all? :/
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[Gorrister]

Totes awesomes! , always love alternate PF scenarios! How can I help?

 

[history nerd]

Very cool, what version of President Forever are you making this in?

 

[Ariosto]

Totes awesomes! , always love alternate PF scenarios! How can I help?

I have to run to Accounting in about a minute, so forgive me if I'm for the time being brief.

I need someone who can get access to GallupBrain, either through a College they are attending or a local Library. I'm looking in my area for the latter, but so far no luck. Beyond that I just need suggestions on the more technical aspects such as the stats for the Candidates, how much money they should start with, their strengths, their weaknesses, etc. Essentially, another set of opinions to bounce off my own.
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Very cool, what version of President Forever are you making this in?

This if for 2016. I originally nearly released it for 2008, but there were technical aspects that I couldn't get around that kept preventing me from green-lighting it. I also had had a '84 scenario in the works for it as well at that time where it was a Gary Hart vs. Jack Kemp match-up, and I might aim for that again.
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[Tayya]

I'd say the Democrats should be a lot weaker in the South without Carter. It can be outweighed to an extent by better results in Western states such as Frank Church's Idaho (though I recommend that this is shown through leader bonuses).

 

[Ariosto]

I'd say the Democrats should be a lot weaker in the South without Carter. It can be outweighed to an extent by better results in Western states such as Frank Church's Idaho (though I recommend that this is shown through leader bonuses).

The Democratic percentages are based off of Mondale's performance in the 1984 election, adjusted to the point where Mondale and Reagan were tied nationally. Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin were adjusted beyond that given the home-state advantage for the Democrats from 76-84, and the Farm Crisis that hit those areas during Reagan's tenure.

The South is still very much a tossup region for two reasons:

1. The shift is not yet complete, and while it is nearing its final stages, it is not far along enough to so completely eliminate the Democratic Party's ability to compete in the Deep South. The more Moderate direction of the Republican Party is also helping matters (at least for the time being).
2. Larry McDonald's candidacy is drawing away a lot of Conservative Democrats that would otherwise vote for a Republican, much as was the case in the '68 election between Nixon and Wallace.
   

 

[PresidentZinn]

Where's Reagan? Did I miss something? Overall however, this looks very interesting.

 

[Ariosto]

Where's Reagan? Did I miss something? Overall however, this looks very interesting.

Might as well get this over with, though I wanted to leave it as an Easter Egg in the candidate bio's.

Reagan's dead.

Taken down by Pneumonia in the Winter of '78.
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[PresidentZinn]

Might as well get this over with, though I wanted to leave it as an Easter Egg in the candidate bio's.

Reagan's dead.

Taken down by Pneumonia in the Winter of '78.
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Okay. Sorry to ruin that one for you. Doesn't this mean the OTL's hard right republicans coalesce around some other Right-winger in order to fill the vacuum? Secondly just how plausibile is a Reagan death from pneumonia in 1978?

 

[Ariosto]

Okay. Sorry to ruin that one for you. Doesn't this mean the OTL's hard right republicans coalesce around some other Right-winger in order to fill the vacuum? Secondly just how plausibile is a Reagan death from pneumonia in 1978?

Reagan's death is based off an event in OTL, where he did get Pneumonia in the spring of '78 and there was a major fear that it had spread to his lungs. Thankfully that didn't happen and he managed to recover. Therefore I reasoned that it would be all that impossible to either have him catch it in the Fall and possibly reach his lungs.

Its better than the original reason, which revolved around a random car accident that had nothing to do with OTL.

As for the conservative Republicans, I have them divided among a number of candidates such as Philip Crane, John Connally, Pierre du Pont and maybe some others. Their present but their influence is diluted because of the division. It must of course also be mentioned that a number of them are also supporting the third-party bid of Larry McDonald.

I will also mention that I though about throwing Jesse Helms in as a Republican candidate, but ultimately decided against it for the time being; I have no way of knowing how he was polling at the time without access to GallupBrain, and therefore can't gauge his national presence. Same thing is preventing me from adding Chuck Percy, even though I am committed to making him an actual candidate.
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