October 1980 release of Iranian hostages--does Carter win re-election?

[Snowstalker]

Or does stagflation still do him in and lead to a narrower Reagan victory?

A bare-minimum Carter victory looks like this, by the way--Reagan won the PV by about 10% so I gave Carter every state closer than that. 297 electoral votes, coincidentally the exact same as his 1976 victory with Texas, Ohio, and Florida swapped for Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, Michigan, Illinois, and Oregon.

 

[Old Kentucky]

Much would depend on the what secured the hostages release. Anything that could be conceived as Carter being anything less than forceful with Iran would hurt him with the electorate.

 

[marathag]

Much would depend on the what secured the hostages release. Anything that could be conceived as Carter being anything less than forceful with Iran would hurt him with the electorate.

Yeah, it's proven that reports that pallets of Cash being flown to Iranians isn't a great look.

If they are released after military threat or even military action, that's a whole different look

 

[David T]

The bad economy plus suspicion that he made some sort of a sell-out deal to get the hostages freed would mean he would be defeated anyway though not by the margin of OTL. (People sometimes forget how unpopular Carter was before the hostage crisis. For a reminder, see https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...is-cabinet-july-17-1979.471408/#post-19211154)

 

[Jacob2003]

There is no way Carter can win in 1980 because the economy was not in good shape.

 

[dw93]

He loses but it's closer, which likely means the GOP doesn't flip the Senate in 1980. I wonder how different Reagan's Presidency would've been without a Republican Senate?

 

[David T]

He loses but it's closer, which likely means the GOP doesn't flip the Senate in 1980. I wonder how different Reagan's Presidency would've been without a Republican Senate?

"Throughout 1981, Reagan frequently met with members of Congress, focusing especially on winning support from conservative Southern Democrats.[9] In July 1981, the Senate voted 89-11 in favor of the tax cut bill favored by Reagan, and the House subsequently approved the bill in a 238-195 vote.[11]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Recovery_Tax_Act_of_1981 There were a lot of conservative Democrats, mostly from the South, in those days. True, there were also more progressive Republicans than today, but even progressive Republicans tended to go along with Reagan on the economy, saving their disagreements for social issues like abortion. So I don't think a narrowly Democratic Senate would make that much difference.

 

[marathag]

He loses but it's closer, which likely means the GOP doesn't flip the Senate in 1980

But wasn't really a RR Coattail effect, Rs would have likely won the Senate, unless RR's campaign would spectacularly implode, like with 'Live Boy or Dead Girl' type damage.
RR wasn't the reason for McGovern getting blown out in S.D.

It was votes wanting a huge change across the board, even if RR later put it best 'Are you better off now than 4 years ago'

In 1980, almost everything was far worse than 1976. This was just a house cleaning election-- incumbents had a rough time in 1980

 

[Ricardolindo]

I disagree with most people here. I think that if the hostages had been released, Carter would have won. It was considered a national humiliation and if Carter had released them, he would have been considered a national hero.

 

[marathag]

I disagree with most people here. I think that if the hostages had been released, Carter would have won. It was considered a national humiliation and if Carter had released them, he would have been considered a national hero.

All depends how the release came thru.

Was there a payoff?
Did Carter have to kowtow to the Ayatollah, and beg?
Was they military strikes?

Each has a different impact on the voters.
Carter looked weak for over 400 days, if he comes out strong, that's different, as people go of to vote.
I would have like for Peanut to have shown some Spine back then, and I wasn't alone in that feeling

 

[David T]

I disagree with most people here. I think that if the hostages had been released, Carter would have won. It was considered a national humiliation and if Carter had released them, he would have been considered a national hero.

If they were released in October his popularity would go up for maybe a couple of days. Then people would remember that after all they had been taken hostage while he was president (you're a "hero" for finally a resolving a mess you helped get the country into in the first place?--and the resolution was not even without the loss of American lives…), some would ask what the deal was that got their release, and in any event people would soon once again be thinking of other issues, like the economy. People would still be upset by double digit inflation combined with high unemployment. Farmers would still be upset by the grain embargo. Jews would still be upset by Andrew Young and the perception that the administration was anti-Israel. Religious conservatives who voted for him in 1976 would still be upset by abortion and other social issues. Ted Kennedy's supporters would still be upset that Carter had defeated Kennedy. And so on. Carter was very unpopular before the hostage crisis, which simply offered him a temporary respite. And the things that made him unpopular hadn't gone away--if anything they had gotten worse. (Also, Anderson would still be on the ballot, and while he took votes from both major candidates he seems to have taken more from Carter.)

If they were released just a day or two before the election, it would be too late, and anyway the timing would make people very suspicious.

Note that even Obama's job approval rating bump for the killing of bin Laden was short-lived---and that was revenge for an incomparably greater national humiliation than the hostage crisis and one for which Obama could not be blamed at all (and which could not have raised any suspicions of "what did al-Qaeda get in return" as the release of the Iran hostages could raise the question of what concessions the administration had made to Iran ). Just try this exercise in Googling: https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920&bih=874&ei=VZAOXorgB4LRtQamzIHABg&q=obama+"job+approval"+laden+"short+lived+bump"&oq=obama+"job+approval"+laden+"short+lived+bump"&gs_l=psy-ab.3...4211.13171..18266...0.0..0.170.612.0j4......0....1..gws-wiz.......33i10.9YYrskXw2WE&ved=0ahUKEwjK3tvOm-bmAhWCaM0KHSZmAGgQ4dUDCAo&uact=5#spf=1578012775737

 

[Ricardolindo]

If they were released in October his popularity would go up for maybe a couple of days. Then people would remember that after all they had been taken hostage while he was president (you're a "hero" for finally a resolving a mess you helped get the country into in the first place?--and the resolution was not even without the loss of American lives…), some would ask what the deal was that got their release, and in any event people would soon once again be thinking of other issues, like the economy. People would still be upset by double digit inflation combined with high unemployment. Farmers would still be upset by the grain embargo. Jews would still be upset by Andrew Young and the perception that the administration was anti-Israel. Religious conservatives who voted for him in 1976 would still be upset by abortion and other social issues. Ted Kennedy's supporters would still be upset that Carter had defeated Kennedy. And so on. Carter was very unpopular before the hostage crisis, which simply offered him a temporary respite. And the things that made him unpopular hadn't gone away--if anything they had gotten worse. (Also, Anderson would still be on the ballot, and while he took votes from both major candidates he seems to have taken more from Carter.)

If they were released just a day or two before the election, it would be too late, and anyway the timing would make people very suspicious.

Note that even Obama's job approval rating bump for the killing of bin Laden was short-lived---and that was revenge for an incomparably greater national humiliation than the hostage crisis and one for which Obama could not be blamed at all (and which could not have raised any suspicions of "what did al-Qaeda get in return" as the release of the Iran hostages could raise the question of what concessions the administration had made to Iran ). Just try this exercise in Googling: https://www.google.com/search?biw=1920&bih=874&ei=VZAOXorgB4LRtQamzIHABg&q=obama+"job+approval"+laden+"short+lived+bump"&oq=obama+"job+approval"+laden+"short+lived+bump"&gs_l=psy-ab.3...4211.13171..18266...0.0..0.170.612.0j4......0....1..gws-wiz.......33i10.9YYrskXw2WE&ved=0ahUKEwjK3tvOm-bmAhWCaM0KHSZmAGgQ4dUDCAo&uact=5#spf=1578012775737

I know that Carter was already very unpopular before the Iran hostage crisis. However, I thought that releasing the hostages could give him enough of a boost to win. Now, I think you are right.