While today part of Canada's Atlantic provinces, Newfoundland was an independent dominion from 1907 to 1949, though from 1932 it fell under the rule of a joint Newfoundland-British commission after defaulting on its debts, which lasted until unification with Canada in 1949 after a 1948 referendum narrowly chose confederation with Canada in favor of independent responsible government. Had this referendum gone the other way, how would Newfoundland have functioned as an independent country until the present day? Presumably it would have joined NATO and would remain part of the British Commonwealth system, but where I'm less certain and more curious to learn about is how this would affect the various Atlantic fishery disputes which OTL existed between Canada and various European countries as the Atlantic cod population declined; presumably Newfoundland, with its economy almost entirely reliant on the fisheries, would have taken an assertive position much like Iceland did against Britain in the Cod Wars.
Newfoundland remains an independent dominion/country
- Thread starter Snowstalker
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Certainly, by the early 1990s, the collapse of the Cod fishery is going to be an existential crisis for an independent Newfoundland that has managed to make it that long- an impressive feat given Newfoundland's history of bankruptcies, but not necessarily impossible.
Of course, Canada got aggressive by the late phase of that crisis, which greatly bolstered the political career of Brian Tobin but didn't make a significant difference to the actual fish stocks involved. Frankly, although an independent Newfoundland might have started acting earlier, I doubt it would have made a significant difference to their economic situation. Analyzing what an even more aggressive campaign against the European fishing trawlers would look like is probably going to end up being fairly boring: just like OTL, I'd expect the USA's position just south of the areas under contention would prevent Spain (and the rest of Europe) from sending any military vessels to try to enforce their claims, since the USA is unlikely to allow Newfoundland to extend its claims in international waters in any way that would restrict its own navigation, which covers most useful expansions. Overall, the Grand Banks are just too far out into international waters for Canada / Newfoundland to make a credible legal claim to.
Of course, Canada got aggressive by the late phase of that crisis, which greatly bolstered the political career of Brian Tobin but didn't make a significant difference to the actual fish stocks involved. Frankly, although an independent Newfoundland might have started acting earlier, I doubt it would have made a significant difference to their economic situation. Analyzing what an even more aggressive campaign against the European fishing trawlers would look like is probably going to end up being fairly boring: just like OTL, I'd expect the USA's position just south of the areas under contention would prevent Spain (and the rest of Europe) from sending any military vessels to try to enforce their claims, since the USA is unlikely to allow Newfoundland to extend its claims in international waters in any way that would restrict its own navigation, which covers most useful expansions. Overall, the Grand Banks are just too far out into international waters for Canada / Newfoundland to make a credible legal claim to.
So if Newfoundland does a Cod War and gains control of the fishing grounds how would they respond to the threat of population collapse? would they take the steps to manage their own fishing in their area which they now control?
Considering how Britain said it would refuse to grant any assistance to Newfoundland if it did not accede to Confederation with Canada, Newfoundland would probably be poor and corrupt, probably in a worse-off state than Iceland was (and that's before we get to the hosting US bases and all that, which would make it slightly more than insignificant), and at the mercy of Canada and the United States. So the pressure to give up independence would still grow, even if the referendum went the other way. At the same time, there probably would not be as much money floating around for many of the hair-brained schemes Smallwood concocted, so that might help in Newfoundland's favor. Now, once oil is discovered, everything changes, which then leaves open the question of how best to manage this resource without turning it into a curse.
Probably wouldn't affect much, though Newfoundland would probably be consistently on the losing end when it comes to Canada, France (viz. SPM), and the US (who would pretty much do the enforcing for it). In fact, SPM and Iceland (sans the Cod Wars) would probably give good indications of what Newfoundland would look like, though without the generous state aid France provides to offset it all for SPM.
Maybe, maybe not. It would only really take an assertive stance if it wants to combat over-fishing earlier (before the quota system and all that was put in place after Confederation, over-fishing and all that was not as major a problem, whereas the problems were more on the landward (processing) end). Even then, it would have to be in agreement with the US, Canada, and France (all of which want to protect their fishing industries and their access to the Grand Banks). From there could there be the possibility of a parallel agreement with the EEC (around the time when, IOTL, it was developing the Common Fisheries Policy in the 1970s and 1980s). Unlike Iceland, Newfoundland could ill-afford to take an assertive stance without getting curb-stomped by its neighbors, so it would have to be much more careful.
LMAO
No, not really on all three counts. While the military would certainly give a boost to Newfoundland's economy, I don't think the US would trust St. John's that much to include it in shared intelligence. Likewise, considering the stronger dependence on the US (alongside Canada), appeals of a CANZUK-like thing would not really be all that attractive in Newfoundland, whereas Pan-North Americanism (well, Pan-Americanism in general - I could definitely see Newfoundland in the OAS, for instance) would be far more popular.
So I guess Newfoundland would be less of a small colder northern version of New Zealand, and more like a colder northern whiter version of Jamaica or Barbados? Or perhaps of Puerto Rico, to name a different kind of Commonwealth.
It's interesting to imagine a sovereign white settler state that's on the poorer and less powerful side. Though I bet if we examine all sorts of dependencies, like say neighboring St. Pierre and Miquelon, they're probably pretty poor too. I wonder if free Newfoundland will undergo some sort of discovery of its Irish roots and try to grow closer cultural relations to Ireland, if for nothing but for mutual tourist ties and possibly attracting immigrants.
Possibly (Iceland is another possible example, to a lesser degree, though Newfoundland differs insofar as it's too close to more dominant countries along the North Atlantic, preventing it from being truly independent; Iceland was protected by the US/NATO but not included in Five Eyes and all that). Geography has long been a bane to Newfoundland's existence, since outside of very few areas the island is basically an extension of the Appalachian Mountains. That limits the potential for both agricultural development and industrialization, despite the best efforts of St. John's (often times against the Board of Trade's advice and, IOTL after Confederation, despite misgivings from Ottawa), which is why the fisheries were long an economic mainstay. (Well, alongside lumber, but trees are not as sexy as fish.) It's also part of the reason why the UK was pushing hard for Newfoundland to become part of Canada, because of a belief that Newfoundland was not economically viable on its own (and hence could not be able to maintain independence).
Definitely, in the latter case.
That would not necessarily work. The Irish were not the only people in Newfoundland; the vast majority trace their lineage back to southwestern England, while in some corners there's quite a few Francophone communities (many of which were decimated once the US started building military bases near those same exact communities), including some populated by Acadians who escaped the events of 1755. So doing that would be seen as reviving long-dormant sectarian tensions that everyone had been trying to suppress for so long. Besides, there's plenty enough for tourism purposes in Newfoundland itself without going that far (and even then, the Irish would prefer immigrating to the US, not a poor backwater like Newfoundland).
I was thinking the same thing. Ireland was the poor white nation of Europe until it became the Celtic Tiger. Sadly unless it it finds some way to profit business wise it won’t look good for the Newfies.
Makes me wonder if on some level Newfoundland would fall into sectarianism and even have small scale fights, especially if the economy is rotten. Might you see Irish Catholics fight Protestants? I know the Orange order was strong in Newfoundland like the rest of Canada. I’ve heard it said that it was the Protestant elite that engineered it joining Canada.
I would go so far as to argue that the deep ethnosectarian divides would be the key factor keeping Newfoundland from following the trajectory of Iceland. That Nordic island was more remote and less populous than Newfoundland, but its population was not divided into two bitterly hostile moieties. If Iceland had been so divided, I think it would have followed the Faroes in remaining Danish.
There are significant oil and gas reserves in what would be sovereign Newfie waters - e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibernia_oil_field - which came online in the 1990's - with a population of only 1/2 million that is a lot of revenue per capita
Could Newfoundland hang on long enough to benefit from joining the EEC in 1973 when Britain, Ireland and Denmark joined.
By the early 20th century, sectarianism was already pretty much on the downwards trajectory, with its only real result being the denominational compromise in the educational system and the occasional Orange March or two. So Newfoundland was already on the path of being much less sectarian than Canada. (And no, it wasn't the Protestant elites engineering it joining Canada, even if the referendum results make it seem like that.)
I was thinking of the Iceland thing because of the oil and a few other things.
No, I don't think so. By that point, Newfoundland's ties with Europe would be relatively distant outside of what it could get from SPM/France. North America would become Newfoundland's largest market(s) instead.
I'm thinking less of actual political or economic ties (not sure what pre-Celtic Tiger Ireland could even offer Newfoundland, other than immigrants), and more of cultural ties. The thing is, I'm not sure if a distinct Newfoundland national identity every truly formed, to the point that you could offer Newfie Studies at St. John's (okay, maybe you could), but basically something to differentiate the place from mainland Canada and the rest of the Commonwealth. It just sort of feels like an independent Newfoundland owing to its poorer past and northernly location might end up drifting towards the same amorphous bloc of vaguely left-leaning regions like Ireland, Scotland, and the Nordic nations, as those countries often do in popular imagination. A popular leftist fantasy response to Brexit is uniting Ireland and separating Scotland (and/or Wales, Cornwall, and Northumbria), and then building Scandinavian-style social democracies there. One wonders if an independent Newfoundland identity might eventually playing off of past divisions to do that to Canada:
All of this might not actually bear any political ramifications, but it could exist in the popular imagination and self-conception of national identity. Leading to people making maps of a Northern Social Democratic project spanning from Labrador to Karelia that only exists on this forum.
Aw, they're gonna get steamrolled by NAFTA, aren't they.
Well, the closest federal election in modern Canadian history was 1972, when the Liberals won 109 seats to the Progressive Conservatives' 107 and formed a minority government. But Newfoundland actually went 4-3 for the PCs in that election, so take them away and it would be 106-103 in the Liberals' favor instead.
One thing that might have been different is that the 38th parliament (following the 2004 election) might not have lasted as long. Maybe some of the Canadians here can help fill in the gaps in my knowledge, but I know that in the summer of 2005, the Liberal minority had a budget vote deadlock 152-152 (see here) with the Speaker casting the deciding vote in favor. The Newfoundland delegation consisted of 5 Liberals and 2 Conservatives at the time, so take them away and presumably they'd have lost the budget vote and had to call an earlier election.
Newfoundland is going to be much more poor than OTL. The oil resources won't be near as developed without all the money that Canada pumped into it during the National Energy Program and there isn't going to be near the amount of money floating around Newfoundland because of Newfoundlanders coming west for work but still putting Newfoundland on their taxes. And on top of that, just general equalization revenue and federal investment is going to be very limited.
I think Ireland is an apt comparison, but it's going to be pre-EU Ireland. Not the Ireland of today.
I think Ireland is an apt comparison, but it's going to be pre-EU Ireland. Not the Ireland of today.