November - December 1940
Indochinese Theatre
While the British and their Commonwealth allies were beginning to taste success in Libya, the climate started to warm greatly on the other side of the globe.
Ever since the rejected ultimatum of September 26th, the Japanese had been secretly making preparations for the staging of a “border incident” with Indochina, similar to what happened in 1937 at Marco Polo bridge. But the Japanese government was not stupid, either. They knew that there were still somewhat substantial forces in the colony, and that a distraction would be needed.
Luckily, the Japanese had concluded a Treaty with Thailand on June 12th, 1940, with strengthened the links between the two countries. Luckily for the Japanese as well, the new Thai leader, Phibun, was keen to increase his popularity, and beating a colonizer would be the perfect opportunity to do so.
While the Thai repeated that their forces would not be ready until the Spring of 1941, the Japanese insisted that this would only allow Free France to bolster its forces. The
Dixmude group [1] was steaming to Singapore, and there had been several liner round trips between the British colony and Saigon, likely bringing supplies to the French troops stationed there.
Phibun was not exactly pleased. The Thai dictator had taken power only a few months before, and his popularity was not very high. A war with France with a satisfying conclusion would certainly help things…but not at this cost.
No, Phibun was a nationalist, but he also knew where the winds were blowing. If he invaded French Indochina, there is a good chance that he would see Britain declaring war, and possibly the United States in turn. And for an invasion of Cambodia, he would need to take elite troops off of the Malayan border.
Therefore, negotiations stalled between the Japanese and Thais. The former wished to attack immediately and the latter repeated that they could not risk such an operation. And in the meantime, the Japanese Army stationed on the border with Indochina grew restless.
Finally, on November 12th, after days of the High Command repeating over and over that the invasion would be imminent, Lieutenant-General Aketo Nakamura, commander of the 5th Infantry Division, had had enough.
Taking his division, he crossed the border towards Lang Son, hoping to replicate the Mukden incident and finally encourage his superiors to take action. The border posts were quickly overpowered, but the alarm had been sent: the Japanese were invading!
Georges Catroux had anticipated such a scenario, and had been ready. For the past month, he had reinforced his position along the border at Lang Son, Cao Bang and Dong Pha with large forts and casemates (though some were mostly incomplete). And when the Japanese soldiers came knocking, they were warmly welcomed by the thunderous roar of the 155mm artillery pieces of the Lang Son fortress.
French Colonial troops and Foreign Legion blunted the Japanese advance, with, as the Thai government had feared, new weapons sent from Singapore. Well, new in the sense of the word…but they still did the job against the poorly-armed Japanese.
The Japanese armor, which sought to encircle and reduce the positions at Lang Son, were immediately received with anti-tank fire which stuck six vehicles and damaged many others. Likewise, overruns were ineffective and suddenly, Nakamura found himself stuck in a sticky situation. He could press on the attack, and risk big casualties, but he would need air support and it would take at least five days to break though. However, said air support was not coming, and the damn Navy was not taking action, either!
It is true that on their side, the French did not remain idle. Catroux immediately asked for help from France, Britain and the U.S. It did not take long for them to answer.
Mandel immediately dispatched the
Dixmude group from Singapore to Saigon in order to ferry weapons to French Indochina, with British escort [2]. In the meantime, troops along the Cambodian border were placed on full alert. They would not have to worry: the Thais would never try to cross the border.
With naval support coming, Catroux was confident: he could hold off the Japanese at the border for about a week before needing to retreat, and Haiphong would soon be under the cover of the French fighters [3]. In the meantime, he also placed troops around the coast on high alert in order to avoid a naval incursion.
The United States also immediately replied. Through their ambassador in Tokyo, Joseph Grew, the United States announced that the Japanese had twenty-four hours to vacate French Indochina, otherwise the U.S would take “necessary measures to prevent Japanese aggression”. The Japanese government called the American bluff.
Twenty-four hours later, shells continued to rain down on Lang Son, and Roosevelt had had enough. The United States thus placed an embargo on all scrap-metal shipments to Japan, closed the Panama Canal to Japanese shipping, froze Japanese assets in the U.S. and established an embargo on oil and gasoline exports to Japan.
To say that this decision had the effect of a lightning strike was an understatement. The Japanese were completely taken aback. Not only had Lang Son still not fallen, but the British were now sailing a fleet towards Saigon, threatening the Japanese fleet sailing off Tourane. The British government had for their part issued an ultimatum of their own against Japan: back down or risk war with the United Kingdom. Not only that, but now the Americans had effectively shut down their ability to wage war and were threatening to go to war.
All of this was embarrassing for Japan. Backing down now would mean defeat and shame. It would mean that French Indochina would remain out of their hands, and it would greatly affect their strategy for Southeast Asian dominance.
But the Japanese government had no choice.
Not willing to risk a war with Britain and the United States so soon, Japan had to back down. Nakamura was recalled from Lang Son, and the 5th Division ordered to cross the border back into China. Once there, Nakamura committed seppuku, bearing the responsibility for this shameful defeat.
Japan immediately offered condolences to the French government, laying the blame on Nakamura, an overzealous officer. Of course, Catroux was not fooled, but he knew that he could not have done much more. Five thousand French, colonial and Legion troops lay dead or wounded, and the French had still been taken by surprise.
Still, the
Dixmude group arrived at Cam Ranh, alongside the British. With it came much needed medical supplies, artillery pieces, rifles and even aircraft. Old models, of course, but ones that would surely be needed when the Japanese came back.
For the French were not fooled. Japan had been defeated but not vanquished. Indochina was too important and now that the U.S oil had stopped flowing, Japan would set its sights on the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies [4]. Not to mention that Japan was also extremely annoyed with the fact that the Kunming-Hanoi railway, the last safe Chinese link to the outside world, was still running smoothly. A fact that had not escaped Allied planners.
Over the course of the next year, Allied aid into China would continue to pour in via this road, keeping the Chinese war effort alive, and proving to be a massive annoyance for the Japanese, confirming the need to fully take over the colony. But to do that would mean sacrificing men that would have otherwise been needed for the invasions of Malaya, Burma, Borneo, the Philippines…a tall task: Japan would have to choose.
Not to mention that, to the west, Thailand had been completely deflated by this border incident. Phibun thought that the Japanese would just roll in and take over the colony, but such a stinging defeat left traces. Phibun’s policy was one of accommodation with the Japanese, but the defeat of Lang Son completely thrashed this objective.
At home, Phibun was more and more isolated. Domestic opinion had turned against him, and his government was slowly abandoning his cause. Not to mention the Japanese, who were furious that he had not followed through with the treaty and invaded Cambodia. And with the Allied successes in the Dodecanese and Libya, Phibun lost his already feeble grip on power.
On December 4th, 1940, Pridi Banomyong, of the civilian faction of the Thai government, convinced the National Assembly to oust Phibun. Because the Assembly feared a coup, Phibun resigned, but was still instated as Foreign Minister under Pridi Banomyong’s premiership [5].
This one decided to rescind much of Phibun’s earlier policies: he distanced himself from Japan, refusing to ratify the “treaty of friendship” offered in June that year. The personality cult that Phibun had started was nipped in the bud, and the exile of Prince Damrong and Phraya Songsuradej, who had been kicked out of the country for being a little too vocal about their opposition to Phibun, were ended [6]. The former took control of the Ministry of Health, while the latter would be reinstated in the Royal Thai Army.
This allowed Pridi to slowly diminish Phibun’s influence, isolating him from his allies and finally placing him in the great position of Ambassador to Japan…in November 1941. Pridi also took steps to stop the smear and censorship campaign against the Chinese community, slowly allowing them to reopen their schools and republish their newspapers.
All of this of course took some time for Pridi to do. By the end of the year, only the treaty with Japan had been revoked, as Phibun still retained a massive influence in the country. But his efforts would keep Thailand out of the Japanese conflict with the European powers, for a time, and start to build the path towards the new Republic of Thailand.
In the meantime, France and Britain had scored a small military victory, but one with massive political ramifications whose true results would not be seen until the fateful days of Winter 1941…
[1] CVL
Dixmude, CA
Suffren,
Dupleix, DD
Cassard, Milan, Le Fier, Le Triomphant, Ouragan
[2] Taken from Eastern Fleet: CA
Canberra (Au),
Cornwall, CL
Caledon, Dragon, Hobart (Au), DD
Diamond, Diana, Decoy, Daring, Tenedos, Thracian, SS
Grampus, Odin, Olympus, Proteus
[3] Most of these were MS.406s that Indochina had not transferred to China, after the September incident. The
Dixmude group would deliver MB.152s and several P-40s.
[4] The United States conditioned the return of the flow of oil to Japan with a partial evacuation from China and a retreat from the Indochinese border of at least fifty miles.
[5] Almost as OTL. The Thai government was very split on Phibun's policies, and only the "victory" in the Franco-Thai war allowed Phibun to consolidate his power enough. A Japanese setback in Indochina would kneecap Phibun's popularity and turn the government against him.
[6] OTL these two influential and very competent figures had much sadder fates.