Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)

195: A Normal Nation
9th September 2002:
After arriving at Tegel Airport and being welcomed by President of Germany Johannes Rau the previous mid-afternoon, President Try Sutrisno began to get down to business. At the Federal Chancellery, Try was welcomed by Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroder. They shook hands, got their pictures taken and got to work.

Try and Schroder sat across a conference table. The Indonesian side comprised of Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Minister of Forestry and Environment Barnabas Suebu (who joined the delegation for this leg of the trip), Minister of Tourism Soeyono, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat.

The German side comprised of Vice Chancellor/Minister of Foreign Affairs Joshcka Fischer, Minister of Defence Peter Struck, Minister of Economics and Technology Werner Muller, Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection Renate Kunast, Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development Heidemerie Wieczorek-Zaul, and Head of the Chancellery Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Dorodjatun and Wieczorek-Zaul signed an agreement to facilitate secondment of students and teachers of vocational schools in Indonesia to Germany. Such secondments will also include internships to give practical experience.

Suebu and Anthony together with Kunast and Wieczorek-Zaul signed an agreement committing Germany and Indonesia to combat illegal logging. Indonesia will continue its present policies of bringing forest concessionaires into compliance with existing regulations and establish a certification system for legally-produced timber and timber products. Germany will provide increased market opportunities for legal timber and lobby the EU to give similar access to legal timber.

Wismoyo and Struck signed the one that attracted the most attention. 41 Leopard 2 MBTs, 50 Marder IFVs, 1 Driver Training Tank, 1 Bergepanzer Armored Recovery Vehicle, and 3 M3 Amphibious Rigs.

After the two delegations had lunch together, Schroder had to leave to campaign, an election being due in a few weeks. Try taped an interview with Deutsche Welle Television where he was asked whether, with the announcement that AFTA is back on the agenda and the purchase of Leopard MBTs Indonesia is now the regional leader in Southeast Asia. Try said whether or not Indonesia was a regional leader is for others to say, not for him. For the present, he’s just here to visit the world’s third largest economy.

That night at the Indonesian Embassy in Berlin, Try hosted an event to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations between Indonesia and Germany. Indonesians living in Germany, most notably BJ Habibie attended as did German government officials and businessmen. The most prominent guest on the German side was Rau with Schroeder spending the night out of Berlin. Together with Try, Rau delivered the night’s keynote speeches.

10th September 2002:
The morning was a military affair as Try and the ABRI delegation that had joined him visited the Bundeswehr Headquarters. At a small ceremony, Try and Schroeder watched on as Inspector General of the Bundeswehr Wolfgang Schneiderhan symbolically handed over 5 Type 206 Submarines to Commander of ABRI Wiranto. Speaking to the Indonesian press corps, Navy Chief of Staff Djoko Sumaryono explained that the submarines will depart for Indonesia at the conclusion of the current visit and that the government had continued to allocate money to pay installments to Germany to purchase the submarines.

From the Bundeswehr Headquarters, it was back to the Chancellery for talks. Try brought Ginandjar and Edi while Schroeder was accompanied by Fischer.

Schroeder saw the international scene as being defined by two issues: War On Terror as well as the New Cold War though he preferred to call the latter the Multipolar Moment. In the former, Germany had contributed troops to Afghanistan and had hosted the International Conference on Afghanistan. Schroeder however said that he was more “interested” in the latter. Schroeder said that he was in favor of Germany becoming a “normal nation” meaning a nation that has interests and will pursue its interests.

Ginandjar asked what is Germany’s stance on Yugoslavia and President Slobodan Milosevic’s regime there. Fischer said that the popular sentiment in Germany seems to be that Germany should not support whatever the United States, the United Kingdom, and its allies have in store for Yugoslavia. Schroeder said he agrees with the popular sentiment and that UN or no UN resolution, Germany does not approve.

Ginandjar mischievously said whether Schroeder was secretly in the Russian camp by taking that stance. Schroeder laughed saying that he’s had his share of trouble with the Russians namely getting them to agree to pay the Soviet Union’s debts in the Paris Club. At the same time however, Schroeder said he disapproved of the United States trying to use financial leverage against Russia to gain an economic advantage as it tried to do in earlier in the year. Schroeder said he was able to get away with disapproval because Russia has a lot of debt to Germany and the United States needed Germany’s help.

It was at this point the conversation moved to Southeast Asia. Try would later admit that of all the visits thus far, it was Schroeder that was most interested in the situation in Southeast Asia and how ASEAN was doing. Schroeder asked about the prospects of Shwe Mann and his men returning and being installed as the legitimate regime in Myanmar.

“I believe that China will come down on the side of the current regime in Myanmar if that was to happen and I have no intention in engaging China in an actual military conflict with China, Mr. Chancellor” replied Try “It is very likely that Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann and his followers are looking at an extended stay in Indonesia which is why our focus right now is to integrate them into ABRI. As for Myanmar itself, I must consider it a lost cause for the moment.”

Schroeder said that if all 10 are not possible then Indonesia must hold the remaining 9 together. Fischer asked what would it take to have the remaining 9 ASEAN nations on board with Indonesia. Ginandjar said that the preparations to propose for the resumption of AFTA is designed to begin pushing Singapore and Brunei off the fence with Cambodia due for an election in 2003 and Malaysia in 2004.

“The resumption of AFTA, elections going your way and some Leopard Battle Tanks, Mr. President” joked Schroeder.

This was a segueway to defense with Schroeder saying that the Leopards are surplus to the Bundeswehr’s requirements, that Germany is looking to reduce the amount of Leopard MBTs it has in its possession and that he’s willing to offer another batch of Leopards to Indonesia. Try said that this was something for which “internal discussions” will be needed and said half-jokingly that what’s more important in the present moment is investment from Europe to help support Indonesia’s economic growth because without economic growth Indonesia could not purchase weapons.

Schroeder segued into economics. He said that the McCain Administration’s desire to defend the IMF and wanting that the IMF policy prescriptions is implemented to the letter is not wise because it risks alienating those which do not strictly follow neoliberal economic prescriptions but which are “not exactly Bolivia’s Morales” in their economic stance either. Try agreed with this.

From economics it was back to how Indonesia was doing again. Fischer asked Try how Indonesia was doing in terms of dealing with separatists. Try said that Aceh, Irian Jaya, and East Timor are governed as Special Regions with rules that only apply to them. For the first time, more share of the revenue are going their way and genuine economic development are now being undertaken in those three provinces.

“The general populace in those three provinces accept and acknowledge what the Government has done and this has cut off the “oxygen” for the FRETILIN, the GAM, and the OPM; they can’t launch a rebellion if they don’t have any semblance of popular support”, explained Try with a smile “As those in our national security-related agencies are fond of saying: the FRETILIN, the GAM, and the OPM are dormant.”

“You’re from a region that has a lot of volcanoes” countered Fischer “You must certainly know that dormant volcanoes can become active agai…”

“…But for the moment they are not a concern, aren’t they?” asked Schroeder.

“They’re not, Mr. President”, replied Try “In addition to our present economic strength, their dormancy is why we can have more focus on foreign policy.”

Schroeder and Fischer whispered something to each other and Try felt like a job applicant in front of two interviewers.

The meeting broke up not long after. On the car ride back to the hotel, Try, Ginandjar, and Edi talked about Schroeder taking a strong interest in Indonesia’s position.

“Remember that 3 years ago, the last time we came here, I told him I would help mobilize ASEAN to vote as a bloc for the German candidate for the IMF Managing Director so it’s not an entirely novel thing for him to be interested in our part of the world”, said Try “Of course that didn’t happen. Clinton nipped it in the bud by promising me expedited exit from the IMF’s program for Indonesia if the ASEAN vote is not mobilized.”

“The question is what does he need from us for this time?” asked Edi.

Ginandjar took off his glasses, racked his brains, and remembered something. It can’t possibly for that purpose…

After lunch, Try met with the Christian Democratic Union of Germany’s (CDU) Chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber and got the sense that Stoiber would be a pro-US German Chancellor if elected before visiting the Berlin Wall Memorial.

Dinner was with the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry. Try delivered the keynote address in which he proclaimed affinity with Germany. Germany is an economic power, the third largest in the world, which is now beginning to assert itself and make its voice heard on the world stage. Indonesia, though nowhere near the economic power Germany is, has undergone three and a half decades of economic development, and is now also seeking to assert itself and make its voice heard.

11th September 2002:
After farewell calls to Schroeder and then Rau, Try went to Tegel Airport and departed for his next destination. Of the ABRI delegation which Try met in Germany, Wiranto, officers from the ABRI Headquarters, and officers from the Air Force will join him for the next part of the trip. The rest had a separate itinerary to go to.

On the plane he assembled Ginandjar, Wismoyo, Dorodjatun, Wiranto, Edi to discuss the latest happenings from Southeast Asia.

Ginandjar reported good news. In the last few days, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam all expressed support for Indonesia making a proposal for the resumption of AFTA at the ASEAN Summit. Following their lead, Singapore and Brunei had issued a joint statement calling for Cambodia as the ASEAN Summit’s Chair to put this matter on the agenda.

“Ha! They got off the fence” Edi was heard to say.

“For the moment only on this issue”, replied Try cautiously “Let’s hope this causes a domino effect and they’ll get off the fence on other issues too.”

Ginandjar further reported that Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen has been stalling on deciding whether or not the ASEAN Summit will discuss the possible resumption of AFTA. As a consequence he has come under domestic pressure by President of the National Assembly Norodom Ranariddh who urged Hun Sen to do what was “right for Cambodia and for ASEAN”.

"Ranariddh will challenge Hun Sen for the prime ministership at the election next year, right?" asked Try.

"Yes, Mr. President", replied Ginandjar.

There was cynical laughter when Ginandjar spoke of Malaysia’s reaction; Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak saying that Indonesia was trying to intimidate the region into accepting its AFTA related proposals by purchasing Leopard MBTs and returning from Germany with 5 submarines.

“Let’s see where these developments leads to”, said Try “We’re doing the right thing by proposing to move things forward with AFTA, we can’t allow the division between the Jakarta Bloc, the Kuala Lumpur Bloc…is that what they’re calling it?... and the neutrals to solidify. If these divisions solidify, ASEAN will not work.”

The good mood was cut short when Australia’s reaction was discussed. While Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello said that Indonesia has asserted its right to strengthen its military, Australian Minister for Defense Peter Reith said that this means Australia will also need to build up its military capacity.

“I don’t get the part where we have a security agreement with these guys but they go out and make such statements instead of talking about things with us”, said Try “I thought that was the point of the treaty President Soeharto signed.”

“Let’s not get baited, Mr. President”, said Edi urging Try to calm down.

Try massaged his head. He distracted himself by talking to Wismoyo and Wiranto about how with the Army having now purchased Leopards and Marders and the Navy having gone home with 5 submarines, that they needed to think about what they can get for the Air Force. This seemed to calm him down and provided enough distraction until…

“Mr. President and other passengers, this is your captain speaking, just wanted to remind you now to fasten your seatbelts again” announced the pilot “We have now begun our descent into Moscow…”

---
OTL Schroeder was advocating a more assertive foreign policy for Germany (https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1999-09-12-9909120181-story.html) so I am imagining that ITTL, with the New Cold War/Multipolar moment, Schroeder’s sees more opportunities to advance Germany’s cause is even stronger.

Unlike Juppe, Schroeder will lean in Russia’s direction as opposed to taking a “non-aligned” stand. This is an echo of his OTL attitude towards Russia.

The Type 206 Submarines was another case of something having to be scrapped by the Asian Financial Crisis. https://www.indomiliter.com/ks-type-206-nyaris-jadi-arsenal-korps-hiu-kencana-tni-al/

For the last occasion that Try visited Germany, check out https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ry-sutrisno-1997.425151/page-12#post-18984207 Glad to say I've kept things consistent. Schroeder wanting a more assertive foreign policy got Try thinking in that chapter about his own foreign policy and things come full circle with Try saying in this visit that he identifies Indonesia wanting to be more assertive with Germany wanting to be more assertive.

Much as in OTL, Schroeder is running for re-election and riding an anti-American wave.

Imagine how much of an impact it would be in the region that Indonesia announced that it wants to put AFTA back on the agenda and then 48 hours later it was announced that it's buying MBTs and had 5 submarines handed over to it.
 
“Let’s see where these developments leads to”, said Try “We’re doing the right thing by proposing to move things forward with AFTA, we can’t allow the division between the Jakarta Bloc, the Kuala Lumpur Bloc…is that what they’re calling it?... and the neutrals to solidify. If these divisions solidify, ASEAN will not work.”
Out of topic here, but considering Malaysia is in a weaker position economically wise ITTL, I think that the Kuala Lumpur bloc name will remain as that, especially since the movement of ministries to Putrajaya (the potential alternate name) could be dramatically delayed when compared to IOTL .

Edit: At first I thought I exaggerated a bit when I say dramatically, but then I realized that with Mahathir (the one that proposed Putrajaya and a person who [only] likes to do big megaprojects) gone (Badawi is a bit well known for mothballing big projects like the Putrajaya Monorail for example), there is a potential that dramatically could be an understatement.
 
Last edited:
Wismoyo and Struck signed the one that attracted the most attention. 41 Leopard 2 MBTs, 50 Marder IFVs, 1 Driver Training Tank, 1 Bergepanzer Armored Recovery Vehicle, and 3 M3 Amphibious Rigs.
Wolfgang Schneiderhan symbolically handed over 5 Type 206 Submarines
Good additions to the Indonesian military but I wonder why no helicopters were purchased.
Ginandjar asked what is Germany’s stance on Yugoslavia and President Slobodan Milosevic’s regime there. Fischer said that the popular sentiment in Germany seems to be that Germany should not support whatever the United States, the United Kingdom, and its allies have in store for Yugoslavia. Schroeder said he agrees with the popular sentiment and that UN or no UN resolution, Germany does not approve.
And so the pressure on Yugoslavia starts to ramp up... The questions now are: Will Russian peacekeepers withdraw from Kosovo like in OTL in July 2003 and will Hungary allow NATO to attack through its border with Serbia?
“Mr. President and other passengers, this is your captain speaking, just wanted to remind you now to fasten your seatbelts again” announced the pilot “We have now begun our descent into Moscow…”
Well, now things get interesting; apart from economic deals and cooperation agreements the Russians can offer some very interesting toys like the Su-30s, the Ka-52s, and the S-300PMU-2
OTL Schroeder was advocating a more assertive foreign policy for Germany (https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1999-09-12-9909120181-story.html) so I am imagining that ITTL, with the New Cold War/Multipolar moment, Schroeder’s sees more opportunities to advance Germany’s cause is even stronger.

Unlike Juppe, Schroeder will lean in Russia’s direction as opposed to taking a “non-aligned” stand. This is an echo of his OTL attitude towards Russia.

For the last occasion that Try visited Germany, check out https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ry-sutrisno-1997.425151/page-12#post-18984207 Glad to say I've kept things consistent. Schroeder wanting a more assertive foreign policy got Try thinking in that chapter about his own foreign policy and things come full circle with Try saying in this visit that he identifies Indonesia wanting to be more assertive with Germany wanting to be more assertive.

Much as in OTL, Schroeder is running for re-election and riding an anti-American wave.
Will all these be enough to get Europe to push back stronger against NATO's proposal to expand into Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 and maybe even to accept the 3+1 formula for Ukraine in the 2010s in order to coexist peacefully with Russia? I guess only time will tell...
 
Last edited:
How Moscow react to the head of the largest islamic nation in the world? Because Russia has its share of muslims.

Given that Schroeder plays along with Russia, one can probably think on a favourable position for military purchases, maybe an increase on the Pacific trade. And for the Russia side, maybe a stronger Union State, given Germany backing.
 
9th September 2002:
After arriving at Tegel Airport and being welcomed by President of Germany Johannes Rau the previous mid-afternoon, President Try Sutrisno began to get down to business. At the Federal Chancellery, Try was welcomed by Chancellor of Germany Gerhard Schroder. They shook hands, got their pictures taken and got to work.

Try and Schroder sat across a conference table. The Indonesian side comprised of Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Minister of Defense and Security Wismoyo Arismunandar, Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, Minister of Trade Anthony Salim, Minister of Forestry and Environment Barnabas Suebu (who joined the delegation for this leg of the trip), Minister of Tourism Soeyono, Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu, and State Secretary Edi Sudrajat.

The German side comprised of Vice Chancellor/Minister of Foreign Affairs Joshcka Fischer, Minister of Defence Peter Struck, Minister of Economics and Technology Werner Muller, Minister of Food, Agriculture, and Consumer Protection Renate Kunast, Minister of Economic Cooperation and Development Heidemerie Wieczorek-Zaul, and Head of the Chancellery Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Dorodjatun and Wieczorek-Zaul signed an agreement to facilitate secondment of students and teachers of vocational schools in Indonesia to Germany. Such secondments will also include internships to give practical experience.

Suebu and Anthony together with Kunast and Wieczorek-Zaul signed an agreement committing Germany and Indonesia to combat illegal logging. Indonesia will continue its present policies of bringing forest concessionaires into compliance with existing regulations and establish a certification system for legally-produced timber and timber products. Germany will provide increased market opportunities for legal timber and lobby the EU to give similar access to legal timber.

Wismoyo and Struck signed the one that attracted the most attention. 41 Leopard 2 MBTs, 50 Marder IFVs, 1 Driver Training Tank, 1 Bergepanzer Armored Recovery Vehicle, and 3 M3 Amphibious Rigs.

After the two delegations had lunch together, Schroder had to leave to campaign, an election being due in a few weeks. Try taped an interview with Deutsche Welle Television where he was asked whether, with the announcement that AFTA is back on the agenda and the purchase of Leopard MBTs Indonesia is now the regional leader in Southeast Asia. Try said whether or not Indonesia was a regional leader is for others to say, not for him. For the present, he’s just here to visit the world’s third largest economy.

That night at the Indonesian Embassy in Berlin, Try hosted an event to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations between Indonesia and Germany. Indonesians living in Germany, most notably BJ Habibie attended as did German government officials and businessmen. The most prominent guest on the German side was Rau with Schroeder spending the night out of Berlin. Together with Try, Rau delivered the night’s keynote speeches.

10th September 2002:
The morning was a military affair as Try and the ABRI delegation that had joined him visited the Bundeswehr Headquarters. At a small ceremony, Try and Schroeder watched on as Inspector General of the Bundeswehr Wolfgang Schneiderhan symbolically handed over 5 Type 206 Submarines to Commander of ABRI Wiranto. Speaking to the Indonesian press corps, Navy Chief of Staff Djoko Sumaryono explained that the submarines will depart for Indonesia at the conclusion of the current visit and that the government had continued to allocate money to pay installments to Germany to purchase the submarines.

From the Bundeswehr Headquarters, it was back to the Chancellery for talks. Try brought Ginandjar and Edi while Schroeder was accompanied by Fischer.

Schroeder saw the international scene as being defined by two issues: War On Terror as well as the New Cold War though he preferred to call the latter the Multipolar Moment. In the former, Germany had contributed troops to Afghanistan and had hosted the International Conference on Afghanistan. Schroeder however said that he was more “interested” in the latter. Schroeder said that he was in favor of Germany becoming a “normal nation” meaning a nation that has interests and will pursue its interests.

Ginandjar asked what is Germany’s stance on Yugoslavia and President Slobodan Milosevic’s regime there. Fischer said that the popular sentiment in Germany seems to be that Germany should not support whatever the United States, the United Kingdom, and its allies have in store for Yugoslavia. Schroeder said he agrees with the popular sentiment and that UN or no UN resolution, Germany does not approve.

Ginandjar mischievously said whether Schroeder was secretly in the Russian camp by taking that stance. Schroeder laughed saying that he’s had his share of trouble with the Russians namely getting them to agree to pay the Soviet Union’s debts in the Paris Club. At the same time however, Schroeder said he disapproved of the United States trying to use financial leverage against Russia to gain an economic advantage as it tried to do in earlier in the year. Schroeder said he was able to get away with disapproval because Russia has a lot of debt to Germany and the United States needed Germany’s help.

It was at this point the conversation moved to Southeast Asia. Try would later admit that of all the visits thus far, it was Schroeder that was most interested in the situation in Southeast Asia and how ASEAN was doing. Schroeder asked about the prospects of Shwe Mann and his men returning and being installed as the legitimate regime in Myanmar.

“I believe that China will come down on the side of the current regime in Myanmar if that was to happen and I have no intention in engaging China in an actual military conflict with China, Mr. Chancellor” replied Try “It is very likely that Lt. Gen. Shwe Mann and his followers are looking at an extended stay in Indonesia which is why our focus right now is to integrate them into ABRI. As for Myanmar itself, I must consider it a lost cause for the moment.”

Schroeder said that if all 10 are not possible then Indonesia must hold the remaining 9 together. Fischer asked what would it take to have the remaining 9 ASEAN nations on board with Indonesia. Ginandjar said that the preparations to propose for the resumption of AFTA is designed to begin pushing Singapore and Brunei off the fence with Cambodia due for an election in 2003 and Malaysia in 2004.

“The resumption of AFTA, elections going your way and some Leopard Battle Tanks, Mr. President” joked Schroeder.

This was a segueway to defense with Schroeder saying that the Leopards are surplus to the Bundeswehr’s requirements, that Germany is looking to reduce the amount of Leopard MBTs it has in its possession and that he’s willing to offer another batch of Leopards to Indonesia. Try said that this was something for which “internal discussions” will be needed and said half-jokingly that what’s more important in the present moment is investment from Europe to help support Indonesia’s economic growth because without economic growth Indonesia could not purchase weapons.

Schroeder segued into economics. He said that the McCain Administration’s desire to defend the IMF and wanting that the IMF policy prescriptions is implemented to the letter is not wise because it risks alienating those which do not strictly follow neoliberal economic prescriptions but which are “not exactly Bolivia’s Morales” in their economic stance either. Try agreed with this.

From economics it was back to how Indonesia was doing again. Fischer asked Try how Indonesia was doing in terms of dealing with separatists. Try said that Aceh, Irian Jaya, and East Timor are governed as Special Regions with rules that only apply to them. For the first time, more share of the revenue are going their way and genuine economic development are now being undertaken in those three provinces.

“The general populace in those three provinces accept and acknowledge what the Government has done and this has cut off the “oxygen” for the FRETILIN, the GAM, and the OPM; they can’t launch a rebellion if they don’t have any semblance of popular support”, explained Try with a smile “As those in our national security-related agencies are fond of saying: the FRETILIN, the GAM, and the OPM are dormant.”

“You’re from a region that has a lot of volcanoes” countered Fischer “You must certainly know that dormant volcanoes can become active agai…”

“…But for the moment they are not a concern, aren’t they?” asked Schroeder.

“They’re not, Mr. President”, replied Try “In addition to our present economic strength, their dormancy is why we can have more focus on foreign policy.”

Schroeder and Fischer whispered something to each other and Try felt like a job applicant in front of two interviewers.

The meeting broke up not long after. On the car ride back to the hotel, Try, Ginandjar, and Edi talked about Schroeder taking a strong interest in Indonesia’s position.

“Remember that 3 years ago, the last time we came here, I told him I would help mobilize ASEAN to vote as a bloc for the German candidate for the IMF Managing Director so it’s not an entirely novel thing for him to be interested in our part of the world”, said Try “Of course that didn’t happen. Clinton nipped it in the bud by promising me expedited exit from the IMF’s program for Indonesia if the ASEAN vote is not mobilized.”

“The question is what does he need from us for this time?” asked Edi.

Ginandjar took off his glasses, racked his brains, and remembered something. It can’t possibly for that purpose…

After lunch, Try met with the Christian Democratic Union of Germany’s (CDU) Chancellor candidate Edmund Stoiber and got the sense that Stoiber would be a pro-US German Chancellor if elected before visiting the Berlin Wall Memorial.

Dinner was with the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry. Try delivered the keynote address in which he proclaimed affinity with Germany. Germany is an economic power, the third largest in the world, which is now beginning to assert itself and make its voice heard on the world stage. Indonesia, though nowhere near the economic power Germany is, has undergone three and a half decades of economic development, and is now also seeking to assert itself and make its voice heard.

11th September 2002:
After farewell calls to Schroeder and then Rau, Try went to Tegel Airport and departed for his next destination. Of the ABRI delegation which Try met in Germany, Wiranto, officers from the ABRI Headquarters, and officers from the Air Force will join him for the next part of the trip. The rest had a separate itinerary to go to.

On the plane he assembled Ginandjar, Wismoyo, Dorodjatun, Wiranto, Edi to discuss the latest happenings from Southeast Asia.

Ginandjar reported good news. In the last few days, Thailand, the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam all expressed support for Indonesia making a proposal for the resumption of AFTA at the ASEAN Summit. Following their lead, Singapore and Brunei had issued a joint statement calling for Cambodia as the ASEAN Summit’s Chair to put this matter on the agenda.

“Ha! They got off the fence” Edi was heard to say.

“For the moment only on this issue”, replied Try cautiously “Let’s hope this causes a domino effect and they’ll get off the fence on other issues too.”

Ginandjar further reported that Prime Minister of Cambodia Hun Sen has been stalling on deciding whether or not the ASEAN Summit will discuss the possible resumption of AFTA. As a consequence he has come under domestic pressure by President of the National Assembly Norodom Ranariddh who urged Hun Sen to do what was “right for Cambodia and for ASEAN”.

"Ranariddh will challenge Hun Sen for the prime ministership at the election next year, right?" asked Try.

"Yes, Mr. President", replied Ginandjar.

There was cynical laughter when Ginandjar spoke of Malaysia’s reaction; Prime Minister of Malaysia Najib Razak saying that Indonesia was trying to intimidate the region into accepting its AFTA related proposals by purchasing Leopard MBTs and returning from Germany with 5 submarines.

“Let’s see where these developments leads to”, said Try “We’re doing the right thing by proposing to move things forward with AFTA, we can’t allow the division between the Jakarta Bloc, the Kuala Lumpur Bloc…is that what they’re calling it?... and the neutrals to solidify. If these divisions solidify, ASEAN will not work.”

The good mood was cut short when Australia’s reaction was discussed. While Prime Minister of Australia Peter Costello said that Indonesia has asserted its right to strengthen its military, Australian Minister for Defense Peter Reith said that this means Australia will also need to build up its military capacity.

“I don’t get the part where we have a security agreement with these guys but they go out and make such statements instead of talking about things with us”, said Try “I thought that was the point of the treaty President Soeharto signed.”

“Let’s not get baited, Mr. President”, said Edi urging Try to calm down.

Try massaged his head. He distracted himself by talking to Wismoyo and Wiranto about how with the Army having now purchased Leopards and Marders and the Navy having gone home with 5 submarines, that they needed to think about what they can get for the Air Force. This seemed to calm him down and provided enough distraction until…

“Mr. President and other passengers, this is your captain speaking, just wanted to remind you now to fasten your seatbelts again” announced the pilot “We have now begun our descent into Moscow…”

---
OTL Schroeder was advocating a more assertive foreign policy for Germany (https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1999-09-12-9909120181-story.html) so I am imagining that ITTL, with the New Cold War/Multipolar moment, Schroeder’s sees more opportunities to advance Germany’s cause is even stronger.

Unlike Juppe, Schroeder will lean in Russia’s direction as opposed to taking a “non-aligned” stand. This is an echo of his OTL attitude towards Russia.

The Type 206 Submarines was another case of something having to be scrapped by the Asian Financial Crisis. https://www.indomiliter.com/ks-type-206-nyaris-jadi-arsenal-korps-hiu-kencana-tni-al/

For the last occasion that Try visited Germany, check out https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ry-sutrisno-1997.425151/page-12#post-18984207 Glad to say I've kept things consistent. Schroeder wanting a more assertive foreign policy got Try thinking in that chapter about his own foreign policy and things come full circle with Try saying in this visit that he identifies Indonesia wanting to be more assertive with Germany wanting to be more assertive.

Much as in OTL, Schroeder is running for re-election and riding an anti-American wave.

Imagine how much of an impact it would be in the region that Indonesia announced that it wants to put AFTA back on the agenda and then 48 hours later it was announced that it's buying MBTs and had 5 submarines handed over to it.

Try be like after announcing AFTA back on agenda, goes on jumping military moral compass by buying East (russian) and West (German, French) systems. Like our IRL MINDEF Try be like “Kita Borong Semuanya” and this time in AU Indonesia don’t need to ask “Duitnya dari mana” they just need to ask “Mau beli berapa banyak” because of the better economic situation. After that also maintaining a cordial relationship between East and West even though the world is entering a Multipolar/New Cold War world. I guess trully a bebas aktif moment there. In the future they should start planning on buying new systems while the current second hand stuff bought to gather experience or complement some new systems.
 
Last edited:
Out of topic here, but considering Malaysia is in a weaker position economically wise ITTL, I think that the Kuala Lumpur bloc name will remain as that, especially since the movement of ministries to Putrajaya (the potential alternate name) could be dramatically delayed when compared to IOTL .

Edit: At first I thought I exaggerated a bit when I say dramatically, but then I realized that with Mahathir (the one that proposed Putrajaya and a person who [only] likes to do big megaprojects) gone (Badawi is a bit well known for mothballing big projects like the Putrajaya Monorail for example), there is a potential that dramatically could be an understatement.
This is a good point. I daresay ITTL Malaysia has some infrastructure projects delayed though it gets a lot of tourists coming its way from the PRC.

If one goes back to around September 2000, Indonesia actually wanted Malaysia to join it in countering China as well but things did not work out because Badawi got replaced by Razak.

And so the pressure on Yugoslavia starts to ramp up... The questions now are: Will Russian peacekeepers withdraw from Kosovo like in OTL in July 2003 and will Hungary allow NATO to attack through its border with Serbia?
Still plenty of twists and turns.

Re: Hungary, Orban successfully retains office as prime minister at the 2002 Elections (instead of in OTL where his party gets the most seats but the opposition coalition manages to gather enough votes to gain power) and will be cooperative if not with NATO then at least with McCain and Blair. Of course early 21st century Orban is different from the current Orban (https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/16/orbans-cheerleading-for-putin-follow-the-money/).

Will all these be enough to get Europe to push back stronger against NATO's proposal to expand into Ukraine and Georgia in 2008 and maybe even to accept the 3+1 formula for Ukraine in the 2010s in order to coexist peacefully with Russia? I guess only time will tell...
The 1999 batch is safe. But the batches after that looks uncertain. Any decision on enlargement needs to be by unanimous vote and you've got Germany in there with its own agenda.

How Moscow react to the head of the largest islamic nation in the world? Because Russia has its share of muslims.
Tune in to the next chapter.
 
This is a good point. I daresay ITTL Malaysia has some infrastructure projects delayed though it gets a lot of tourists coming its way from the PRC.
To be honest, part of me start to laugh maniacally when I read this part since it occur to me that the KL Monorail ITTL WILL definitely have the fate Jakarta Monorail had IOTL or worse. In which case, good riddance to that expensive to ride, fire prone, useless eyesore [REDACTED].

You can refer to this website to know overall what infrastructure does Malaysia build IOTL.

Edit : There is still part of me that were a bit perplexed by the fact Najib becoming the PM (or even becoming an MP for that matter) , especially now that I realized a project that affected by the Financial Crisis is the first phase of the East Coast Expressway, which is the biggest project that were delayed when the financial crisis hit. That being said, UMNO really had to start scraping the barrel in regard for its leadership by this point ITTL.

P/s: Reading back on Malaysian expressways Wikipedia article and it references had really sucking me into a rabbit hole, especially in regards to the concession agreements with the private companies. (Bloody hell, I did not know that the tolls were supposed to be that expensive by now, AKLEH)
 
Last edited:
Re: Hungary, Orban successfully retains office as prime minister at the 2002 Elections (instead of in OTL where his party gets the most seats but the opposition coalition manages to gather enough votes to gain power) and will be cooperative if not with NATO then at least with McCain and Blair. Of course early 21st century Orban is different from the current Orban (https://balkaninsight.com/2022/02/16/orbans-cheerleading-for-putin-follow-the-money/).
In OTL it was Orban that said NO to NATO( to the Bill Clinton administration) in 1999. I don't see him changing his position this radically in order to allow an invasion from Hungary (in a way Hungary's position could be equivalent to the position of OTL Turkey when the USA invaded Iraq in 2003). However, I have no doubt that if the Hungarian population in Vojvodina starts getting "harassed", then Orban will change his position on the matter. (https://babel.ua/en/news/85367-the-...manded-that-hungary-invade-yugoslavia-in-1999)
 
Edit : There is still part of me that were a bit perplexed by the fact Najib becoming the PM (or even becoming an MP for that matter) , especially now that I realized a project that affected by the Financial Crisis is the first phase of the East Coast Expressway, which is the biggest project that were delayed when the financial crisis hit. That being said, UMNO really had to start scraping the barrel in regard for its leadership by this point ITTL.
Yeah, I know I got to Najib in quick succession🤣.

Malaysia in this TL has the honor of being the first place that the butterflies spilled into when it went over the border to other countries. Basically Mahathir doesn’t see Soeharto fall from power and so he doesn’t have the “what happened to Soeharto will happen to me” paranoia he had in OTL.


Try be like after announcing AFTA back on agenda, goes on jumping military moral compass by buying East (russian) and West (German, French) systems. Like our IRL MINDEF Try be like “Kita Borong Semuanya” and this time in AU Indonesia don’t need to ask “Duitnya dari mana” they just need to ask “Mau beli berapa banyak” because of the better economic situation. After that also maintaining a cordial relationship between East and West even though the world is entering a Multipolar/New Cold War world. I guess trully a bebas aktif moment there. In the future they should start planning on buying new systems while the current second hand stuff bought to gather experience or complement some new systems.
Better economic situation, 10-year moratorium on the payment of debt as a result of taking a strong stand in the aftermath of 9/11, and better currency exchange (a good 3-4 times stronger than OTL).

I think if the response to “mau beli berapa banyak” is an excessive amount, the VP might have something to say about that😁.
 
Last edited:
Yeah, I know I got to Najib in quick succession🤣.

Malaysia in this TL has the honor of being the first place that the butterflies spilled into when it went over the border to other countries. Basically Mahathir doesn’t see Soeharto fall from power and so he doesn’t have the “what happened to Soeharto will happen to me” paranoia he had in OTL.



Better economic situation, 10-year moratorium on the payment of debt as a result of taking a strong stand in the aftermath of 9/11, and better currency exchange (a good 3-4 times stronger than OTL).

I think if the response to “mau beli berapa banyak” is an excessive amount, the VP might have something to say about that😁.
Ngl VP should have something to say to push a transparency. Hopefully this would at least make the people gaining their trust towards ABRI as they are now changing to a Professional force and transparent to anything like auditory or procurement so people knew what their tax money being used on. But I wonder what effects would the European trip give to ASEAN since the Euro trip truly give both Economic and Military support for Indonesia. Which also effects the SEA region as a whole probably.
 
MBT possession only have deterrent on land but no deterrent on geopolitics. Hell only bomber, destroyer, ballistic and heavy fightercan be count as true deterrent. Now we can see ABRI will get mix Western and Russian weapon system on their arsenal. Usually Army Western minded and Marine Russian minded. Marine definetely going to obtain 500-800 BMP-3, 48 Pantsyr-S1 and SAM 24 S-300. Army 1000 MBT Leopard II, 72 Pantsyr-S1 and 48 NASAMS. I think Marine won't obtain MBT unless their doctrine get replaced.

PS= Australia have several hundred MBT ABRAMS

Posture power for ABRI or TNI

AD=
500-800 MBT Leopard II
1000 IFV Marder 1A3 or equivalent
2000 APC Anoa or VAB
500 Military Engineer Vehicle
48 Pantsyr-S1
24 NASAMS / Tunguska / BUK-M
10000 Truck support

AU=
Medium Fighter
200 F-16 Block 60 / Grippen E/F aka 10 skuadron

Heavy Fighter=
100 Dassault Rafale / F-15 / Su-35

AEWCS=
12 E-3 / E-7 and 6 A-50

Bomber
40 Tu-22M3

SAM
48 S-300

Light Fighter and Trainer
80 F/A-50 Golden Eagle

AL

Destroyer
12 DZP / Kongo/ KDX-III / FREMM FREDA Variant

Frigate
36 KDX-II / La-Fayette / Formidable

Corvette
60 Sigma-10514 / Gowind / Steresguschy

IFV
1000 BMP-3F

Military Engineering Vehicle
500

48 Pantsyr-S1

SAM
48 Tunguska / Buk-M

Submarine
24 U-214 / U-218 / Scorpene
 
Last edited:
MBT possession only have deterrent on land but no deterrent on geopolitics. Hell only bomber, destroyer, ballistic and heavy fightercan be count as true deterrent. Now we can see ABRI will get mix Western and Russian weapon system on their arsenal. Usually Army Western minded and Marine Russian minded. Marine definetely going to obtain 500-800 BMP-3, 48 Pantsyr-S1 and SAM 24 S-300. Army 1000 MBT Leopard II, 72 Pantsyr-S1 and 48 NASAMS. I think Marine won't obtain MBT unless their doctrine get replaced.
I don't really know what issue do you have against Vice President Sumarlin that you want to give him an heart attack. I am sure that even with the Indian Defence Budget you can't get so much.
AD=
500-800 MBT Leopard II
1000 IFV Marder 1A3 or equivalent
2000 APC Anoa or VAB
500 Military Engineer Vehicle
48 Pantsyr-S1
24 NASAMS / Tunguska / BUK-M
10000 Truck support
Lets halve the list. Half of everything that you want plus less than half of the air defense systems. 24 NASAMS will bankrupt the country.
U=
Medium Fighter
200 F-16 Block 60 / Grippen E/F aka 10 skuadron

Heavy Fighter=
100 Dassault Rafale / F-15 / Su-35

AEWCS=
12 E-3 / E-7 and 6 A-50

Bomber
40 Tu-22M3

SAM
48 S-300

Light Fighter and Trainer
80 F/A-50 Golden Eagle
Let's keep 200 fighter of the same type, any of the one that you want, and get local production too say like 20 in flyaway configuration, 40 in Semi Knock Down kits, 40 in Fully Knock down kits and the rest wholly made in Indonesia. The total cost including weapons and integration will take the amount to $10billion+

For AEWACS 12 seems a fair number for a Indonesia sized country but 18 is probably stretching it but ok E-7s will do just fine so would the A-50s but a E-7 will be much cheaper to maintain. Instead of additional 6 AEWACS get some tankers like the A330 MRTT.

Bomber is wholly unnecessary and getting the high maintenance Tu-22s a very bad decision. If you must then 2 squadrons of Su-34s will be enough for anything Indonesia faces. Some P-8s, maybe about 10 for the navy would be great for maritime patrol along with smaller aircraft for the role, plus they carry armament so you can call them bombers.

S-300s and 48 of them is unaffordable to say the least 16 to 24 is realistic.

For Light fighters cum trainers 40 is good enough or maybe a locally developed one can be made.
AL

Destroyer
12 DZP / Kongo/ KDX-III / FREMM FREDA Variant

Frigate
36 KDX-II / La-Fayette / Formidable

Corvette
60 Sigma-10514 / Gowind / Steresguschy

IFV
1000 BMP-3F

Military Engineering Vehicle
500

48 Pantsyr-S1

SAM
48 Tunguska / Buk-M

Submarine
24 U-214 / U-218 / Scorpene
Again lets halve the numbers to start with.
For destroyers, the Indian Kolkata class would be a good fit too.
For Frigates, Admiral Grigorovich class and Incheon class are good enough with many units being built in Indonesia itself.
For Corvettes build your own thing fully domestically after a few foreign units.
And one must not forget patrol vessels, mine and antisubmarine warfare craft, midget submarines can cause havoc from Indonesian internal waters.
And most importantly do not forget amphibious warfare craft both small and large like the Singaporean Endurance Class and LHDs like Mistral or Juan Carlos, Or for the matter troopships. Other Countries may not need them so much but being an archipelagic nation Indonesia Absolutely needs them. What's the use of a formidable Army if you can't move it around at will or without requisitioning civilian vessels.
 
I don't really know what issue do you have against Vice President Sumarlin that you want to give him an heart attack. I am sure that even with the Indian Defence Budget you can't get so much.
It's just need 2% GDP aka 200 billion usd truly possible with good planning on procurement.

1 GDP = 10000 Billion usd

Based on economic forecast of MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey, and Australia)
Indonesia GDP will reach 2-3 Trilion USD on 2030 become number 5th-6th world largest economy. Even 2045 it will become 4th after RRC, US, and India. Again it's matter of weapon procurement planning and political will

Lets halve the list. Half of everything that you want plus less than half of the air defense systems. 24 NASAMS will bankrupt the country.
It won't
Just look at Singapore 3% GDP aka 300 Billion USD
Japan 8% GDP aka 8 Billion USD
Let's keep 200 fighter of the same type, any of the one that you want, and get local production too say like 20 in flyaway configuration, 40 in Semi Knock Down kits, 40 in Fully Knock down kits and the rest wholly made in Indonesia. The total cost including weapons and integration will take the amount to $10billion+
Indonesia need mix weapon system from western and eastern block
For AEWACS 12 seems a fair number for a Indonesia sized country but 18 is probably stretching it but ok E-7s will do just fine so would the A-50s but a E-7 will be much cheaper to maintain. Instead of additional 6 AEWACS get some tankers like the A330 MRTT.
Yeah i forget about tanker it's best use US and Russia tanker aircraft
A-50S important for Russian Heavy Fighter integration
Bomber is wholly unnecessary and getting the high maintenance Tu-22s a very bad decision. If you must then 2 squadrons of Su-34s will be enough for anything Indonesia faces.
Sorry i forgot to mention Tu-22M3 for temporary bomber. The bomber just Su-32

Some P-8s, maybe about 10 for the navy would be great for maritime patrol along with smaller aircraft for the role, plus they carry armament so you can call them bombers.
I forgot P-8 for maritime patrol for navy
S-300s and 48 of them is unaffordable to say the least 16 to 24 is realistic.
Again 2%GDP
For Light fighters cum trainers 40 is good enough or maybe a locally developed one can be made.
Hmmm LIFT neef st least 4 ska it means 80 unit
Again for cheap patrol
Again lets halve the numbers to start with.
For destroyers, the Indian Kolkata class would be a good fit too.
For Frigates, Admiral Grigorovich class and Incheon class are good enough with many units being built in Indonesia itself.
For Corvettes build your own thing fully domestically after a few foreign units.
Kolkata, Shivalik, Gregorovich, and Gorshkov will male Australia and Malaysia more vocal. They're right bastard to Indonesia
Kolkata and Shivalik even have sensitive technology from Israel
It will make political disaster for Try regime
And one must not forget patrol vessels, mine and antisubmarine warfare craft, midget submarines can cause havoc from Indonesian internal waters.
Agree for Patrol but it's for Coastguard
Midget Submarine truly won't feasible here
Unless there are new doctrine but highest urgent still present Modern Submarine gor underwater threat
And most importantly do not forget amphibious warfare craft both small and large like the Singaporean Endurance Class and LHDs like Mistral or Juan Carlos, Or for the matter troopships. Other Countries may not need them so much but being an archipelagic nation Indonesia Absolutely needs them. What's the use of a formidable Army if you can't move it around at will or without requisitioning civilian vessels.
LST and LPD ( Makassar Class) we can already built it
LHD Mistrall or Dokdo class because Indonesia have a lot of potential weapon procurement with them
 
Last edited:
Guy's chilling nowadays so i can't help but think that he would follow your story if somehow he encounters this.
Hahahaha the only reaction of OTL Try to this TL that I can clearly imagine is that he’d be uncomfortable seeing his ITTL self being rivals with Tutut.

What I’m more curious about is how ITTL Try and OTL Try would react if they met each other.
 
Top