Indonesia ATL: The Presidency of Try Sutrisno (1997-)
- Thread starter GSD310
- Start date
Could be comrade, could be brother, a foreign friend of mine translates it as "dude" or "bro".
156: The 2002 Cabinet Reshuffle
2nd February 2002:
It was just after lunch when Vice President JB Sumarlin was summoned to the Presidential Palace. When Sumarlin arrived, he was escorted by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat to the President’s office. There he found President Try Sutrisno sitting behind a desk with a piece of paper on the table. After some small talk, the President slid over the piece of paper to Sumarlin. There were names on it.
“I wanted to run it by you, Mr. Vice President”, he said.
Sumarlin knew that the level of involvement that he had in terms of policymaking and being part of the decisionmaking was something that Soeharto had never extended to his vice presidents. The final decision of course belonged to the President but he got to give a lot of input.
“This is more than just the Junior Minister of Finance’s position that you are filling here, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin “You’re moving people around, appointing new people…”
The President smiled and in that instance, Sumarlin felt there was something about him that resembled Soeharto.
There was certainly something Soeharto-esque about the way the President had maneuvered. Sumarlin had acted as a witness to the PKPI and the PPP’s Coalition Agreement and had been shown the agreement prior. His immediate reaction was that the President had made things more difficult for the PKPB. It would not be enough for the PKPB to merely get the most amount votes in the election in May, it would have to get a lot more than the PKPI and the PPP combined.
And then the most recent ABRI Command Shuffle, even someone not well-versed in military politics would know that it was a big deal when the Army Chief of Staff, Deputy Army Chief of Staff, Commander of Kostrad, and the Commander of Kopassus all change hands at the same time and all ending up in the hands of those the President was favoring.
Now this…
“The public will ask why are you doing this now with only 13.5 months left in the term, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin.
“Political dynamics and wanting to finish strong”, explained the President “I’ve told them that if they want to take on these positions I have in my mind for them, they would have to show something tangible within a 100 days of being sworn in.”
Showing something tangible within 100 days…so that there are some successes to be touted during the election campaign, thought Sumarlin.
Sumarlin pushed the piece of paper back to the President.
“It seems to me you’ve made up your mind about these appointments and I’ll gladly support it”, said Sumarlin before pausing thoughtfully and adding “But it seems to me, Mr. President, that you are intending that these final 13.5 months of the term won’t be your final 13.5 months in this office.”
The President was silent.
“That is precisely my intention”, he said.
Sumarlin nodded his head as he comprehended what the President had said to him.
“But if I may, Mr. Vice President, I want to know if you are thinking the same way” continued the President “Are you intending for the next 13.5 months to be your last as vice president?”
“That’s something I have not thought in great detail purely because we all must make sure that you get re-elected first, Mr. President”, Sumarlin said.
The President laughed at that.
“I suppose there’s plenty of time to think about that”, he said “Though I would very much like to retain you.”
---
It was State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno that lid the spark. He was seen packing up and leaving his office saying that he had not resigned or that the President had removed him but that they came to a common agreement that he would leave the cabinet. Giri Suseno said that he was glad to have realized the MRT in Jakarta and to have encouraged other cities to begin putting more effort into urban development.
---
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita was resting at at his official residence when State Minister of the Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Development Zones Jusuf Kalla arrived at his house. Kalla said that he had come from the Presidential Palace where the President told him he had been removed.
---
There was a lot of activity at the PPP Headquarters. Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz had bright smiles on their faces though they would not say why.
Down the road at the PKPI Headquarters, Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman was tight-lipped saying that there was nothing out of the ordinary about his appearance at the PKPI Headquarters especially with 3.5 months to go to the Elections.
---
The reshuffle is as follows:
Minister of Transmigration:
In: Ir. Indra Bambang Utoyo
As State Minister of Research and Technology, Indra Bambang Utoyo had studiously followed the President’s instruction to prioritize research in the field of agriculture and defense while also being the driving force behind the inter-departmental effort to past the Plant Varieties, Trade Secrets, and Industrial Design Laws. On the political front, Indra also advocated a coalition with the PPP, was part of the PKPI’s Negotiation Team to achieve the coalition agreement and had been a consistent supporter of Try. His appointment as Minister of Transmigration is seen as a reward for his efforts in recent times as well as putting another “Sane Soehartoist” in charge of a department.
Out: Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Rusmadi Sidik
Rusmadi was appointed a year ago partly on account of his being a member of the National Military Academy Class of 1961 which included such stalwarts as former Commander of ABRI Feisal Tanjung and current Secretary of the PKPB ZA Maulani. It was hoped that Rusmadi’s appointment would sway the members of that class to Try’s cause but this proved only mere empty hope because most of that cohort had, together with Feisal and ZA Maulani, continued to throw their support behind Tutut. His removal serves as a signal that the President was no longer “looking for friends” among the National Military Academy Class of 1961 or any classes for that matter who had chosen to throw their support behind Tutut.
State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises:
In: Ir.Cacuk Sudarijanto
Ten years on from his removal as CEO of Telkom as a result of refusing to purchase equipment from a business partner of the Soeharto family, Cacuk makes his return to the state enterprises sector by being put in charge of the state-owned enterprises. In the year which he spent as Junior Minister of Cooperatives, Cacuk had secured approval for a policy mandating cooperatives to undergo external audits to increase transparency.
Out: Bacelius Ruru SH, LLm.
Though he had driven improvements in state-owned enterprises such as Pertamina and the PT KAI, Bacelius now find himself removed from a position he had occupied for more than 3 years. His removal is seen as a balancing act. The new Chairman of the BPK and the new Junior Minister of Finance being protégés of Vice President JB Sumarlin, it was only natural that the Vice President would lose influence elsewhere.
State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones:
In: H. Rusnain Yahya
If the rumors were true, the condition for a PKPI-PPP coalition which the PPP was most keen to secure was the prospect of more PPP ministers and that the President was willing to give one extra cabinet seat as a “down payment”. What is fact is that Rusnain Yahya, PPP member and presently Chairman of the PPP’s Central Kalimantan Branch will be making the trip to Jakarta to become a minister. Rusnain is an ally of Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and supported the latter’s bids for the chairmanship of the PPP in 1994 and 1999. His appointment was made with the upcoming elections in mind as he is a prominent NU figure in Central Kalimantan and is expected to mobilize support for the PPP and the PKPI.
Out: Drs. Jusuf Kalla
Kalla has been appointed the new Ambassador to Japan. It seems to be a general consensus in Jakarta that Kalla’s removal is a warning shot at Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita for failing to control his ally Aburizal Bakrie; Bakrie having nearly derailed the coalition negotiations between the PKPI and the PPP at the last minute. This move however, shows how strategically placed, useful, and indispensible Ginandjar is to Try that the best Try could do is fire a “warning shot”.
State Minister of Urban Development:
In: Ir. HM Ridwan Hisjam
A first-term DPR member and considered to be a prominent member of the PKPI’s East Java Branch, Ridwan Hisjam now finds himself with a seat around the cabinet. He has business experience in oil and gas as well as media but it is his organizational experience that Try is interested in. Ridwan has held prominent positions in the HIPMI (Chairman of the East Java Branch 1992-1995) and the Real Estate Indonesia (Chairman of the East Java Branch 1996-1999, National Treasurer 2001-now) as well as holding memberships in the KADIN, HMI, and KAHMI. Try will be counting on Ridwan to mobilize these networks, as well as performing in his new assignment, as the election gets closer.
Out: Ir. Giri Suseno Hadihardjono
Giri Suseno’s exit marks the end of Habibie’s ascendancy in Indonesian politics as he would no longer be represented around the cabinet table. Habibie’s empire has now been divided between the Department of Industry and the State Ministry of Research and Technology. Habibie himself, no longer holding any office, has chosen to live in Germany.
State Minister of Research and Technology:
In: Ir. Al Hilal Hamdi
Al Hilal Hamdi was an ITB Student in 1977 when he took part in the Student Council and became part of the demonstrations in 1978 against Soeharto’s re-election at the MPR General Session that year. Al Hilal has interest in energy as well as environmental issues reflecting his background as an energy engineer. Though he is close to Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais, Al Hilal is not a member of Muhammadiyah. Already there is speculation that Try is dividing and conquering Amien and Muhammadiyah by appointing someone which benefits Amien but not Muhammadiyah. Our sources in the palace said that Al Hilal’s appointment’s has the symbolic purpose of serving as the “borderline” of Try’s Coalition, beyond whom people shouldn’t be considered part of the Try Coalition. Already people are half-jokingly saying that if Indonesia is from Sabang to Merauke, Try’s Coalition is from “Wismoyo (Minister of Defense and Security as well as Soeharto’s brother-in-law) to Al Hilal”.
Out: Ir. Indra Bambang Utoyo
Junior Minister of Finance:
In: Dr. Ir. Bambang Subianto
The vacancy that triggered this reshuffle is the Junior Ministry of Finance left behind by Marzuki Usman as he took up his new appointment as Chairman of the BPK. Now the position has fallen to Bambang Subianto. Though his graduate degree was in chemical engineering, Bambang joined the economics faculty at the University of Indonesia and never looked back. After earning his Masters and Doctorate, he joined the Department of Finance when JB Sumarlin was Minister of Finance and rose to become Director General of Financial Institutions (1992-1998). Since 1998, he has been the Head of the BPPN where he has overseen the repayments of the BLBI assistance.
Out: Drs. Marzuki Usman MA
Junior Minister of Cooperatives:
In: Ir. Tadjuddin Noer Said
A 3-term member of DPR (1982-1997), Tadjuddin Noer Said had developed a reputation as a vocal member and had not been nominated for re-election in 1997. Since then he had returned to his native South Sulawesi to become a lecturer at Hasanuddin University where he had completed his education. Now Tadjuddin finds himself summoned to Jakarta to take up the position left behind by Cacuk Sudarijanto. Because of his South Sulawesinese origin, he is seen as a “replacement” to the departing Jusuf Kalla.
Out: Ir. Cacuk Sudarijanto
Analysis:
This reshuffle, together with the completion of the PKPI-PPP Coalition Agreement and the ABRI Command Shuffle, has to be seen as part of a “Trylogy” of political maneuvers designed to put the President in the best possible position ahead of the 2002 Elections and the 2003 MPR General Session.
If the theme of the 1999 Cabinet Reshuffle is to build a coalition against Tutut and the theme of the 2001 Cabinet Reshuffle is to broaden support, then the theme of the 2002 Cabinet Reshuffle must certainly be making individuals and groups be invested in the idea of Try being re-elected.
A member of the diplomatic corps has made the observation that the President has given “half a promotion” for the beneficiaries in the reshuffle with the “full promotion” to be given once Try has been successfully re-elected. An example of this is the new Junior Minister of Finance, Bambang Subianto, who now should be considered odds on favorite as Minister of Finance were Try to be re-elected.
In other words, argued this member of the diplomatic corps, Try is making the beneficiaries of this reshuffle, and the organizations they belong to, become invested in the idea of his re-election.
For the beneficiaries of this reshuffle, for the PKPI and the PPP, for the beneficiaries of the most recent ABRI Command Shuffle, the message is clear "If I'm re-elected, there's more rewards waiting for you."
---
I must say that this reshuffle was always on the cards though I never knew quite when to put it.
The theme here is Try becoming more focused on re-election and getting more comfortable using his power for that purpose.
It was just after lunch when Vice President JB Sumarlin was summoned to the Presidential Palace. When Sumarlin arrived, he was escorted by State Secretary Edi Sudrajat to the President’s office. There he found President Try Sutrisno sitting behind a desk with a piece of paper on the table. After some small talk, the President slid over the piece of paper to Sumarlin. There were names on it.
“I wanted to run it by you, Mr. Vice President”, he said.
Sumarlin knew that the level of involvement that he had in terms of policymaking and being part of the decisionmaking was something that Soeharto had never extended to his vice presidents. The final decision of course belonged to the President but he got to give a lot of input.
“This is more than just the Junior Minister of Finance’s position that you are filling here, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin “You’re moving people around, appointing new people…”
The President smiled and in that instance, Sumarlin felt there was something about him that resembled Soeharto.
There was certainly something Soeharto-esque about the way the President had maneuvered. Sumarlin had acted as a witness to the PKPI and the PPP’s Coalition Agreement and had been shown the agreement prior. His immediate reaction was that the President had made things more difficult for the PKPB. It would not be enough for the PKPB to merely get the most amount votes in the election in May, it would have to get a lot more than the PKPI and the PPP combined.
And then the most recent ABRI Command Shuffle, even someone not well-versed in military politics would know that it was a big deal when the Army Chief of Staff, Deputy Army Chief of Staff, Commander of Kostrad, and the Commander of Kopassus all change hands at the same time and all ending up in the hands of those the President was favoring.
Now this…
“The public will ask why are you doing this now with only 13.5 months left in the term, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin.
“Political dynamics and wanting to finish strong”, explained the President “I’ve told them that if they want to take on these positions I have in my mind for them, they would have to show something tangible within a 100 days of being sworn in.”
Showing something tangible within 100 days…so that there are some successes to be touted during the election campaign, thought Sumarlin.
Sumarlin pushed the piece of paper back to the President.
“It seems to me you’ve made up your mind about these appointments and I’ll gladly support it”, said Sumarlin before pausing thoughtfully and adding “But it seems to me, Mr. President, that you are intending that these final 13.5 months of the term won’t be your final 13.5 months in this office.”
The President was silent.
“That is precisely my intention”, he said.
Sumarlin nodded his head as he comprehended what the President had said to him.
“But if I may, Mr. Vice President, I want to know if you are thinking the same way” continued the President “Are you intending for the next 13.5 months to be your last as vice president?”
“That’s something I have not thought in great detail purely because we all must make sure that you get re-elected first, Mr. President”, Sumarlin said.
The President laughed at that.
“I suppose there’s plenty of time to think about that”, he said “Though I would very much like to retain you.”
---
It was State Minister of Urban Development Giri Suseno that lid the spark. He was seen packing up and leaving his office saying that he had not resigned or that the President had removed him but that they came to a common agreement that he would leave the cabinet. Giri Suseno said that he was glad to have realized the MRT in Jakarta and to have encouraged other cities to begin putting more effort into urban development.
---
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita was resting at at his official residence when State Minister of the Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Development Zones Jusuf Kalla arrived at his house. Kalla said that he had come from the Presidential Palace where the President told him he had been removed.
---
There was a lot of activity at the PPP Headquarters. Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and Chairman of the PPP National Campaign Hamzah Haz had bright smiles on their faces though they would not say why.
Down the road at the PKPI Headquarters, Chairman of the PKPI Basofi Sudirman was tight-lipped saying that there was nothing out of the ordinary about his appearance at the PKPI Headquarters especially with 3.5 months to go to the Elections.
---
Report
To The Director of the Security and Intelligence Division In Singapore
Kept busy by a trip to the regions and then the Conference on Cooperation, President Try Sutrisno has this afternoon capped off the Coalition Agreement between the PKPI and the PPP as well as the ABRI Command Shuffle which saw his former Aide-de-Camp TB Hasanuddin promoted to Army Chief of Staff by announcing a reshuffle this afternoon. Though there was one position in the cabinet which needed to be filled, namely the Junior Minister of Finance’s position, Try has ambushed the nation and the two women aspiring to fill his position with a reshuffle clearly designed to improve his prospects at both the 2002 Elections and the 2003 MPR General Session. There was no inkling that anything was on the agenda until the Presidential PalaceTo The Director of the Security and Intelligence Division In Singapore
The reshuffle is as follows:
Minister of Transmigration:
In: Ir. Indra Bambang Utoyo
As State Minister of Research and Technology, Indra Bambang Utoyo had studiously followed the President’s instruction to prioritize research in the field of agriculture and defense while also being the driving force behind the inter-departmental effort to past the Plant Varieties, Trade Secrets, and Industrial Design Laws. On the political front, Indra also advocated a coalition with the PPP, was part of the PKPI’s Negotiation Team to achieve the coalition agreement and had been a consistent supporter of Try. His appointment as Minister of Transmigration is seen as a reward for his efforts in recent times as well as putting another “Sane Soehartoist” in charge of a department.
Out: Maj. Gen. (Ret.) Rusmadi Sidik
Rusmadi was appointed a year ago partly on account of his being a member of the National Military Academy Class of 1961 which included such stalwarts as former Commander of ABRI Feisal Tanjung and current Secretary of the PKPB ZA Maulani. It was hoped that Rusmadi’s appointment would sway the members of that class to Try’s cause but this proved only mere empty hope because most of that cohort had, together with Feisal and ZA Maulani, continued to throw their support behind Tutut. His removal serves as a signal that the President was no longer “looking for friends” among the National Military Academy Class of 1961 or any classes for that matter who had chosen to throw their support behind Tutut.
State Minister of State-Owned Enterprises:
In: Ir.Cacuk Sudarijanto
Ten years on from his removal as CEO of Telkom as a result of refusing to purchase equipment from a business partner of the Soeharto family, Cacuk makes his return to the state enterprises sector by being put in charge of the state-owned enterprises. In the year which he spent as Junior Minister of Cooperatives, Cacuk had secured approval for a policy mandating cooperatives to undergo external audits to increase transparency.
Out: Bacelius Ruru SH, LLm.
Though he had driven improvements in state-owned enterprises such as Pertamina and the PT KAI, Bacelius now find himself removed from a position he had occupied for more than 3 years. His removal is seen as a balancing act. The new Chairman of the BPK and the new Junior Minister of Finance being protégés of Vice President JB Sumarlin, it was only natural that the Vice President would lose influence elsewhere.
State Minister of Development of Eastern Indonesia and Special Economic Zones:
In: H. Rusnain Yahya
If the rumors were true, the condition for a PKPI-PPP coalition which the PPP was most keen to secure was the prospect of more PPP ministers and that the President was willing to give one extra cabinet seat as a “down payment”. What is fact is that Rusnain Yahya, PPP member and presently Chairman of the PPP’s Central Kalimantan Branch will be making the trip to Jakarta to become a minister. Rusnain is an ally of Chairman of the PPP Matori Abdul Djalil and supported the latter’s bids for the chairmanship of the PPP in 1994 and 1999. His appointment was made with the upcoming elections in mind as he is a prominent NU figure in Central Kalimantan and is expected to mobilize support for the PPP and the PKPI.
Out: Drs. Jusuf Kalla
Kalla has been appointed the new Ambassador to Japan. It seems to be a general consensus in Jakarta that Kalla’s removal is a warning shot at Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita for failing to control his ally Aburizal Bakrie; Bakrie having nearly derailed the coalition negotiations between the PKPI and the PPP at the last minute. This move however, shows how strategically placed, useful, and indispensible Ginandjar is to Try that the best Try could do is fire a “warning shot”.
State Minister of Urban Development:
In: Ir. HM Ridwan Hisjam
A first-term DPR member and considered to be a prominent member of the PKPI’s East Java Branch, Ridwan Hisjam now finds himself with a seat around the cabinet. He has business experience in oil and gas as well as media but it is his organizational experience that Try is interested in. Ridwan has held prominent positions in the HIPMI (Chairman of the East Java Branch 1992-1995) and the Real Estate Indonesia (Chairman of the East Java Branch 1996-1999, National Treasurer 2001-now) as well as holding memberships in the KADIN, HMI, and KAHMI. Try will be counting on Ridwan to mobilize these networks, as well as performing in his new assignment, as the election gets closer.
Out: Ir. Giri Suseno Hadihardjono
Giri Suseno’s exit marks the end of Habibie’s ascendancy in Indonesian politics as he would no longer be represented around the cabinet table. Habibie’s empire has now been divided between the Department of Industry and the State Ministry of Research and Technology. Habibie himself, no longer holding any office, has chosen to live in Germany.
State Minister of Research and Technology:
In: Ir. Al Hilal Hamdi
Al Hilal Hamdi was an ITB Student in 1977 when he took part in the Student Council and became part of the demonstrations in 1978 against Soeharto’s re-election at the MPR General Session that year. Al Hilal has interest in energy as well as environmental issues reflecting his background as an energy engineer. Though he is close to Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais, Al Hilal is not a member of Muhammadiyah. Already there is speculation that Try is dividing and conquering Amien and Muhammadiyah by appointing someone which benefits Amien but not Muhammadiyah. Our sources in the palace said that Al Hilal’s appointment’s has the symbolic purpose of serving as the “borderline” of Try’s Coalition, beyond whom people shouldn’t be considered part of the Try Coalition. Already people are half-jokingly saying that if Indonesia is from Sabang to Merauke, Try’s Coalition is from “Wismoyo (Minister of Defense and Security as well as Soeharto’s brother-in-law) to Al Hilal”.
Out: Ir. Indra Bambang Utoyo
Junior Minister of Finance:
In: Dr. Ir. Bambang Subianto
The vacancy that triggered this reshuffle is the Junior Ministry of Finance left behind by Marzuki Usman as he took up his new appointment as Chairman of the BPK. Now the position has fallen to Bambang Subianto. Though his graduate degree was in chemical engineering, Bambang joined the economics faculty at the University of Indonesia and never looked back. After earning his Masters and Doctorate, he joined the Department of Finance when JB Sumarlin was Minister of Finance and rose to become Director General of Financial Institutions (1992-1998). Since 1998, he has been the Head of the BPPN where he has overseen the repayments of the BLBI assistance.
Out: Drs. Marzuki Usman MA
Junior Minister of Cooperatives:
In: Ir. Tadjuddin Noer Said
A 3-term member of DPR (1982-1997), Tadjuddin Noer Said had developed a reputation as a vocal member and had not been nominated for re-election in 1997. Since then he had returned to his native South Sulawesi to become a lecturer at Hasanuddin University where he had completed his education. Now Tadjuddin finds himself summoned to Jakarta to take up the position left behind by Cacuk Sudarijanto. Because of his South Sulawesinese origin, he is seen as a “replacement” to the departing Jusuf Kalla.
Out: Ir. Cacuk Sudarijanto
Analysis:
This reshuffle, together with the completion of the PKPI-PPP Coalition Agreement and the ABRI Command Shuffle, has to be seen as part of a “Trylogy” of political maneuvers designed to put the President in the best possible position ahead of the 2002 Elections and the 2003 MPR General Session.
If the theme of the 1999 Cabinet Reshuffle is to build a coalition against Tutut and the theme of the 2001 Cabinet Reshuffle is to broaden support, then the theme of the 2002 Cabinet Reshuffle must certainly be making individuals and groups be invested in the idea of Try being re-elected.
A member of the diplomatic corps has made the observation that the President has given “half a promotion” for the beneficiaries in the reshuffle with the “full promotion” to be given once Try has been successfully re-elected. An example of this is the new Junior Minister of Finance, Bambang Subianto, who now should be considered odds on favorite as Minister of Finance were Try to be re-elected.
In other words, argued this member of the diplomatic corps, Try is making the beneficiaries of this reshuffle, and the organizations they belong to, become invested in the idea of his re-election.
For the beneficiaries of this reshuffle, for the PKPI and the PPP, for the beneficiaries of the most recent ABRI Command Shuffle, the message is clear "If I'm re-elected, there's more rewards waiting for you."
---
I must say that this reshuffle was always on the cards though I never knew quite when to put it.
The theme here is Try becoming more focused on re-election and getting more comfortable using his power for that purpose.
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If it's not a big problem can I ask you to provide a character sheet. I am not well versed in Indonesian politics but I am quite interested in knowing more about them. Google India is not at all helpful plus as we go ahead in the TL it becomes hard to ascertain if the person I am looking up is the correct one or not and mostly I find their images. I looked up JB Sumarlin and it said Former Finance Minister of Mali( ofcourse inside the link the correct information is provided). As you use names very often, a threadmark where we can quickly look up who you are referring to with brief details and posts held.
Is it possible to make the MPR a more active body by making it meet once or twice each year and making certain categories of laws that have major implications on the country only passable by the MPR and the ordinary laws by the DPR.
Throughout the TL I forgot or there wasn't mention of the local bodies much? Don't they have seperate election?
What is the public opinion of ABRI's presence in the parliament and PNI's opinion? Is it here to stay?
I guess to increase transparency is intended. I hope you don't mind nitpicking.
Is it possible to make the MPR a more active body by making it meet once or twice each year and making certain categories of laws that have major implications on the country only passable by the MPR and the ordinary laws by the DPR.
Throughout the TL I forgot or there wasn't mention of the local bodies much? Don't they have seperate election?
What is the public opinion of ABRI's presence in the parliament and PNI's opinion? Is it here to stay?
Sure, let's see what I can do in terms of a character sheet.
On the MPR:
OTL, they tried precisely what you did with the MPR. Between 1999 and 2004, the MPR met annually do a performance review of the president and give recommendations as to what to do next. This was abolished in 2004 because it became redundant because Indonesia had by then switched to a direct election system. The MPR still exists to this day but its only (visible) responsibility seems to be inaugurating the president and vice president.
ITTL, Try and Co. are continuing the practice of Soeharto regarding the MPR namely that the MPR only meets once every 5 years. The logic of why this was sufficient was because as per the constitution, the MPR partly consists of DPR members. So if someone was in the DPR, they are already in the MPR. So it was argued that when the MPR was not in session, it can be said to be represented by the DPR. In practice the MPR and the DPR became synonymous with each other and are popularly known as the DPR/MPR.
Local Bodies:
Yes they are known as the DPRD (Regional People's Representative Council). There are DPRDs at the provincial level and there are DPRDs at the regency/municipal level. Their elections are held at the same time as the election for the DPR.
Public Opinion on ABRI being Parliament:
I would say that there is acceptance to it among ITTL's general population. The consequence of ITTL Indonesia never reaching the point that it did in OTL May 1998 is that much of the drive for political change, including on ABRI no longer having seats in the DPR, is lost. That said, among those who are politically aware the PNI are the one that are most against it. The liberal wing of the PKPI is ambivalent towards it while the conservative wing of the PKPI, PPP, and PKPB are for continued ABRI seats in the DPR.
Because without the Rupiah reaching $1= Rp. 17,000, a much worst economic crisis, and the May 1998 riots butterflied away, much of the desire for change has also been butterflied.
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Well if Tri see RRC as a threat, he will need to update white paper defence program. ABRI or TNI need to be modernize with fixing military doctrine, weaponry system, and C4ISR. Indonesia need to diversification of weapon from western and eastern block. Author can based on MEF.
Maybe the author could do something to improve the MEF to make the ATL country procure a more better equipment then IRL since this ATL Indonesia seems has a more better economy that could support the process. For starters buy the navy new ships taking the example of the IRL kornas program when the navy planned to get up to 22 corvette and then from there moving to acquire more bigger high end ships such as Frigates or even Destroyers. And for the Army maybe the author could do something like in IRL buy surplus German Army equipment like the Leopards or even the marder IFVs (or buy a whole new IFV if the budget is enough). And lastly try buy something more for the Air Force like more newer F-16s (no second hand ones) or any other type of fighter. Further more I think an AWACS aircraft is also strongly needed to acquire a better C4ISR capability.
There is a lot of opportunities that could be taken here for the TL to improve the military from procuring a better equipment then IRL Indonesia or maybe even fixing some of the military organizations in Indonesia.
The better relations with the US, and the willingness to oppose China in this timeline maybe the US would be more amenable to sell F-16s and other weapon systems to Indonesia. Do they still have embargo against Indonesia? Under Try's leadership I don't remember any human rights violation as the situation of East Timor and Aceh got resolved peacefully.
AURI / TNI-AU=
Workhorse = 200 Grippen E/F / F-16 Block 52 / F-2 Mitsubishi
Bomber = 40 TU-22M3 Backfire / Su-32
Heavy Fighter =80 Rafale / Su-35
Long Range SAM= 24 S-300 / Aster-30
Medium Range SAM = 72 Tor-M1 / Buk-M / Tunguska / Aster -15 / VL-MICA
Towed Gun= 150 Pantsyr-S1
AEWCS = E-3 Sentry and Beriev-50 AEWCS
Heavy Cargo= An-124 / C-17 Globalmaster
Light Cargo= Hercules
MPA= CN-235 ASW and P-3 Orion
ALRI / TNI-AL
Destroyer= 6 Iver Huitfeld / KDX-III / DZP / FREDA
Frigate= 20 KDX-II / Gorshkov / La-Fayette / Formidable
Corvette= 60 Sigma-10514 / Steregushchiy-class
LHD = 8 Dokdo / Juan Carlos / Misrtrall
LPD= 20 Makassar class
LST= 40 Teluk Bintuni
60 ASW Helicopter
1000 IFV BMP-3F
2000 APC BTR-4 / BT3F
50 MLRS Grad
TNI-AD / ADRI
1000 MBT Leopard 2A5/2A6 eks western Europe
2000 IFV Marder 1A3 eks Germany
5000 APC Anoa
80 MLRS Archer / Astros II
50 Pantsyr-S1
AURI / TNI-AU=
Workhorse = 200 Grippen E/F / F-16 Block 52 / F-2 Mitsubishi
Bomber = 40 TU-22M3 Backfire / Su-32
Heavy Fighter =80 Rafale / Su-35
Long Range SAM= 24 S-300 / Aster-30
Medium Range SAM = 72 Tor-M1 / Buk-M / Tunguska / Aster -15 / VL-MICA
Towed Gun= 150 Pantsyr-S1
AEWCS = E-3 Sentry and Beriev-50 AEWCS
Heavy Cargo= An-124 / C-17 Globalmaster
Light Cargo= Hercules
MPA= CN-235 ASW and P-3 Orion
ALRI / TNI-AL
Destroyer= 6 Iver Huitfeld / KDX-III / DZP / FREDA
Frigate= 20 KDX-II / Gorshkov / La-Fayette / Formidable
Corvette= 60 Sigma-10514 / Steregushchiy-class
Subsmarine = 12 U-214
LHD = 8 Dokdo / Juan Carlos / Misrtrall
LPD= 20 Makassar class
LST= 40 Teluk Bint
60 ASW Helicopter
1000 IFV BMP-3F
2000 APC BTR-4 / BT3F
50 MLRS Grad
TNI-AD / ADRI
1000 MBT Leopard 2A5/2A6 eks western Europe
2000 IFV Marder 1A3 eks Germany
5000 APC Anoa
80 MLRS Archer / Astros II
48 Apache Longbow attack helicopter
50 Pantsyr-S1
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I suggest for AURI they should have a high to low type for dual engine fighters such as:
Medium Fighter 72-84 Rafale (at least 6-7 Squadrons of 12 fighters)
Heavy Fighter 60-72 F-15s (at least 5-6 Squadrons of 12 fighters)
Since the country in size wise very big I thought we should focus on dual engine fighters for both range and endurance also with those numbers the AURI could have a fighter force of up to 132 or 156 that should be enough for the focus of the defense of the archipelago and maybe deploy some fighters outside the country (if the country that niat to actually send em). And bomber shouldn’t be necessary since F-15 and the Rafale are multiroles and has a quite big carrying capacity to conduct strike operations.
For AWACS maybe try pursuit to get Brazilian E-99 (for cost wise since it seems small and cheap) probably for up to 4-6 E-99.
And I suggest to focus on 3 types (Tactical, Strategic, Tanker). For Tactical you could get C-295 or C-130 while for Strategic you could get A400M or Kawasaki C-2. And for Tanker probably up to 4 A330 MRTT is should be enough. And I have a suggestion for organizational for the Air Force which are:
Major Commands
-Tactical Air Command (Main task to provide main fighter force for the country. Most of the combat aircraft and EW aircraft are under its command)
-Air Mobility Command (provide the air force and any part of the armed forces means of transporting goods by air)
Geographical Commands
-Air Forces West (1st Tactical Air Force)
Commanding all Air Force aircraft in the western part of the country.
-Air Forces Central (2nd Tactical Air Force)
Commanding all Air Force aircraft in the central part of the country.
-Air Forces East (3rd Tactical Air Force)
Commanding all Air Force aircraft in the eastern part of the country.
This is just a suggestion and if there are some parts here that are wrong or lacking please feel free to change it for correction.
true but technological wise the country still needs to learn a lot so buying things and conducting technology transfer, offsets, or license building will be the first way forward to have a capability of having a sustainable military industry.
It appears Indonesia will have the strongest military in the SEA. Perhaps it would also get S-300s and S-400s to protect the area from PLAAF bomber incursions. Maybe get some Russian shore defenses to protect the Natunas from the Chinese.
That’s probably a job that would be handled by the Army for SSM and mix air force and army for SAM and for obvious reasons not only the Natunas but also the Celebes sea, Makasar straits, the molluca and halmahera seas. Natuna would be the most heavily fortified since it’s the one facing South China Sea and the Malacca straits (since anything from Western Hemisphere would go through that part of the sea and also for obvious reasons the “9 dash line”). But it is necessary to know that the other area of seas needed to also be heavily fortified but maybe not to the level of Natuna since that’s where most of the action is.
I've been really enjoying you guys' discussion about ITTL's ABRI and this is some good input. Incidentally, there's going to be an ABRI-centric update coming up, not the next update but the update after that.
Some points:
-ITTL ABRI is not under any embargo from the US. The embargo has been butterflied away because OTL it was put in place in response to Indonesia's withdrawal from East Timor. ITTL, East Timor is still a part of Indonesia as a Daerah Istimewa (Special Region).
-At the moment there are no separatist unrest or at the very least, unrest that warrants attention at a presidential level.
-Yes ITTL, Try has purchased some weapons from Russia. The reason for that is that he's concluding the purchases which Soeharto was making just as the Asian Financial Crisis was starting in 1997. The only purchase from Russia that's ITTL only is the Yakhont Missiles which were purchased OTL during the SBY Presidency.
Some points:
-ITTL ABRI is not under any embargo from the US. The embargo has been butterflied away because OTL it was put in place in response to Indonesia's withdrawal from East Timor. ITTL, East Timor is still a part of Indonesia as a Daerah Istimewa (Special Region).
-At the moment there are no separatist unrest or at the very least, unrest that warrants attention at a presidential level.
-Yes ITTL, Try has purchased some weapons from Russia. The reason for that is that he's concluding the purchases which Soeharto was making just as the Asian Financial Crisis was starting in 1997. The only purchase from Russia that's ITTL only is the Yakhont Missiles which were purchased OTL during the SBY Presidency.
My guess here is Indonesia would purchase the Kilo-class submarines just like how Vietnam in OTL.
Hmm i forgot if this has been discussed before
but ITTL is try cracking down on corruption in military procurement?
but ITTL is try cracking down on corruption in military procurement?
Since there are not really any separatist unrest or any unrest at the moment it’s not surprising that the ABRI is going to start seeing things abt possible foreign competitors. In particular since this TL Indonesia going to be seen as a leader in the region in particular in the TL that Try is essentially challenging the PRC in the region. It felt now there is a need early on that the ABRI needed to think the possibility to expand more then ever for a future possibility of a high tier competition with another nation that is essentially an equal or more powerful than Indonesia. Not that a war would even exist but even in IRL Asia most of the Asian countries right now are moving from the typical doctrine and equipment of fighting against insurgents to now a more high tier or equal competitor. And I will bet in this TL when PRC started making those claims in South China Sea and making those artificial islands Indonesia would start challenging the claim and maybe even conducting their own freedom of navigation operations if the countries leadership is willing to conduct it. Especially with the fact that in this TL Indonesia would start have a close relationship with Vietnam and Philippines I bet the country would also started to strongly support both countries when PRC started making those claims. But still I hope domestic level problems would still be needed to not be neglected because we never know problems always appear in both domestic and foreign. But still since the current chapters are in the early 2000s War on Terror would be the main focus. But when the War on Terror happen PRC is also in the start of the growth that will make itself became like today IRL so a growth for ABRI is needed if this TL Indonesia wanted to start challenging the PRC in the future.