28th October 1999:
President Try Sutrisno had a meeting with Minister of Economics and National Development Planning Soedradjad Djiwandono and Chairman of KADIN Aburizal Bakrie. The President approved of Bakrie’s idea to hold an Infrastructure Summit to put on display infrastructure projects which are available in Indonesia and which are still on hold and attract private investment. Try ordered Soedradjad and Bakrie to hold this summit before the year was out.
29th October 1999:
Try had Friday Prayer and then lunch with the shareholders of his Pancasila Coalition: Chairman of DPR Harmoko, Chairman of ICMI BJ Habibie, former Chairman of DPR/MPR Wahono, Chairman of PPP Matori Abdul Djalil, Chairman of NU Abdurrahman Wahid, and Chairman of Muhammadiyah Amien Rais.
The meeting noted Sudharmono’s absence although the former vice president had been invited. The news doing the rounds was that while Sudharmono supported Try, he had never been comfortable with the idea of being in political conflict with Tutut.
Harmoko, widely seen to be positioning himself as second behind the President in the coalition’s pecking order, encouraged members of the coalition to be tough on Tutut if she “tries anything funny.”
1st November 1999:
The President and his delegation arrived this morning at Padang, West Sumatra and was welcomed by Governor Muchlis Ibrahim and Commander of the Northern Sumatra Regional Military Command Ahmad Yahya. After a welcome ceremony, Try and his delegation and welcoming committee got into their cars and began going through today’s itinerary.
First stop was the City of Padangpanjang. In a small ceremony also attended by Minister of Education Wardiman Djojonegoro and State Minister of Arts and Culture Subrata, Try inaugurated the Padangpanjang Arts Academy. Formerly a Musical Academy, the institution was converted into an academy covering all arts. To mark its recent conversion, the academy will be adding cultural artisanship and theatre arts to its courses.
After having lunch with the lecturers and the students there, Try made his way back to Padang. Here, accompanied by Minister of Industry Siswono Yudohusodo, Try inaugurated the Fifth Factory unit belonging to Semen Padang, a state-owned cement company. The establishment of the unit adds 2,3 million tones to Indonesia’s cement-producing capacity. Try spent the night in Padang.
2nd November 1999:
In the morning, Try flew to Pekanbaru, Riau. Accompanied by Minister of Health Azrul Azwar and Governor of Riau Syarwan Hamid, Try inaugurated Awal Bros Hospital which was a private general hospital. After taking a look around Pekanbaru to see the economic activity in the city, Try flew back in Jakarta.
At the DPR, Harmoko hosted Yusril Ihza Mahendra, Ahmad Sumargono, Husein Umar and other members of the Crescent and Star Forum, a discussion forum which had been active in Jakarta within the last 6 months. Yusril asked that the Special Administrative Region of Aceh Bill be amended to contain provisions acknowledging the place of Sharia Law in Aceh.
3rd November 1999:
The President, accompanied by Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Siswono Yudohusodo, Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti, and Head of BKPM Mari Pangestu today welcomed Japan’s Minister of International Trade and Industry Takashi Fukaya who brought with him a delegation from the Keidanren, Japan’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. In a press conference afterwards, Fukaya said that the Keidanren remains confident in Indonesia as a place to invest.
Minister of Home Affairs Harsudiono Hartas said that Indonesian law, not Sharia law, will be in effect in Aceh.
4th November 1999:
Cabinet Secretary Hayono Isman and OCDS Sugeng Subroto held a joint press conference to speak about what has been achieved in the 18 months since the stimulus package. Hayono Isman did most of the talking and reported the following among others:
*Of the 3,000 junior high school buildings, both state and Islamic junior high schools, 2,123 has been constructed.
*Of the 40,000 defence housing targeted, 28,678 has been constructed largely in Aceh, East Timor, Irian Jaya, and Maluku.
*Of the 80,000 houses refurbished in various cities and villages, 61,987 has been refurbished and this has mainly taken the form of tiling floors of dirt houses and improving roofings.
Sugeng Subroto said that he has gone around and inspected these projects himself. He said the scope of the stimulus was such that it has legitimately taken some time to construct these buildings though he pointed out there are elements of contractors trying to make a project go on for longer out of fear that there was no work waiting for them at the end of a project. Sugeng added the President has instructed that all the schools and housing construction targets be fulfilled by the two-year anniversary of the stimulus.
8th November 1999:
At Kebon Jeruk in Jakarta’s west, the President attended the launching of Metro TV which was owned by Surya Paloh and had Bambang Trihatmodjo as some of its investors. Interviewed by the media at the conclusion ceremony Minister of Information, Post, and Telecommunications Oka Mahendra said that it was a sign of the increasing sophistication of Indonesian viewers that there was a market for a news and documentary-oriented television network like Metro TV. He says that his department’s processing an application by Chairul Tanjung to establish his own television station.
In the Presidential Car afterwards, State Secretary Edi Sudrajat asks Try if Metro TV will be friendly towards him.
“Metro will be like RCTI, neutral but always leaning towards Tutut”, said Try “I’ve got TVRI, Anteve, and Indosiar anyway, I’m not too worried.”
9th November 1999:
In a ceremony at the Presidential Palace, the President today awarded the title of National Hero to Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Djatikusumo. A Prince from Solo, Djatikusumo rose to become the nation’s first Army Chief of Staff. The award had a personal aspect for Try. Djatikusumo was at the recruiter’s desk when Try signed up to join the Army. He liked Try enough to tell him to retake the entrance exam when Try failed the first time.
In a surprise announcement, Michel Camdessus announced his resignation from his post as IMF Managing Director. This resignation will take effect in February 2000. In the interview after the announcement, Camdessus expressed his confidence that the approach he has taken will continue. On Indonesia, he hopes that Indonesia will fall into line with the IMF’s “accepted practice” and that he wishes Indonesia was "more like Thailand" in terms of its adherence to the IMF.
10th November 1999:
The President had breakfast with Vice President JB Sumarlin, Minister of Foreign Affairs Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Soedradjad Djiwandono, and Mar’ie Muhammad with Edi Sudrajat and Hayono Isman sitting in as well. In a summary of the situation that the participants had no trouble agreeing with, Try declared that Camdessus is resigning and trying to make Indonesia one of his “last crusades”.
The meeting decided that with 7 weeks left in the year, economic activity in the nation was to be maximized. Sumarlin said that they could ride on the back of civil servants getting bonuses for the final three months of the year and Ramadan but he’ll see what he can do. Try added that as maximum as an economic growth as the economy will allow will show the world that Indonesia is strong.
“But that still doesn’t solve the issue of Camdessus, Mr. President”, said Ginandjar “He wants to pick a fight. It won’t impress him.”
“The ultimate goal is to get out of the IMF’s program and repay all the aid they’ve given us as soon as possible”, replied Try.
“If that is a short term aim it would be difficult, we would have to slow down economic growth because we’ll be directing our funds to repaying the IMF debt, Mr. President”, said Mar’ie looking worried.
“I know, which is why we’ll do the next best thing”, said Try “Make sure that the next IMF Managing Director, whoever he is, is friendly towards us.”
11th November 1999:
The President issued a circular to all departments and agencies calling for all spending to be diverted from routine matters (conferences, regional visits by officials, purchasing of new office equipment etc.) to projects coming under the department or agency’s purview in the aim of maximizing economic growth for the year. This diversion of funds to last until 31st December 1999.
The Vice President and Head of BNP2TKI Tosari Widjaja conducts a surprise inspection at Soekarno-Hatta Airport catching out officials trying to ask for bribes in dollars from Indonesian overseas workers returning home. Sumarlin said that such practices must stop because the foreign exchange brought home from other countries can help boost the economy.
12th November 1999:
In a press conference at Golkar Headquarters, Chairwoman of Golkar Tutut announced that she has appointed Sudharmono to chair the committee in charge of holding and overseeing the Golkar Provincial Congresses. The Provincial Congresses itself will begin to take place in the new year after the Eid’l Fitr Holidays.
Harmoko watched the press conference from his office in the DPR and grunted. Across the desk from him was Abdurrahman Wahid who was coming to visit and issue an invitation to the upcoming NU National Congress which will be held from 21st-27th November.
“He is the weak spot in the coalition and Tutut is taking advantage of that”, commented Wahid.
“We have a good coalition, it’s just that the President making his peace with Tutut makes us all nervous”, replied Harmoko “We don’t have a reason for existing if there’s peace with Tutut.”
“We have a reason and that is to provide the President with as broad a range of support among Indonesia’s mainstream political forces as possible”, said Wahid, nose twitching “And we still need him because Ginandjar and all his guys are Sudharmono's proteges.”
15th November 1999:
The President marked his 64th birthday by welcoming Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea Mekere Morauta. During their discussions, Morauta reiterated PNG’s stance that Irian Jaya was a legitimate part of Indonesia though he urged more cooperation at the Indonesia-PNG border so there was no need for incursions by ABRI forces into the PNG.
In a short ceremony, Try and Morauta witnessed Minister of Trade Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and PNG Minister of Trade and Industry Tukape Masani sign a bilateral trade agreement.
During their joint press conference, Try was asked about what he thought about Morauta who became prime minister just 4 months prior after a period of instability and who was now embarking on economic reform.
“Well, Indonesia is for stability not only within the country but also in all nations across the world, Indonesia supports those who are for stability in all nations across the world, and Indonesia is for stability in all nations across the world because it’s conducive for Indonesia’s development and economic growth”, said Try in a long tangent before finally remarking that “And Prime Minister Morauta is a positive force for that stability.”
16th November 1999:
After Morauta called on him for the final time before the Irian Jaya leg of his Indonesian visit, the President sat down with Ginandjar Kartasasmita and Edi Sudrajat to go over his upcoming overseas itinerary, which will include Germany.
“The Chancellor is Gerhard Schroeder, he’s been in office for around 14 months”, explained Ginandjar “He advocates a more assertive German foreign policy, he’s a natural partner for us in Europe if we ourselves would like to assert our presence on the world stage.”
“Anything else I need to know about Germany other than the fact that Habibie used to go to school and work there?” asked Try flipping through his notes.
“Germany and Schroeder may be important to us in our efforts to deal with the IMF”, said Ginandjar.
Try looked up from his notes.
“One person’s already put their hand up to become IMF Managing Director and that’s Stanley Fischer who’s first in the line of succession. Stanley Fischer of course being acceptable to Camdessus and US Treasury. But that goes against the accepted convention of Americans being charge of the World Bank and Europeans in charge of the IMF”, continued Ginandjar.
“So someone from Europe will emerge to go with the existing convention?” asked Edi.
“Precisely”, said Ginandjar “Camdessus is from France so it’s unlikely that Europe will support another candidate from there. That leaves us with Germany as the European nation most likely to nominate a candidate. There’s a good chance he’ll talk about this matter with you.”
17th November 1999:
JB Sumarlin conducted a surprise inspection of a Job Expo held in Surabaya to see how things were developing. Minister of Manpower and Small Business Fahmi Idris, who was attending the event, did not expect to see the Vice President there but ran across to him to bring him a piece of paper with a set of figures on it. Sumarlin looked at it with disbelief but was overjoyed.
Emerging out of a meeting with the President, Minister of Transportation Soerjadi Soedirja said the President has instructed him to strike a balance between getting rid of uneccesary bureaucracy and ensuring aviation safety. Soerjadi met the President on the occasion of reporting about applications fo the establishment of an Airline which the Department of Transportation had received.
Soerjadi also reported that the Seatbelt Inspectors program which had been formed as part of the May 1998 Stimulus Package to create employment is attracting 50% less applicants during the course of the year, which means that that people are finding “employment elsewhere”.
18th November 1999:
In a ceremony at the Presidential Palace, the President promoted Vice Admiral Indroko Sastrowiryono, presently Inspector General of ABRI, to the rank of admiral and swore him in as the new Navy Chief of Staff.
From swearing in the new Navy Chief of Staff, Try went around to Jakarta’s main markets for impromptu visits: Pasar Baru, Mangga Dua, and then ending up at Tanah Abang. Governor of Jakarta Sutiyoso heard about what the President was doing and joined him at Mangga Dua. Try greeted traders and buyers alike. The traders said that in the past few months the crowds have picked up again and that it’s expected to get extremely crowded for Ramadan, Christmas, and Eid’l Fitr holidays as people prepare to buy clothes and other goods for the holiday season. People there to buy make comments along the lines of “I’ve been working again” or “my business is starting to generate revenue again”.
19th November 1999:
It was still afternoon but Try was already at Halim Perdanakusuma Airport ready to depart for Berlin so that he could be there by tomorrow morning Berlin time. When he arrived, he went immediately to the Airport’s VIP Room accompanied by Edi Sudrajat. Sumarlin was waiting there. The Vice President had requested a meeting prior to the President’s departure for Germany. Sumarlin began talking to Try about his going to a Job Expo in Surabaya and what Fahmi Idris reported to him. Sumarlin produced a paper for Try to look.
“Look at this, Mr. President. According to the Department of Manpower and Small Business, in the Job Expos it has held in Indonesia over the last 6 months, the tourism sector is the largest participants in the Job Expo and the jobs they’ve offered have continued to grow. And yet at the same time, the tourism sector's participation as measured with a percentage is decreasing”, reported Sumarlin.
“…all the other sectors are catching up”, said Try with some disbelief as he looked the figures “They’re creating employment as well.”
“Yes, Mr. President”, said Sumarlin as he guided Try’s gaze “But that’s not all. Oil and gas are constant. But look here, manufacturing turned a corner in June and began recruiting more people to its factories. The services sector as well….Also the construction sector, they turned their corner in September with more and more suspended projects getting underway again.”
The Vice President brought another sheet of paper to the President.
“I got some statistics about electronics, some of the basic consumer goods people that people in every household are likely to have:
*Air conditioner: 96/97: 254,000 produced; 97/98: 299,700 produced; 98/99: 314,100 produced; current financial year: 350,000 produced and we’ve still got 3-4 months left in the financial year.
*Refrigerators: 96/97: 513,000 produced; 97/98: 590,000 produced; 98/99: 612,000 produced; current financial year 640,000 with 3-4 months left in the financial year.
*Lightbulbs: 96/97: 618 million produced; 97/98: 717 million produced; 98/99: 762 million produced; current financial year 844 million produced with 3-4 months left in the financial year”, explained Sumarlin.
“So they’re producing more this financial year than during the last, which was the worst part of the crisis”, concluded Try.
“Industries are producing more because there’s more demand for their products and because there’s more demand or their products they’re going to employ more workers to produce their products. And then those workers, those who use to be unemployed, they’re going to once again have income.
They’re not going to be as nervous about holding on to their money. They’re going to spend it to buy electronics, consumer goods, travel, whatever. They’re going to replace things which have grown old or obsolete like broken lightbulbs or old AC units.
The currency’s stable, the prices are quite predictable, why won’t they spend their money?
And then it goes around and around. The factories will receive more orders for their products and they’ll need to produce more and they’ll need to employ more.”
Try was thrilled. His mind went back to his visit to the markets in Jakarta and what all the buying and selling meant to the economy. He tried to contain his excitement by nodding gravely in response to Sumarlin’s economics lecture.
Sumarlin however can barely hide how excited he was.
“This is it, Mr. President”, he said “This crisis is coming to an end.”
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So there it is, assuming the correct steps are taken, the vested interests (BLBI, Tommy Soeharto’s monopolies) are taken on, and a balance is struck between policies that are pro-people and those that will please the market, by my count, Indonesia would probably be on the verge of coming out of the crisis some time in late 1999.
OTL, a combination of the economy reaching a really bad point ($1= Rp. 17,000 in January 1998) and political instability meant that the crisis couldn’t be said to have ended till what…late Megawati Presidency or early SBY?
Stats cited are from
https://www.bappenas.go.id/id/data-...rtanggungjawaban-presiden-tahun-1993-sd-1998/ specifically Chapter XII: Industry
There’s going to be a bit of an international flavor as we deal with the effects of Camdessus’ resignation. OTL, Camdessus also resigned in November 1999 with some diplomatic jockeying going on to find his replacement in the months afterwards.