For now it seems that no deal is leading, which simply means that oligarchs will turn to West and will support their interest against Russia in Ukraine.To sum it up there's no a good faith in geopolitics, if we want them we need to expect that USA won't interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. How much people believe in this is up to them.
Honestly, there will never be a good timeline no matter how much we try to make it...
Sounds interesting, lets wait and see what the other readers think2). While I am in general agreement of ruffino's position on the oligarchs, Kriss' points actually give me an idea, one in the making but an idea nonetheless:
The effects here will be three-fold:
- Reject the help of the oligarchs, but keep it quiet...
- Wait for the oligarchs to inevitably turn to the west/EU, then let them make some clearly public move (say, a massive business trip to London/Berlin/Washington/wherever or letting western leaders attend a political/economic conference of some sort primarily attended by the oligarchs); perhaps even wait a little longer until one or the other makes an unambiguous affirmation that the two groups will be working together for the foreseeable future.
- Publicly leak the oligarchs' initial offer to Russia.
I haven't fully developed the idea yet, and I'm certain there's a bunch of folds that need to be ironed out, but it's something I'm very interested in. Thoughts? Suggestions?
- The oligarchs' influence and authority collapse quickly as it is clear that they are willing to sell out Ukraine to whatever foreign power is interested in being their "sugar daddy" so to speak
- Russia will gain Ukrainian popular support for refusing to undermine the country's democracy for the sake of government influence.
- The west will be embarrassed and lose Ukrainian popular support for doing the exact opposite.
Georgia
oh yeah my mistakeNothing against others, even Armenia can be explained due to it wanting to avoid isolation but why did Georgia join CSTO? Especially since it has unresolved territorial question with Russia and rest of CSTO?
Edit: Also i reread the update and it says that Georgia joined only CIS and EEU.
I like this idea, I’m not fully convinced on how effective it will be, but it is interesting anyway.2). While I am in general agreement of ruffino's position on the oligarchs, Kriss' points actually give me an idea, one in the making but an idea nonetheless:
The effects here will be three-fold:
- Reject the help of the oligarchs, but keep it quiet...
- Wait for the oligarchs to inevitably turn to the west/EU, then let them make some clearly public move (say, a massive business trip to London/Berlin/Washington/wherever or letting western leaders attend a political/economic conference of some sort primarily attended by the oligarchs); perhaps even wait a little longer until one or the other makes an unambiguous affirmation that the two groups will be working together for the foreseeable future.
- Publicly leak the oligarchs' initial offer to Russia.
I haven't fully developed the idea yet, and I'm certain there's a bunch of folds that need to be ironed out, but it's something I'm very interested in. Thoughts? Suggestions?
- The oligarchs' influence and authority collapse quickly as it is clear that they are willing to sell out Ukraine to whatever foreign power is interested in being their "sugar daddy" so to speak
- Russia will gain Ukrainian popular support for refusing to undermine the country's democracy for the sake of government influence.
- The west will be embarrassed and lose Ukrainian popular support for doing the exact opposite.
Holy crap. That would be effective.2). While I am in general agreement of ruffino's position on the oligarchs, Kriss' points actually give me an idea, one in the making but an idea nonetheless:
The effects here will be three-fold:
- Reject the help of the oligarchs, but keep it quiet...
- Wait for the oligarchs to inevitably turn to the west/EU, then let them make some clearly public move (say, a massive business trip to London/Berlin/Washington/wherever or letting western leaders attend a political/economic conference of some sort primarily attended by the oligarchs); perhaps even wait a little longer until one or the other makes an unambiguous affirmation that the two groups will be working together for the foreseeable future.
- Publicly leak the oligarchs' initial offer to Russia.
I haven't fully developed the idea yet, and I'm certain there's a bunch of folds that need to be ironed out, but it's something I'm very interested in. Thoughts? Suggestions?
- The oligarchs' influence and authority collapse quickly as it is clear that they are willing to sell out Ukraine to whatever foreign power is interested in being their "sugar daddy" so to speak
- Russia will gain Ukrainian popular support for refusing to undermine the country's democracy for the sake of government influence.
- The west will be embarrassed and lose Ukrainian popular support for doing the exact opposite.