True, but don't get too focused purely on the role of the army as the sole response. The military response is guided by the intelligence arms, MI5 & MI6 and their in-country assets and networks. Both have a pretty good handle on who and where the significant players are, names and IDs. They just were largely constrained to remain within the boundaries of the law in their actions. A targeted response is not purely a military one. Gloves come off, and it will sweep up most of the known players by any means, aiming at getting them in hand through specific arrests and raids. The military response is an adjunct to this, not just a purely generic lock down, boots on the street, quell the dissent type of response, which seems to be the general perception of what is going to happen. It's going to be a general furball whatever happens, as key figures go underground and agitate for the civic unrest. But also, the freedom of action, the restraint in pursuing the core personnel under which they had operated up to now would be non-existent. Counter intelligence and using the information on both sides will act to get most of the tall poppies who are pivotal ASAP. How coordinated the response of the paramilitaries will reflect a loss or diminishing of the vital cadres and support framework. It wiill be a kick in the gut, which I don't have a good enough handle on to speculate on the overall effect. But remember this makes it a gloves off counter-terrorism intelligence war as well. It's not purely military.
WI: The IRA assassinateQueen Elizabeth II?
- Thread starter SlickerVyn
- Start date
Honestly think this should be in chat just from how many political things this thread makes me wanna say. I’ll comment if it’s moved I tell you that much.
If by the early 80's any member of the Provo's had seriously put forward a plan to assassinate the Queen the first thing that would happen would be they would be told, quite firmly "No" by everyone above them.
The second thing is that MI5 would have been informed about the plan as quickly as humanly possible because between the informers and individuals with connections every action would be taken to keep her alive.
The Provo's, while I wouldn't call them "smart", were canny bastards and knew that killing the Queen would be crossing a line they could never come back from. Even killing the PM wouldn't be as bad as that. The only time I could see them seriously considering it would have been at the absolute height of the anger in the Troubles, Bloody Sunday, and even then for it to actually have happened would require so many things to go perfectly "right" that the odds are astronomical.
So, all that out of the way, I see it working out somewhat like this:
Queen dies, probably takes Philip with due to the IRA not exactly being precision experts in an operation that would be needed for this. The moment it is confirmed to be the IRA (or more likely a splinter group there of) it becomes open day on anyone Irish in the UK, depending on the date, that means odds are my Father winds up in prison for being Irish and my Mother gets subjected to all the abuse in the world, up to possible violent and or sexual. To say it would be an outpouring of grief and anger would be charitable, the reality is that a large portion of society would be out for blood.
After that outbreak of violence, if the perpetrators have not already been killed, the second the IRA can get their hands on them they offer them up tied in a fucking bow to the British authorities, but that will not be enough. Thatcher will be already facing loud calls to resign for failing to keep the Queen safe, so to try and keep her office she'll double down and order the sort of crackdown in Northern Ireland that only the most delusional of Loyalist would want. It won't work, but it will satisfy the need for blood.
Speaking of the Loyalist community, the word "pogrom" comes to mind to describe just the level of state sanctioned violence they would now be forcing on the Nationalist community, expect families to flee to the Republic with little more than the clothes on their back and for the Bogside to resemble Cork in 1920.
The bombers won't be able to be executed, the law being as it is, but they will be subjected to the absolute most inhumane treatment that the British system can come up with, and used as a prime example of why the Irish can not be negotiated with whenever anyone on the international stage broaches that maybe Britain should calm down a bit.
In the Republic, the shit hits the fan. Almost any request for an extradition in relation to perceived IRA crimes would be quietly acquiesced to, simply due to the fact the alternative would not bare thinking about. A massive refugee wave from the North coupled with the already desperate state of the economy in the 80s will see Ireland become the basket case of the EEC and probably not able to meet the obligations to join the Eurozone when that gets going. Even Greek level book-cooking wouldn't manage that. Probably we wind up being the poorest country in the EU until such a time as Bulgaria joins, and even then...
The second thing is that MI5 would have been informed about the plan as quickly as humanly possible because between the informers and individuals with connections every action would be taken to keep her alive.
The Provo's, while I wouldn't call them "smart", were canny bastards and knew that killing the Queen would be crossing a line they could never come back from. Even killing the PM wouldn't be as bad as that. The only time I could see them seriously considering it would have been at the absolute height of the anger in the Troubles, Bloody Sunday, and even then for it to actually have happened would require so many things to go perfectly "right" that the odds are astronomical.
So, all that out of the way, I see it working out somewhat like this:
Queen dies, probably takes Philip with due to the IRA not exactly being precision experts in an operation that would be needed for this. The moment it is confirmed to be the IRA (or more likely a splinter group there of) it becomes open day on anyone Irish in the UK, depending on the date, that means odds are my Father winds up in prison for being Irish and my Mother gets subjected to all the abuse in the world, up to possible violent and or sexual. To say it would be an outpouring of grief and anger would be charitable, the reality is that a large portion of society would be out for blood.
After that outbreak of violence, if the perpetrators have not already been killed, the second the IRA can get their hands on them they offer them up tied in a fucking bow to the British authorities, but that will not be enough. Thatcher will be already facing loud calls to resign for failing to keep the Queen safe, so to try and keep her office she'll double down and order the sort of crackdown in Northern Ireland that only the most delusional of Loyalist would want. It won't work, but it will satisfy the need for blood.
Speaking of the Loyalist community, the word "pogrom" comes to mind to describe just the level of state sanctioned violence they would now be forcing on the Nationalist community, expect families to flee to the Republic with little more than the clothes on their back and for the Bogside to resemble Cork in 1920.
The bombers won't be able to be executed, the law being as it is, but they will be subjected to the absolute most inhumane treatment that the British system can come up with, and used as a prime example of why the Irish can not be negotiated with whenever anyone on the international stage broaches that maybe Britain should calm down a bit.
In the Republic, the shit hits the fan. Almost any request for an extradition in relation to perceived IRA crimes would be quietly acquiesced to, simply due to the fact the alternative would not bare thinking about. A massive refugee wave from the North coupled with the already desperate state of the economy in the 80s will see Ireland become the basket case of the EEC and probably not able to meet the obligations to join the Eurozone when that gets going. Even Greek level book-cooking wouldn't manage that. Probably we wind up being the poorest country in the EU until such a time as Bulgaria joins, and even then...
Off with the heads of the irish
The Devil’s Own will become a massive Hollywood epic ITTL
The Devil’s Own will become a massive Hollywood epic ITTL
Would any one care to discuss what the American response would be. In many ways the expat Irish community in the states, Boston, New York etc. persisted in taking a 'rose-tinted perspective to anything regarding the old country, (remarkably similar to its Jewish communities' view on support on Israel). Being a nation supremely preoccupied with lobbyist and vested interest, and their impact and manipulation of American politics, how do you perceive the response of those pro-Irish US based interest groups would be and how would they peddle their message? I may have a jaundiced view (which is to a degree influenced by the current US interaction with current events) but would there be much of a bleeding hearts groundswell, or would it be a "just look at what the British presence has made them do," kind of response. I can't help but be cynical, but anybody else's thoughts.
The biggest influence is this: it depends on when Elizabeth II dies. If she died 1988/1989, then Margaret Thatcher can use the popularity she'd get from striking back hard against the IRA to win an election - her party aren't getting rid of her in 1990 in this situation, so she could win the 1990/92 election and be around to 1995/97
I think that the posters who assume some sort of reflex violence by the British authorities are under estimating their measured restraint. It makes more sense to capitalise upon the tragedy politically rather than militarily. This is the same authorities who maintained contacts with PIRA which contacts led to the end of the Troubles and were willing to make huge compromises to achieve that end. It is a consistent policy of HMG that such conflicts are ended by politics ultimately and military/ police/intelligence actions are to contain the violence not a solution to them. For much of the Troubles, especially later, they had a better idea of the membership than PIRA itself did and could round up almost all of them within 48 hours if they chose to. As far as the Republic is concerned they feared PIRA as much as Stormont did and lived in perpetual fear that Britain would walk out of Northern Ireland and hand it over at short notice ‘as is’. Cynically the tragedy can be spun to further drive the moves to an agreement to end the Troubles. One must remember that the violence achieved little. It was the civil disobedience visible in the media which actually made a change in Northern Ireland to deal with inequalities to which both Westminster and Dublin closed their eyes for decades in the vague hope that it would either go away or become someone else’s problem later on.
While that could easily be the government’s official response, the Loyalist communities are having none of that. It’s gonna become a watershed moment in their identity’s history. They’ll commemorate this day every year as a solemn occasion, with Queen Elizabeth II being a martyr, unjustly killed by the mad, savage Irish. I expect in the first few years, they’ll be “retaliatory” attacks every anniversary as revenge.
And it’s very likely elements of the British Army will turn a blind eye to it. More so than in OTL.
After the assassination? I doubt that. Even hardliners probably realise that it would look really bad.
What makes you think they get a vote in the matter? The UK isn't some State in the United States Of Europe. No matter how much the ECHR likes to pretend otherwise they aren't the EEC equivalent of the US Supreme Court. Parliamentary Supremacy is the name of the game in the UK. As long as the death penalty is still the law for High Treason, that's the only thing that matters in the UK.
Now naturally that wont stop the European Court from issuing a ruling and demanding the UK obey anyway, so chances are after the assassination you'll end up with the ironic situation of British Europhilic Progressives hoping and praying for some trigger happy SAS men to kill the perpetrators "while resisting arrest" rather than them facing trial and EEC interference causing a massive rise in anti-EEC sentiment. Especially since the interference would likely come to nothing, meaning UK-EEC relations would be poisoned in both directions.
While it's very tempting an SAS death squad hunting down the perpetrators (no doubt the Special Forces and Intelligence Services would be very busy attempting to identify and eliminate/apprehend the perpetrators) its equally possible that whoever was involved in the assassination would also be in danger from the IRA and wider republican movement.
As others have already mentioned it is extremely unlikely that the IRA leadership would have sanctioned such a move for fear of the consequences.
This means any attempt on the Royal family would probably have been an "initiative" of lower level members.
If the Queen was indeed assassinated the Irish republican movement would have pretty much overnight seen its legitimacy and political, financial and practical support instantly evaporate and would be suffering greviously at the hands of the British security services response.
The wider Irish and Catholic community would probably also be feeling the effects to a certain degree.
If the perpetrators were able to avoid being caught by the British and were able to link up with the wider IRA things would probably turn very nasty for them very quickly.
They would have probably been subjected to quite brutal questioning along the lines of "who's idea was this" and "how could you have been so stupid" before ultimately being executed as a punishment for bringing down an utter catastrophe on the IRA and their bodies being dumped somewhere the British are likely to stumble across them (takes a bit of drive out of the British manhunt by giving them who they want and the dead can't talk).
Other non IRA republican groups would be if anything even more unforgiving as they too would likely be suffering the consequences of the perpetrators actions.
Where it gets interesting would be if the perpetrators manged to leave Britain and get picked up by a foreign government or the Republic of Ireland.
As others have already mentioned it is extremely unlikely that the IRA leadership would have sanctioned such a move for fear of the consequences.
This means any attempt on the Royal family would probably have been an "initiative" of lower level members.
If the Queen was indeed assassinated the Irish republican movement would have pretty much overnight seen its legitimacy and political, financial and practical support instantly evaporate and would be suffering greviously at the hands of the British security services response.
The wider Irish and Catholic community would probably also be feeling the effects to a certain degree.
If the perpetrators were able to avoid being caught by the British and were able to link up with the wider IRA things would probably turn very nasty for them very quickly.
They would have probably been subjected to quite brutal questioning along the lines of "who's idea was this" and "how could you have been so stupid" before ultimately being executed as a punishment for bringing down an utter catastrophe on the IRA and their bodies being dumped somewhere the British are likely to stumble across them (takes a bit of drive out of the British manhunt by giving them who they want and the dead can't talk).
Other non IRA republican groups would be if anything even more unforgiving as they too would likely be suffering the consequences of the perpetrators actions.
Where it gets interesting would be if the perpetrators manged to leave Britain and get picked up by a foreign government or the Republic of Ireland.
Anyone except for Gaddafi is going to hand them over the moment they know who they are. In theory they could go to Lebanon and disappear into the mess that is that area, but the British will spare no expense in finding them.
If they got picked up in the RoI the first available Aer Lingus plane in Dublin airport would be filled with as many armed detectives as possible and the perpetrators on a priority flight to London ASAP.
Either that or the perpetrators are under full high alert guard in Portlaois prison until the British can come collect them.
They might get away with offing Thatcher. But going for Queen Elizabeth would guarantee that they're wiped out.