A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation

[Jaenera Targaryen]

I said it once, I'll say it again... I'm always gonna be for Eurasian.

Likewise, even if it's always seemed like a long shot. Well, if that's the case, a compromise then? Instead of annexing Central Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Belarus and the Ukraine, why not form an EU-equivalent with them instead: The Eurasian Union (EU)*. The member states remain fundamentally independent, just sharing a single currency like back during the good ol' Soviet days, plus unified industrial and financial standards. Maybe include a unified command and support structure for the member states' militaries similar to NATO.

This way, we wouldn't have to build new political, economic, and military infrastructure from scratch, we just salvage the holdovers of the Soviet days, and bring them into the 21st Century. Military-wise, we all use the same hardware, from T-55s and T-72s, to Su-27s and MiG-29s. Economically, despite independence, Central Asia remains in Russia's economic sphere, and let's not forget the Central Asian SSRs were the last ones to leave the Soviet Union. A return to days of being part of a Great Power with global influence and prestige, while retaining the pride and dignity of national independence isn't that bad a deal, no?

*Yes, that's deliberate on my part. What do you mean we aren't part of the EU? Конечно, мы часть ЕС!

 

[dunHozzie]

The Eurasian Union (EU)*.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union it exists today

 

[TimTurner]

Gah I missed out on alerts.
What did I miss?

 

[TimTurner]

I back @Kriss options on all votes

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union it exists today

Even better, so it's not as...ahistorical, at all. But, surely we can do better than OTL, with only five members. We should include as many of the former Soviet states, with the Baltics as lost causes. Extend membership to other, non-former Soviet countries with historical ties to Russia/the Soviet Union, such as India or even Vietnam. Mongolia, perhaps? Iran? Serbia? Maybe woo some (Western) European Union countries to leave and join us instead, such as Hungary, or even Slovakia.

 

[Red Angel]

I'm for Iran and Mongolia honestly...

 

[daaaamdam]

I disagree. The Stans have extremely valuable resources for both regular industry and IT / Semi-conductor / solar pannel industry, which are mainstays of our economy now. Now we could do the American thing and base them and suck their resources out with money, but the OTL Russians are the reason they can do that. So I don't think that will work the same way.

I also don't think Turkic nationalism is a big problem, most of them hate corruption and poverty and love free education and decently priced healthcare as much as a Belarussian or Ukrainian. So their young & desparate already will come in large numbers. If they can't because we won't allow it, it will create resentment, which leads to my next point.

And yes, some of them will be terrorist. Just like there are Christian terrorist and other domestic terrorists, there will be Muslim terrorists. As can be seen OTL, the fact that this Russia hasn't captured / annexed / federated the Stans isn't saving them from it either. I'd argue a joint state with ITTL Union State that will make them richer, reduces corruption and provides healthcare and education would actually sway a lot of people to defend the state. And like it did in most European states, the more the Socialist welfare state worked, the less religion was a large part of people's decisions.

So TLDR; I think the resources (for industry), the people (to work and grow) and the buffer of their land is worth annexing them into the Union.

Exactly, plus that region is no stranger to being ruled by slavic majority polity (IIRC russian control of central asia was approximately 2 centuries, not including soviet union here)

 

[panpiotr]

small change of plans - the update will be on saturday

 

[Red Angel]

Good luck nonetheless.

 

[Kriss]

I disagree. The Stans have extremely valuable resources for both regular industry and IT / Semi-conductor / solar pannel industry, which are mainstays of our economy now. Now we could do the American thing and base them and suck their resources out with money, but the OTL Russians are the reason they can do that. So I don't think that will work the same way.

I also don't think Turkic nationalism is a big problem, most of them hate corruption and poverty and love free education and decently priced healthcare as much as a Belarussian or Ukrainian. So their young & desparate already will come in large numbers. If they can't because we won't allow it, it will create resentment, which leads to my next point.

And yes, some of them will be terrorist. Just like there are Christian terrorist and other domestic terrorists, there will be Muslim terrorists. As can be seen OTL, the fact that this Russia hasn't captured / annexed / federated the Stans isn't saving them from it either. I'd argue a joint state with ITTL Union State that will make them richer, reduces corruption and provides healthcare and education would actually sway a lot of people to defend the state. And like it did in most European states, the more the Socialist welfare state worked, the less religion was a large part of people's decisions.

So TLDR; I think the resources (for industry), the people (to work and grow) and the buffer of their land is worth annexing them into the Union.

Problem is our ability to annex them, we had this discussion already but it's quite unlikely that even Kazakhstan will want to join us voluntarily as they will have developed their national identity by then. It's far better that we control them via Euroasian Union.

Also there's no guarantee that what we will pull in Ukraine will be possible in Stan states, nor that USA, or even China will allow us to do that once again, heck it's quite possible that China outright asks that they annex Mongolia if we try to annex Kazakhstan and USA will outright oppose us. Allowing us to annex Ukraine will already be to much.

Plus there's entire matter of our state organization , we actually want to have Union State be centralized and functional state.

Likewise, even if it's always seemed like a long shot. Well, if that's the case, a compromise then? Instead of annexing Central Asia, the Caucasus, as well as Belarus and the Ukraine, why not form an EU-equivalent with them instead: The Eurasian Union (EU)*. The member states remain fundamentally independent, just sharing a single currency like back during the good ol' Soviet days, plus unified industrial and financial standards. Maybe include a unified command and support structure for the member states' militaries similar to NATO.

This way, we wouldn't have to build new political, economic, and military infrastructure from scratch, we just salvage the holdovers of the Soviet days, and bring them into the 21st Century. Military-wise, we all use the same hardware, from T-55s and T-72s, to Su-27s and MiG-29s. Economically, despite independence, Central Asia remains in Russia's economic sphere, and let's not forget the Central Asian SSRs were the last ones to leave the Soviet Union. A return to days of being part of a Great Power with global influence and prestige, while retaining the pride and dignity of national independence isn't that bad a deal, no?

*Yes, that's deliberate on my part. What do you mean we aren't part of the EU? Конечно, мы часть ЕС!

We already plan to do that via EEU, reverse Euromaidan will happen because we will push to reform EEU towards more centralized/political organization which will cause USA and Pro Western President in Ukraine to try to block it which will result in reverse Euromaidan and our intervention.

We don't need to have Union State adopt a new Euroasian identity over it opposed to Rus/East Slavic identity to better integrate Ukraine while we work to form Euroasian Union with Rus Union State at the centre of it.

Basically point of Rus identity is to integrate Ukraine easier while we work towards Euroasian Confederation with EEU members which include stan states, there we can try to sell Euroasian Civilization as our common identity like EU is trying to sell European identity to EU members.

But in terms of centralized Union State we will get once we annex Ukraine via force we want Union State to at least try to integrate Ukraine properly because given their GDP they will have decent living standards that will take a hit with our intervention, our common Slavic identity/history is only thing that binds us and we cannot afford to throw that out of the window .

We need to take multilayer approach to our expansion opposed to trying to send army and get everyone to join via force.

 

[Fratsup]

Problem is our ability to annex them, we had this discussion already but it's quite unlikely that even Kazakhstan will want to join us voluntarily as they will have developed their national identity by then. It's far better that we control them via Euroasian Union.

Considering that a significant portion of the population is Russian as is and that Kazakhstan has mostly remained a Russian ally I doubt it would actually get much anger or dispute within Kazakhstan if we did annex them.

Also there's no guarantee that what we will pull in Ukraine will be possible in Stan states, nor that USA, or even China will allow us to do that once again, heck it's quite possible that China outright asks that they annex Mongolia if we try to annex Kazakhstan and USA will outright oppose us. Allowing us to annex Ukraine will already be to much.

Why would China or the US care about Kazakhstan which is far away from any way for them to influence or even care about over Ukraine which the US and the rest of Europe care significantly more about to the point OTL the US and Europe support in in a war against us. Seriously Kazakhstan is so far away from their priority list that annexing Kazakhstan would see less international resistance than us annexing Ukraine. Even the author agrees since the Ukrainian annexation is going to lead to some sort of conflict there. Also who cares about Mongolia the place is practically already a Russo-Chinese tributary/puppet state as is, and even then China cares more about Taiwan than Mongolia.

 

[Kriss]

Considering that a significant portion of the population is Russian as is and that Kazakhstan has mostly remained a Russian ally I doubt it would actually get much anger or dispute within Kazakhstan if we did annex them.

That's assuming that Russian population didn't move to Russia given that it's far richer than otl and with the fact that Kazaks probably have far greater population growth than Russians in Kazakhstan as they don't have access to benefits Russians in Union State have.

Why would China or the US care about Kazakhstan which is far away from any way for them to influence or even care about over Ukraine which the US and the rest of Europe care significantly more about to the point OTL the US and Europe support in in a war against us. Seriously Kazakhstan is so far away from their priority list that annexing Kazakhstan would see less international resistance than us annexing Ukraine. Even the author agrees since the Ukrainian annexation is going to lead to some sort of conflict there. Also who cares about Mongolia the place is practically already a Russo-Chinese tributary/puppet state as is, and even then China cares more about Taiwan than Mongolia.

No one cares but we should definitely want Mongolia to be a buffer between us and China opposed to being annexed by the China and while China cares about Taiwan they will also probably take us annexing lands in Central Asia as a free passage to get some as well, or will remain neutral if West tries to oppose us. Point being that Mongolia is Russo-Chinese puppet State opposed to being only under Chinese influence.

In case of Kazakhstan/Stans and the West? They didn't care about Afghanistan as well but that doesn’t mean that they cannot exploit Russian expansion in Central Asia and make Afghanistan on steriods from it.

No one wants to see Russia reestablish complete and direct dominance over resources of Central Asia which are as important as those of Ukraine for that matter. If we try to pull what we did with Ukraine on Central Asia you can expect that they'll do Afghanistan on us. What matters here are resources Central Asia has, not where it is located and no one wants to see us gaining dominance over it, heck entire point of reverse Euromaidan is USA not wanting centralization of EEU.

On second hand we want to control those resources and the best way to approach is to get those states to give up their sovereignty to us voluntarily via EEU integrations.

 

[Fratsup]

That's assuming that Russian population didn't move to Russia given that it's far richer than otl and with the fact that Kazaks probably have far greater population growth than Russians in Kazakhstan as they don't have access to benefits Russians in Union State have.

Why would they? If anything Russia doing well would drive further immigration of Russians into Kazakhstan due to lower prices on everything plus the pre-existing Russian population. Plus we and the Russian people would hold an even greater amount of influence on Kazakhstan due to how well we are doing.

In case of Kazakhstan/Stans and the West? They didn't care about Afghanistan as well but that doesn’t mean that they cannot exploit Russian expansion in Central Asia and make Afghanistan on steriods from it.

How? Afghanistan had a prior history of being independent and a far longer history when compared to modern Kazakhstan, along with significantly more ideological driven motivation to attack any would be invaded. Even the terrain and political situation is different that the US wouldn't be able to push for an Afghanistan situation even if they wanted to, which I doubt they do considering the whole war on terror and Islamic radicalism.

No one wants to see Russia reestablish complete and direct dominance over resources of Central Asia which are as important as those of Ukraine for that matter. If we try to pull what we did with Ukraine on Central Asia you can expect that they'll do Afghanistan on us. What matters here are resources Central Asia has, not where it is located and no one wants to see us gaining dominance over it, heck entire point of reverse Euromaidan is USA not wanting centralization of EEU.

For starters resources have less to do with it and far more the perception of expansion and moves into other nations perceived areas of influence. Central Asia has been our territory/area of influence for decades and the last time the US tried to gain influence ut ended in a failed US pacification of Afghanistan. There is no way the US would care more on Central Asia over Ukraine which would push Russias influence/border towards NATO members and greater influence over the Black Sea and Eastern Europe in general. Seriously the US would prefer Russian annexation of Kazakhstan over Ukraine.

 

[Kriss]

Why would they? If anything Russia doing well would drive further immigration of Russians into Kazakhstan due to lower prices on everything plus the pre-existing Russian population. Plus we and the Russian people would hold an even greater amount of influence on Kazakhstan due to how well we are doing.

??? Why are people from the Balkans emigrating to Russia, or Western Europe ITTL despite those states doing better? Yes Russians in Russia are doing better but those in Kazakhstan aren't. They have Kazakhstani standards of living while Russians across the border have our. So yea those near the border may cross to Kazakhstan to buy things but they as heck won't live and work there.

Same goes with young Russians born in Kazakhstan. They will emigrate to Russia in search of job and better living opportunities. Just like people from Central Asia are emigrating to Russia so are young and middle aged Russians doing it in search of better life's and business opportunities. Emigration isn't selective on nationalities, those from poorer countries are going to richer countries and we are reciving a lot of emigration from Central Asia, primary Russians.

How? Afghanistan had a prior history of being independent and a far longer history when compared to modern Kazakhstan, along with significantly more ideological driven motivation to attack any would be invaded. Even the terrain and political situation is different that the US wouldn't be able to push for an Afghanistan situation even if they wanted to, which I doubt they do considering the whole war on terror and Islamic radicalism.

Kazakhstan had enough time to develop it's national identity, on top of having different religion and those regions being conquered by Russian Empire at lot later date and not really being as integrated.

By ceartin logic Chechnya would also accept integration, but they aren't doing thwt despite being under Russian Empire far longer than Central Asia and from around 20 mil people in Kazakhstan there are significant number of people that would be radicalized by our attempts at invasion. Afghanistan before Soviet invasion was a lot more open then after it. Give radicals a popular cause and a motive and you'll see that there will be a lot if people willing to fight against Russian invasion.

For starters resources have less to do with it and far more the perception of expansion and moves into other nations perceived areas of influence. Central Asia has been our territory/area of influence for decades and the last time the US tried to gain influence ut ended in a failed US pacification of Afghanistan. There is no way the US would care more on Central Asia over Ukraine which would push Russias influence/border towards NATO members and greater influence over the Black Sea and Eastern Europe in general. Seriously the US would prefer Russian annexation of Kazakhstan over Ukraine.

That's true, USA would definitely care a lot about Ukraine but you should also consider Ukraine a gift from @panpiotr . Normaly they would sanction hell out of us and would have armed the rebels in Ukraine. As for sphere of influence? Yes USA may "respect " our sphere of influence if they think that they cannot do anything against us there but why should they do it if we make a mistake? They will exploit that as hell in hopes of not only draining us like in Afghanistan but also in hopes of kicking us from Central Asia.

Sphere's of influence only matter as long as you can hold on them and as long as you don't show to much weakness, don't overstep ceartin boundries. If we start annexing things right and left like Germany before WW2 people will spook out and given our economic power and our apparent willingness to annex anything that once belonged to us West will start seeing us as a main threat instead of China who for all intents and purpose's isn't invading anyone yet. They will also feel compelled to act because if they don't what will stop China from doing the same with territories that it wants and are under American protection?

If we start annexing things USA will be forced to act not only to protect Eastern Europe from us but also to deter China. They won’t appease us on every step.


Honestly this is why i was against annexation of Ukraine without realistic consequences. Once you allow it people suddenly want to annex anything while doing halfhearted concessions that are quite unrealistic.

I even believe that i mentioned it in discussion about Ukraine before.

 

[Fratsup]

Kazakhstan had enough time to develop it's national identity, on top of having different religion and those regions being conquered by Russian Empire at lot later date and not really being as integrated.

By ceartin logic Chechnya would also accept integration, but they aren't doing thwt despite being under Russian Empire far longer than Central Asia and from around 20 mil people in Kazakhstan there are significant number of people that would be radicalized by our attempts at invasion. Afghanistan before Soviet invasion was a lot more open then after it. Give radicals a popular cause and a motive and you'll see that there will be a lot if people willing to fight against Russian invasion.

By this metric would Ukraine not also not be possible to annex? I mean the Ukrainians have a national identity otherwise they would not be resisting as hard OTL or even previously, so why would Kazakhstan be any harder? One cannot even go for the whole Muslim excuse since the Kazakh have barely been of the Islamic type that the Afghan and other of their type have been characterized by. I mean this metric Ukraine will just end up in a similar situation to OTL.

why should they do it if we make a mistake? They will exploit that as hell in hopes of not only draining us like in Afghanistan but also in hopes of kicking us from Central Asia.

How are they even going to do that? I mean it would be one thing if we tried to annex Uzbekistan but I am talking about Kazakhstan which is right next to us. Plus the reality is that any one who would be against us is going to be the same Islamist that the US is fighting against. Finally why would the Kazakhs even fight an Afghanistan like situation? The entire region is heavily centered around major cities and significantly less urban than Afghanistan and significantly less politicized which I doubt any attempt at annexation would lead to mass support for a Afghan level insurgency. I mean a significant amount of Afghanistan was rural with the modernized urban core being significantly divided from the rest of the country, this is simply not true with Kazakhstan.

Sphere's of influence only matter as long as you can hold on them and as long as you don't show to much weakness, don't overstep ceartin boundries. If we start annexing things right and left like Germany before WW2 people will spook out and given our economic power and our apparent willingness to annex anything that once belonged to us West will start seeing us as a main threat instead of China who for all intents and purpose's isn't invading anyone yet. They will also feel compelled to act because if they don't what will stop China from doing the same with territories that it wants and are under American protection?

The US and large portions of Europe already see us like that. I mean we are going to annex Ukraine, that gives us more of a sense of danger than Kazakhstan ever would not counting the whole Slavic republic bit we will push which is going to scare all of western Europe further into the American camp. This also assumes the US/West will not be terrified of both China and Russia and not see them as some form of Eurasian Axis anyways.

If we start annexing things USA will be forced to act not only to protect Eastern Europe from us but also to deter China. They won’t appease us on every step.

We already pushed them into that with our previous actions and almost inciting WW3 and annexing Ukraine is going to push that even further. Acting as if annexing Kazakhstan would be any more likely to cause this is just not true at all.

Honestly this is why i was against annexation of Ukraine without realistic consequences. Once you allow it people suddenly want to annex anything while doing halfhearted concessions that are quite unrealistic.

I mean I agree but this is how people wanted the timeline to go and frankly there is not a lot we could have done since most people seem to not want to play ball with the US which is understandable but what are you going to do?

 

[Kriss]

By this metric would Ukraine not also not be possible to annex? I mean the Ukrainians have a national identity otherwise they would not be resisting as hard OTL or even previously, so why would Kazakhstan be any harder?

It wouldn't be possible as any normal attempt to annex it would result in otl Euromaidan and response from the West, heck you can even forget Trump giving us some sort of deal as otl after Crimea he couldn't even meet with Putin without attacks from the Congress. He would have been strongarmed into sanctioning us and into backing Ukraine, in Ukraine itself we would basically need to put a country under martial law as entire Ukraine falls appart and half of the country rises against us. This is what normaly would have happen and as i said annexation of Ukraine is a gift, or a Plotarmor for us to make the story more interesting as otherwise most of the people would have hard time going for it.

One cannot even go for the whole Muslim excuse since the Kazakh have barely been of the Islamic type that the Afghan and other of their type have been characterized by. I mean this metric Ukraine will just end up in a similar situation to OTL.

Normaly Ukraine would end up like that and Kazakhstan had plenty of time to revive it's national identity, but without explicit guarantee from panpiotr that we will get Kazak blank check if we just say pretty please and promise to reform in " more equal " state we will get to annex Kazakhstan.

But by that metric EU will basically centralize, create an army and become European Federation because nationalism doesn't exist and people are willing to throw away their statehood for living standards. Honestly if we go along with Ukraine and Kazakhstan i say we should have Europe centralize so it may become functioning superpower and let's have China annex Taiwan peacefully as people there begin to understand that One state two Systems is ideal solution for them opposed to living in fear of Chinese invasion.

How are they even going to do that? I mean it would be one thing if we tried to annex Uzbekistan but I am talking about Kazakhstan which is right next to us. Plus the reality is that any one who would be against us is going to be the same Islamist that the US is fighting against. Finally why would the Kazakhs even fight an Afghanistan like situation? The entire region is heavily centered around major cities and significantly less urban than Afghanistan and significantly less politicized which I doubt any attempt at annexation would lead to mass support for a Afghan level insurgency. I mean a significant amount of Afghanistan was rural with the modernized urban core being significantly divided from the rest of the country, this is simply not true with Kazakhstan.

Aufganistan was right next USSR and that didn't stop them. Also USA retreated from Irak from what i get and they'll retreat from Afghanistan as well. Some hill people are far less of a threat than reisurgent Russian Imperialism. If anything supporting islamists makes sense in this scenario as that way they can cause unrest in Russia.

Also nationalism does exist.

The US and large portions of Europe already see us like that. I mean we are going to annex Ukraine, that gives us more of a sense of danger than Kazakhstan ever would not counting the whole Slavic republic bit we will push which is going to scare all of western Europe further into the American camp. This also assumes the US/West will not be terrified of both China and Russia and not see them as some form of Eurasian Axis anyways.

This assuming we have a formal alliance with China abd that China won't sit this one out and profit while USA/Europe decides to normalize relationship with them so they can restart Cold War with Russia. This is what they would normaly do in this kind of situation.

China isn't annexing anyone, Russia is. It's clear which of these powers is painting obvious target on its back.

We already pushed them into that with our previous actions and almost inciting WW3 and annexing Ukraine is going to push that even further. Acting as if annexing Kazakhstan would be any more likely to cause this is just not true at all.

Im assuming that we aren't getting blank check to suddenly annex entire post Soviet Space expect from the Baltics and that USA/EU do have some common sense left. Also im acting as nationalism exists/people want to be independent because if it doesn't then nothing is stopping EU from centralizing and China from resolving Taiwan via rigged elections and with pro unification Party on power.

Also USA can annex Canada and Greenland peacefully. Plus install puppet state in Venezuela and reestablish it's hegemony over entire Americas.

mean I agree but this is how people wanted the timeline to go and frankly there is not a lot we could have done since most people seem to not want to play ball with the US which is understandable but what are you going to do?

Yes people wanted Ukraine without consequences. That's true.

But then again there really isn't any point in any discussion because whatever we chose will go our way anyway.

 

[Fratsup]

Aufganistan was right next USSR and that didn't stop them. Also USA retreated from Irak from what i get and they'll retreat from Afghanistan as well. Some hill people are far less of a threat than reisurgent Russian Imperialism. If anything supporting islamists makes sense in this scenario as that way they can cause unrest in Russia.

Afghanistan was in the periphery of the USSR and even then was not closely connected to the Soviets at all. That is before one considers that Pakistan was an easy way for the west to send arms across and a way to train and hold Afghan fighters away from Soviet retaliation. Kazakhstan is much closer to our core, has a large Russian minority and lacks easy access to American arms.

Also I think you underestimate the general hatred people would have of Islamic extremists especially considering that if we do annex Kazakhstan the Arab Spring and its consequences would be in full swing. Considering ISIS and the rise of mass Islamic terrorism the Islamic threat would very much still be a thing and would lead to a general dislike of anyone supporting any Islamic extremists.

He would have been strongarmed into sanctioning us and into backing Ukraine, in Ukraine itself we would basically need to put a country under martial law as entire Ukraine falls appart and half of the country rises against us. This is what normaly would have happen and as i said annexation of Ukraine is a gift, or a Plotarmor for us to make the story more interesting as otherwise most of the people would have hard time going for it.

I mean I do believe the changes that have happened mean that unlike OTL the Russian invasion of Ukraine would be vastly different with most of Ukraine being under Russian control and the west being the main area of resistance which would have a much harder time resisting than OTL both on our better position and just due to having less man overall. The scenario of Russia steamrolling across the country if far more likely here than OTL.

This assuming we have a formal alliance with China abd that China won't sit this one out and profit while USA/Europe decides to normalize relationship with them so they can restart Cold War with Russia. This is what they would normaly do in this kind of situation.

The hard part about this is that China would be significantly more dependent on our resources and while not allying with us will most likely not ally with the west either as China at this point wants to be the top dog and not a Western puppet. Plus China's own internal problems are going to cause issues with the west no matter what as they try to stabilize themselves and become more willing to look for outside opponents to unify their people.

I mean just look at OTL and consider that the US has not become friendlier to China even with the whole Russo-Ukrainian situation.

Im assuming that we aren't getting blank check to suddenly annex entire post Soviet Space expect from the Baltics and that USA/EU do have some common sense left. Also im acting as nationalism exists/people want to be independent because if it doesn't then nothing is stopping EU from centralizing and China from resolving Taiwan via rigged elections and with pro unification Party on power.

Its not like we can stop what the EU plans other than say causing divisions between Eastern and Western Europe. If anything I do see Eastern Europe uniting as a way to stop us and our growing influence uncaring of what Western Europe wants.