But if they can arrange it "a plague on both their houses" likely remains Belgium's preferred option.
8mm to the Left: If Hitler Died in 1923
- Thread starter KaiserKatze
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That would be a waste of resources because they are not needed for the Baltic and of dubious utility in the North Sea.
They could build a couple of CVLs for Pearl Harbor/Taranto raids on Scapa Flow and other targets... but it's likely more trouble than it's worth.
I will say this--Germany WILL gain at least one overseas foothold, and WILL need a navy to properly bind themselves to that territory, but more than that necessary naval connection, they do not plan anything major
actually post ww1 belgium tried to claim almost half of (neutral) netherlands because 'they were too friendly to the germans'
the dutch claims are over century old (and no longer pursued), while the belgian irredentist claims are very recent.
on the other hand the french claims never went away
also belgium at this point is essentially the francophone south suppressing the dutch speaking north. so cosying up to their french brethren when they fear the north becoming more volatile is def a possibility.
the moment a threat appears their minds will clear up rather fast
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all it needs is the plane carrying franco being shot down at the start and it will fizzle - it is one of those random things that can happen
The Spanish Civil War was already close at many points. Italy contributed more to the war in pure numbers if I remember correctly, largely at German pressure since Germany did not want to risk getting fully drawn in. A lot of potential ripples can come from that, though. Perhaps with no Nazi pressure, the Italian force isn't as big and also lacks the German military advisement. Perhaps, without the Nazis, Italy doesn't feel confident enough to get involved. Perhaps the new French government is willing to openly aid one side.
This is also assuming that there are no personal ripples or stupid decisions which tip the balance.
Remember that Franco only got to the leadership position because the guys who were above him at the start all died in plane crashes, plus another got himself captured by the Republicans - i think it's more likely that one of them survives instead.
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The Spanish Civil War is easily up in the air, firstly because chances are that Franco isn't the one in charge given that he only ended up as the leader of the Nationalists due to sheer dumb luck, no idea whether the other leaders were more competent or in a better position, or can unite the Right like Franco did. Secondly, the Republicans were their own greatest enemies, repeatedly bungling offensives, and engaging in infighting during a time where unity was all important, not helped by Moscow's meddling.
The conflict is easily influenced by many butterflies, so it could go either way IMO.
According to my current plans, the Spanish Civil War will be shorter than IRL, but its end and the associated aftereffects will have more of a profound effect on Europe than it did IRL
Yes...died in plane crashes
Ramontxo
Donor
Both my parents were, absolutely, convinced of trueness of that insinuation. But at least Sanjurjo's one was probably an real accident. Mola collision with a mountain in the mist is full of conspiracy theories.
Yeah, I don't really see Germany investing a ton into the navy beyond coastal defense and a bit of prestige, as well as protecting whatever overseas colony they gain; I'm assuming Northern Namibia is going to be the most realistic target, considering it's sparsely populated and easily seized by the British and South Africans. Here's a sketch I made of what I'd think would be Germany's new Südwestafrika:
Attachments
The Lion of Africa would not settle for anything less than Tanganyika, (Yes he would, but I would not)
I really do hope we don't get a Republican spain. Because I think it would be a missunderstanding of why the civil war took OTL curse. First off, to assume German help was vital to the nationalist effort would be a great mistake. The germans certainmly proved helpful but their involvement was only crucial in getting the african army to the mainland. The Nazi airlift is probably the most critical part of the whole german involvement.
You see Franco was rather incompetent to say the least and I frankly believed under more competent leadership, the nationalist could have achieved much faster succes. First off, the Republicans simply lacked any structured command and army leadership for the first and half years of the war. The Army had almost in it's entirety declared for the nationalists and what few loyal generals remained were quickly purged by the republican administration. The Nationalist on the other hand, had a professional and seasoned army with the army of Africa and the Legion which was very pretty well equiped and had quite competent leadership. In addition they had most regulars on their side, and the loyalty of a good chunk of the civil guard (only half joined the cause at first but throughout the war lots of republican guards defected). Meanwhile the republicans had a deeply unorganized mess of an army, poorly equiped and made mostly of volunteers. In addition the left was just more intrinsecaly divided than the right and was much less suited for a war. The Carlists and falangists at the outsed had thousands of fighters well organized into quite sizeable forces with their own officers which were quickly and effectively incorporated into the army even before Franco assumed full power.
In fact, Madrid stood by the skin of its teeth, the republican government abandoned the city. At the same time, the nationalists plans were discovered by some papers discovered in an italian volunteer's pocket. And I've read some books were it's stated that had Franco not ordered for the Alcazar of Toledo to be relieved, Madrid would have fallen. Franco overall, was regarded as a pretty poor commander for his whole career and when in charge of the infantry academy of Zaragoza it was known that military knowledge was relegated in favour of political education. And it is also well known that he deliveratly made the war longer in order to get an unconditional surrender from the republicans.
Though for all of this to happen I must recognize the airlift was crucial and the continued air support also provided quite a bit of help. But to that I have two counterarguments, first off, Italy could be convinced to provide a replacement airlift which would have been slower but still effective and that I see no reason for Von Letow to not at least provide some kind of support, specially if Franco isn't around. Let's not forget, Von Letow is a deep conservative and providing some support even if not at the Nazi level is good for his agenda. Effectively getting an ally in the form of Spain can be very useful against France if push ever comes to shove and Spain has a mineral he desperately needs, Wolframium, which I'm pretty sure the germans would require in this timeline because much of the early german rearmament was already going on before the Nazis.
I would keep ranting about the political instability and all the advantatges and disadvantatges each side had, but this is already pretty long so I'll leave it as is. I might be completely wrong and afterall it's your TL and I'm sure most of the things that happen you have dedicated many to hours to reserch and ponder. This is just my opinion and by no means it's a universal and you have every right to disagree with my take. All in all cheers!
That wouldn't be a satisfactory division. Basically all remotely usable seaports wind up under British/South African control (from what i'm seeing Swakopmund seems to be just outside of the German area), and then how Germany's going to acess the place?
And plus, South West Africa under the Germans was their main settler colony, and this division basically leaves most of the best places in South African hands, and considering the climate of that part, this leaves Germany with a nearly inacessible and mostly unsuitable area for colonization.
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I’d even argue that L-V is ideologically closer to Franco than the Nazis ever were.
As much as I would love for Germany to gain Namibia, as well as feeling that it was the one which Britain would've been most OK with parting with, there is a bigger problem: The South Africans will never allow it. Their designs on all of Southern Africa would not let them hand over an inch of land.
Oh definitely, though that's also because the Nazis were deeper into crazy than I think any of us will ever really know. But you are absolutely right in that he supports the Nationalists ideologically. However, even if he WANTS to massively back them, he is in a position not dissimilar to France was IRL, whereby doing so too extensively risks the internal political stability of his own nation, especially with the SPD now veering hard towards the Stalinist Line.