WI Kentucky secedes?

Lincoln saw his birth state of Kentucky as having huge strategic importance, and not without reason. With a border on the Ohio, the Confederate Army could make assaults into the also strategically important states of Ohio and Indiana.

So would one border state deciding to join the Confeds after Fort Sumter make enough of a difference for a Southern victory?
 
No. Kentucky itself was divided between Unionists and Seccesionists, moreso than Tennesse or Missouri. The only way to get Kentucky to LEAVE neutrality in favor of the Confederacy is a direct attack or occupation of it by the Union. Nothing short of that, except maybe the threat of emancipation, would have made it budge. In reality, it was because Confederate forces had marched into Kentucky that it swung decisviely to the Union in the first place.

For the Confederacy, it is actually better for them, as I stated on another question which I have mentioned previously, that Kentucky remain neutral, thus protecting most of Tennessee from Union occupation, and condensing the Western Theater. Kentucky's seccession as you put it would probably be no different than Missouri's actual seccession.
 
What was it Lincoin said, "I can do without God but I must have Kentucky" (I'm paraphrasing here), probably the North has a pretty bad time early in the war, but eventually their vastly larger manpower and industral strength kick in and the South is eventually rolled back as OTL. The wild card of course is what Britain and France do if the South does better, if they choose to recognise the CSA or even worse break the blockade...Well that would be an interesting day, and Britain gets a nasty stain on it's national soul, (How could we have even thought about recognising a nation based on slavery:rolleyes:)
 

Xen

Banned
Suppose then the CSA doesn't make such a rash invasion -- then it at least becomes more likely.

Or they could secede prior.

What about a blatant Union assault on Charleston? Say a different President (John Fremont) is elected in 1860, the South will still secede for the same reasons. If he brazenly decides to send his armada into Charleston Harbor guns blazing so Fort Sumpter could be resupplied, border states like Kentucky may swing towards the CSA.

Of course this may not be Fremonts style, but there were certainly some in the Union who wouldnt have minded to see a scenario like that believing the Secessionist could not resist after being given a real fight.
 

Deleted member 16736

Honestly, Kentucky's state legislature shot down any prospect of even VOTING on secession. I doubt there was much of anything that would get them to leave the Union in 1860-61. Unless of course Kentucky's favorite son, John Breckinridge, took a more anti-Union stance rather than following the will of his state's legislature.

Perhaps there's something I'm missing, though.

Nevertheless, you would have to contend with a new fish in the pond for Confederate Leadership. What really happened was that Breckinridge stayed with the Union until he was chased out for treason. Afterwords he became a brigadier general for the CSA. If he HADN'T waited so long, he might have found himself in a higher up leadership position within the Davis administration if he wasn't the president himself. So that would be a HUGE butterfly in the CSA if they had Kentucky from the outset.

Could he have changed the tide of the war? Maybe, but I seriously doubt he could have done a better job than anyone who they had in place at that time.
 
Missouri vs. Kentucky. IIRC, the two states had different circumstances at the start of the war. Both had Pro-Southern Governors and State Legislatures. Missouri was kept in the Union by force of arms. But in Kentucky it was elections that changed the complexion of the State Legislature to veto-proof majorities (Pro-Union) rendering Governor Beriah Magoffin totally impotent. He eventually resigned. When Generals Polk and Pillow (NOT competent generals) crossed the border, the stage was set for Kentucky's entry into the war as a "Union" state. Grant was given permission to cross over into the state, and the rest is history.

BTW, I personally think there MUST have been some people in the South who could have done better than Davis!
 
Top